The benchmark rate will fall to about 2.75%, from about 5.25% currently.
This is equivalent to 10 rate cuts of 25 basis points each,
and the Fed would probably only take such a step in the event of a recession.
Although only a very small number of people on Wall Street think a recession is coming soon, it seems that most people in the market agree.
The risk of a recession is higher now than it was a few months ago.
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