Expectedly, positive news lands first negatively, a slight drop followed by a rebound? #美联储减息

Information Section:
1. The Trump family crypto project WLFI purchased $250,000 27228049061 four hours ago and exchanged 103 cbBTC for WBTC;
2. Yesterday, GBTC had a net outflow of $35.9 million, and ETHE had a net outflow of $49.2 million;
3. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points;
4. Powell: It is unlikely to raise interest rates next year, and it may take another year or two to reach the 2% inflation target;
5. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond reached its highest level since the end of May, rising by 11.3 basis points to 4.5%;
6. Federal Reserve spokesman: The Fed hints that the pace of rate cuts will slow down;
7. Median of the Fed's dot plot: a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by 2025;
8. Arkham announced the integration of Sui blockchain data;
9. OpenAI: ChatGPT has added features for making phone calls and sending text messages;
10. Osprey Funds launched the first publicly offered BNB fund in the U.S.;
11. Kelp DAO announced KERNEL token economics, with 20% of the total token supply allocated for airdrops;
12. The U.S. Supreme Court will discuss the TikTok ban again;
13. Deutsche Bank launched a Layer 2 network based on ZKsync technology;
14. The Trump family crypto project WLFI has reached a partnership with Ethena Labs;
15. BlackRock's MEAR fund completed its first blockchain municipal bond transaction;
16. pump.fun became the first Solana protocol to generate over $100 million in monthly revenue;
17. Paradigm and Coinbase co-founder Fred Ehrsam: want to focus on the DeSci sector but do not understand it;
18. MicroStrategy's financial operations brought shareholders a net gain of 116,940 BTC this quarter;
19. BlackRock: recommends using gold and Bitcoin as a supplement to bond investments;
20. Binance: has reserved 135 million tokens 92123283508 for compensation to address the issue of market value and FDV display data not being updated in time during the spot listing.

The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates early Thursday morning, let's see if the market will rise. These few days have just been small fluctuations.
#美联储减息

Fed dot plot: The Fed expects the federal funds rate to be 4.4% at the end of 2024
#美联储减息

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision has been announced, with a 25 basis point rate cut, in line with expectations

Powell will speak at 3:30, let's see what he will say

#美联储减息

On September 26, Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler issued a position statement today, saying that she "strongly supports" the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) strategy of lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, a move that demonstrates the high attention paid to labor market dynamics. Kugler emphasized: "Although the endogenous power of the job market has not weakened, the FOMC currently needs to balance macroeconomic policy goals to ensure that while curbing potential economic slowdowns and cost of living crises, inflation rates continue to return to policy target levels. I firmly support last week's interest rate adjustment decision (reduced by 50 basis points). If the inflation path converges steadily as I expect, I will tend to support further loose monetary policy. The latest consumer price index (PCE) data indicates a gradual easing of inflationary pressures, and the annual PCE growth rate in August is expected to fall back to 2.2%. She believes that in the current economic cycle, it is appropriate for the Fed to turn its attention to the health of the labor market. Although the market heat has cooled, "the resilience of the labor market still exists", and the current unemployment rate of 4.2% "is still at a low level compared to historical data." #美联储减息

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has increased to 50%
#美联储减息

Trump: The Fed's rate cut is due to political considerations
#特朗普立场
#美联储减息

Many people believe that the Fed's interest rate cut is a major positive, but this is not the case. Looking back at history, Bitcoin has experienced a large-scale decline after each interest rate cut. The reasons behind this are complex: on the one hand, interest rate cuts usually mean a poor economic outlook, causing market unrest, and investors may withdraw from high-risk assets. On the other hand, expectations of interest rate cuts are usually traded in advance, and the market will fall after the interest rate cut is implemented. #美联储减息 $BTC

#美联储减息

Let me give you a brief overview of what the Fed said last night.

Interest rate/monetary policy

1. The Fed maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50%

2. Powell said that a rate cut in September "may be under consideration" and the consensus of the committee is gradually approaching a rate cut, and the policy rate will be lowered as early as September;

3. If the economy remains stable, the interest rate will remain unchanged as needed;

4. A premature rate cut may reverse the improvement of inflation, and the Fed is gradually approaching the time to lower interest rates!

5. There is in-depth discussion about rate cuts, but a 50 basis point rate cut is not being considered now.

Goldman Sachs: Still expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week
#高盛 #美联储减息

There are still 24 days until the Fed's interest rate meeting. According to current data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 88.5%. There is a high probability that there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, which is good for the cryptocurrency circle. It is only a matter of time before Bitcoin breaks through 75,000 and sets a new record high.

#BTC☀ #美联储减息

#美联储减息 $BTC Why did the US stock market plummet and the currency market fluctuate after the interest rate cut? You can read the following internal sharing carefully.

