To summarize
Beijing time on the 19th at 2:00 am, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, share three possible situations and a way to make money without losing. There are three general views on the decision to cut interest rates tonight.
The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 66%, which may rise sharply; the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 34%, the increase is limited, and there may be a wash; the probability of no rate cut is low, and if no rate cut is made, there may be a sharp drop.
Next, share a strategy that can make money without losing, which can be used in most important news in history.
Take the CPI data released at 8:30 pm on the 11th of this month as an example. As shown in the figure, after the data was released, the big cake suddenly rose and then suddenly fell. This is the so-called "Heaven and Earth Needle". In this case, we only do contrarian trading in the "second direction". In this example, the rise is the first direction and the fall is the second direction. Then, we go long immediately after the second direction appears.
Because after the two directions of the "Heaven and Earth Needle" come out, the price tends to return to the median between the high and the low. So, in this example, we go long after the second direction appears, and when the price moves toward the "median" at the low point, we successfully make a profit.
Pulled above 62,000, fell back, fell below the 60,000 first-line support, and closed negative: go short at the current price at 8 am, and see a 19-20 day line with two consecutive negatives.
4. Smashed to around 57,500, but V reversed and closed positive: go long at the current price at 8 am tomorrow, and take profit at 8 am the day after tomorrow and go short. See a 20-22 day line with three consecutive negatives.
If there is news at 2 o'clock
If you go down, you can go to the lower track of the two-hour line. The one-hour rebound is not good at present, so you can go to the lower track of the two-hour line. Tomorrow night is 59
But if you go down directly after 2 o'clock, it will be deeper, around 58, which is probably just the middle track of the daily line. At 58, I will double the leverage
Hold it tightly, and it will fall back to 54 at most
Once the news causes huge market fluctuations and the "Heaven and Earth Needle" appears, this will be a strategy with a winning rate of more than 90%. You can use it to make a profit instead of complaining that the dealer has started to harvest again. I still hope that before the important news tonight, more people can see it and provide effective help.
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