Scenario 1: If ETF is approved in July or August, interest rates will be cut in September
1. July and August
The market may continue to fluctuate and bottom out, but there may be a small increase before the ETF is passed.
Trading straregy:

Target selection: Consider choosing a broad-cap index ETF or industry leading stocks.
Position: The initial position should be controlled at 30%-40% of the total funds to prevent risks brought by market fluctuations.
Direction: Mainly long.
Entry point: Gradually build positions at the lower edge of the range or key support level.
Stop loss: Set 3%-5% below the support level.
Take profit: After a small increase, set it at 5%-10% of the target yield.
2. September
After the implementation of the interest rate cut policy, the market may first experience a fake fall, a short-term decline, and then start a new large-scale market in October.
Trading straregy:

Target selection: Continue to hold large-cap index ETFs or industry leading stocks and observe whether there are new investment opportunities.
Position: If there is a short-term decline, you can consider increasing your position to 50%-60% of total funds.
Direction: Mainly long, and consider short-term hedging when there is a short-term decline.
Entry point: Add positions when an obvious rebound signal appears after a fake fall.
Stop loss: Adjust to 3%-5% below the new support level.
Take profit: Set at the target price where the market is expected to start in October.
Scenario 2: If the ETF is approved in July, August or September, and the interest rate is cut in November
1. July-September
The market may rise slightly before the ETF is passed, and there may be a brief correction after the passage.
Trading straregy:

Target selection: Large-cap index ETFs, industry leaders, or specific sectors that benefit from ETF fund inflows.
Position: Controlled within 30%-40% of total funds.
Direction: Long.
Entry point: Gradually build positions in the early stage of the rise, and cover positions during a brief correction.
Stop loss: Set 3%-5% below the support level.
Take profit: Gradually take profits from a small rise after a brief pullback.
2. September and October
The market may enter a period of volatility, but due to the expectations of interest rate cuts and ETF fund inflows, there may be a round of short-term increases.
Trading straregy:

Target selection: Hold large-cap index ETFs and industry leading stocks, and pay attention to sectors that benefit from interest rate cuts.
Position: Increase to 50%-60% of total funds.
Direction: Continue to go long.
Entry point: Open a position at the low point of the volatility period and during the pullback.
Stop loss: Adjust to 3%-5% below the new support level.
Take Profit: Set at the expected small upward target price.
3. November
After the implementation of the interest rate cut policy, the market may correct for 1 to 2 months, and then start a new round of big market in the first quarter of 2025.
Trading straregy:

Target selection: Large-cap index ETFs, industry leaders and sectors that may benefit from interest rate cuts.
Position: During a short-term correction, gradually increase the position to 70%-80% of total funds.
Direction: Go long and take advantage of the pullback opportunity to layout.
Entry point: Build positions gradually in batches during the pullback period.
Stop loss: Set 3%-5% below the new support level.
Take Profit: The initial target is set at the high point of the expected launch of the market in the first quarter of 2025.
Risk Management
Pay close attention to ETF approvals and central bank monetary policy trends: These factors are critical to market sentiment and investment decisions.
Allocate funds reasonably: Avoid full-position operations and maintain flexible fund management.
Reduce liquidity and trading volume risks: By choosing highly liquid targets and reasonable position management.
Macroeconomic conditions and policy changes: Need to follow market trends and adjust strategies in a timely manner.

Based on the different scenarios of market expectations for interest rate cuts in September and November, we developed flexible trading strategies and remained sensitive to market changes. Through reasonable risk management and capital allocation, we actively responded to market fluctuations and strived to achieve profits under different market trends.

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