"Is there a glimmer of hope for a Fed rate cut? Williams revealed: Not in July, but there may be a rate cut in the coming months!"

The Fed may be close to a rate cut, but not in July

The Fed's "third-in-command" and New York Fed President Williams recently hinted that if inflation continues to slow, the Fed may cut interest rates in the coming months, but explicitly ruled out a rate cut in July.

He pointed out that the inflation data in the past three months was positive and was approaching the Fed's 2% target, but more data was needed to confirm the trend.

Williams also observed that the U.S. labor market was gradually cooling, which left room for a rate cut in September, provided that the economy was stable and secure. Although most Fed officials, including Chairman Powell, were cautious about the timing of the rate cut and the market generally expected no action before September, the unexpected decline in inflation in June led the market to speculate that the July meeting might set a rate cut path.

Williams emphasized that the current policy is effective, but more positive data is needed to increase confidence in the continued decline in inflation.

The Fed has maintained high interest rates since last year, waiting for the inflation trend to become clear. Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase and Trump's candidate for Treasury Secretary, suggested that the Fed should be patient in adjusting interest rates and be alert to the risk of inflation rebound under global turmoil, such as increased government spending, global militarization trends, green economic investment boom and changes in trade patterns, which may bring new variables to inflation.

This statement further clarified the Fed's delicate attitude towards future monetary policy, that is, under the premise of ensuring that inflation is effectively controlled, it will carefully consider the timing of interest rate cuts to balance the two major goals of economic growth and price stability. #美联储货币纪要
#美联储何时降息？
#美联储降息周期
#美联储减息
#美联储利率决议即将公布 $BTC
$ETH
$BNB

#非农数据影响
Tonight's non-agricultural data is a big news. I will simply say that whether it is bullish or bearish, Bitcoin will still rise in the evening.

In the final analysis, it has little to do with non-agricultural data. It can be regarded as an estimate of the Fed's interest rate cut. #美联储减息

If the non-agricultural data is very bad, the market will worry whether the Fed will force a rate cut and no longer pursue 2% inflation. The hidden problem of a hard landing of the economy makes market investors pessimistic about the US economy. Since the last non-agricultural data, the US dollar index has been weakening, but it has not recovered since then. The market has not digested the negative data of the US dollar.

On the contrary, whether the negative non-agricultural data can boost the Fed's sentiment for rate cuts, Bitcoin will rise in the short term due to the interest rate cut of its direct rival, the US dollar. Therefore, I think this non-agricultural data, whether it is bearish or bullish, is likely to rise.

⏰⏰⏰
Important news⚠️

Time: August 1, 2024

The unified opinion of all Fed members will be conveyed by Powell to all people in the cryptocurrency circle at 2:30 pm on August 1.

This time node is the booster for breaking new highs.

#美联储货币纪要
#美联储何时降息？
#美联储降息周期
#美联储减息
#美联储利率决议即将公布

This week's two major events: Trump winning the U.S. presidency and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points, causing Bitcoin to surge to $76,900. After the positive news, the subsequent trend may face some correction, and $76,900 could become a critical "super peak," making it difficult to reach this level again for a long time.
The key going forward is: Are there still significant positive signals that can surpass "Trump's ascension" and "the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut"? If such positive signals cannot be found in perception, then there is a need to remain highly vigilant in the short term. For Bitcoin to break through further, especially to challenge $80,000, stronger news may be needed to support it.

Even if Trump supports cryptocurrency, it may not be possible to realize that until January of the year after he takes office, and during the smooth transition period under Biden's administration, the market may face a period of negative sentiment or wait-and-see. However, in the long term, Trump's rise will benefit the U.S. stock market to continue strengthening, and the cryptocurrency market may also benefit from this trend, with a positive outlook in the long run. #美联储减息

$BTC

🔥 The Fed's interest rate cut suspense has set off the market: the balance of interest rate cuts in November is slightly tilted, and a 75 basis point interest rate cut may be welcomed in December?

Fed interest rate cut expectations are divided: the suspense of interest rate cuts in November has escalated

The latest data from CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the market's expectations for the Fed's future monetary policy are subtly divided.

As of the November meeting, the market generally believes that the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut by 25 basis points is 50.1%, and the possibility of a large interest rate cut of 50 basis points is also close behind, reaching 49.9%, showing that the expectations of interest rate cuts are almost evenly divided.

Looking forward to December, expectations of interest rate cuts have further accumulated, with a cumulative probability of 50 basis points of interest rate cuts of 26%, while a more radical cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points is regarded as the most likely scenario, with a probability of 50%.

However, the possibility of a cumulative interest rate cut of 100 basis points cannot be ignored, reaching 24%.

This series of data reflects the market's complex expectations and high attention to the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve.

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