Summary and outlook before the Fed's July meeting:
1. Rate cuts twice this year. But inflation will not be solved all at once, and the rate cut speed next year is questionable
2. Economic fundamentals are mild, with a soft landing
3. The issuance of long-term U.S. bonds is difficult to control, and long-term interest rates will ignore rate cuts and remain high for a long time
4. Asset differentiation: bearish for liquid assets, bullish for profitable companies
5. The profits of large companies in 24 years can continue to be amazing, but at some point in 25 years, they will not be able to match the increasingly high expectations
6. By then, the market needs to truly "reset" the mindless gains since last year
And this process will not be as fast as the two adjustments this year, it will take time. There will definitely be a tightening of U.S. dollar liquidity, and then it will be liquid assets and marginal assets that will fall more. Except for BTC, most coins should be 5-10% of the current price
7. Whether the Fed pays for the stock market depends on inflation: and there are too many inflation factors, such as immigration, Sino-US trade, etc., and the overall attitude of the two parties is that the Republicans have high inflation and the Democratic countries are in chaos.