Crypto阿七

Every bear market sacrifices a few exchanges

Especially the new first-tier and second-tier exchanges...

Make fewer mistakes, and you can survive.

For us traders, it is the same...

In the cryptocurrency world, the key to stable profits lies in long-term holding of Bitcoin.

Market risks are high, and 95% of participants often become 'victims of harvesting'.

If you believe you have exceptional investment talent, you may try other cryptocurrencies with only 1% of your assets, but do not recklessly invest heavily, and be wary of becoming a victim of market speculation.

MEME development has lost its mystery, and has devolved into an efficiency game.

It began with traffic-driven exchanges, where DOGE and SHIB leveraged big influencers for trading and listing narratives;
Musk endowed it with 'symbolic' attributes, allowing everything to project the will of celebrities;
Before Trump issued his coin, political hotspots created a multi-faceted speculative closed loop, filled with mysterious intrigue.

However, after Trump issued his coin, the narrative became centralized, and the sense of mystery dissipated.

Now MEME competitions are about speed and scale, where image creation and distribution replace story building, and the blockchain has completely become a game focused on efficiency.

Recently, due to major shareholders selling off, the TRX price has significantly dropped, with 'whales' selling over 8.27 million coins in 24 hours causing extreme volatility.

However, the market's bullish sentiment remains unchanged, with 84% of holders choosing to wait while the TRON ecosystem trading remains active.

The mid-level at $0.2398 may become support, and a short-term rebound is expected.

The positioning of Meme coins on platforms such as Solana and Binance Smart Chain (BSC) is undergoing a transformation.

In the early days, driven by speculation and the expectation of getting rich quickly, coin prices often skyrocketed hundreds or thousands of times overnight; now, influenced by the interconnection of primary and secondary markets (such as Binance Alpha and other projects), their price growth cycles have significantly lengthened, and volatility has become more stable.

This means that investors need to abandon the old model of 'buying high and selling low' and adopt a more rational, long-term perspective on emerging Meme coins, adapting to the changes in investment logic brought about by industry iteration and upgrading.

Jensen Huang's visit to China stirs up technology, business, and the cryptocurrency circle. The purpose of his visit is to break through the U.S. restrictions on Chinese chips, alleviate the survival pressure on enterprises, and impact U.S. tariff policies.

This move may ease the tense technological relationship between China and the U.S., attract capital back to the cryptocurrency circle, promote technological cooperation, and stimulate cryptocurrency output, but the inherent risks of U.S.-China competition and the cryptocurrency circle still exist, leaving uncertainty for the future.

Solana has formed strong support at $120, demonstrating strong bullish momentum, with significant capital inflow confirming its network appeal.

$143 is a key resistance level, with indicators such as OBV and RSI suggesting potential for a breakout.

If a breakout is successful, $150-$160 will become the target; the $123 support level should be monitored.

The market is cautiously optimistic, and whether a breakout occurs will determine if it can initiate a new round of upward momentum.

What does the future hold for Ethereum? The current market generally believes that a lack of innovation will limit its development, and only breakthrough innovations can revive it. However, this requires the innovation to be unique, a paradigm-level achievement that is unique to Ethereum and led by its native developers, rather than drawing on other public chains. Given such a challenging goal, should investors choose to patiently wait or exit early?

The altcoin XRP, related to Ripple, is currently experiencing its strongest period.

Since November 2024, its exchange rate against Ethereum has skyrocketed, reaching 160% by 2025, and the upward trend continues.

In March of this year, the XRP/ETH trading pair rose about 20%, followed by another 14% increase in April, significantly changing investors' perception of XRP and solidifying its position relative to Ethereum.

Previously, from November 2023 to May 2024, XRP against Ethereum had been on a continuous decline, with a notable drop of 20.4% in February 2024.

Now, with positive developments in the legal case between Ripple and the SEC, as well as speculation about the approval of an XRP spot ETF, investor confidence has been restored, and the prospects for XRP are receiving considerable attention.

The Bitcoin ETF market shows diverse capital inflow patterns.

BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw inflows of 30.58 million USD, while Fidelity's FBTC ETF experienced outflows of 113.8 million USD, contrary to the overall trend.

Currently, the net assets of Bitcoin ETFs reach 93.65 billion USD, accounting for 5.60% of Bitcoin's market value.

Previously, the market experienced fluctuations, first with a net inflow of 76.4 million USD, followed by a net outflow of 169.87 million USD.

Grayscale's GBTC ETF remained flat in inflow, with a decrease in shares; the NYSE's BTC fund experienced inflows; while ARK Invest's ARKB fund recorded net outflows.

As of April 16, the total market capitalization of ETFs was 1.83 billion USD, with an average daily trading volume of 1.19 million shares. This data can help provide insights into the direction of the cryptocurrency investment market.

Powell's speech releases important signals, especially regarding cryptocurrency regulation. Powell's remarks tonight can be broken down into two parts: Macro part (my understanding):
"The issue with U.S. debt does exist, but we can still bear it; employment and economic data are performing well, so there is no need to cut interest rates at this time."
Crypto part: "Cryptocurrency assets are becoming increasingly mainstream, stablecoins need a legal framework, and banks will have more lenient regulations regarding cryptocurrency."
In translation: We can't stop cryptocurrency; we are starting to consider how to incorporate it into the regulatory system and it won't be a blanket liquidation.

In a bear market cycle, even valuable coins struggle against the trend.

Even high-quality coins often drop 80%-90%, while those of lesser quality are more easily forgotten by the market and fall into complete silence.

Practice shows that blindly holding on (the so-called 'diamond hands') is not the best strategy.

Therefore, apart from Bitcoin (BTC), we cannot stick to a fixed long-term mindset, but should flexibly adapt to changes in the industry.

I adjust my strategy to use short-term operations, withdrawing the principal once profits double, and then using the principal to explore other potential coins.

Trading cryptocurrencies requires continuous learning and constant optimization of strategies.

To trade and avoid losses or liquidation, there is one discipline to strictly adhere to: do not short in an uptrend and do not go long in a downtrend; if you want to profit, do the opposite, that is, seek the direction of least resistance, which is also Livermore's viewpoint.

Key questions arise:
1. How to accurately define an uptrend and a downtrend? (The definition of trends must be clear)
2. How to determine what level of trend is currently in place? (Quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, etc.)
3. What are the trends in larger or smaller levels? (Follow the trend of the larger level, reference the smaller level)
4. How to determine the level of the main battlefield for trading based on personal characteristics?
5. How to judge when a trend at this level ends and a new trend begins? (There should be clear level turning signals)
6. When to decisively enter a trade? (Must have sufficient technical characteristics, such as wave structure, candlestick combinations, probability statistics)
7. What techniques are there during the position-holding process? (Are there reference patterns to enhance confidence?)
8. How to take profits? (Have reversal signals appeared at the same level? Has passive defense been triggered? Has the target been achieved?)

With these analytical skills, the trading system begins to take shape. However, the difficulty lies in the huge gap between cognition and execution. People often fall into greed, anger, ignorance, slowness, and doubt, the root of which lies in cognitive bias, not truly mastering knowledge, making it difficult to implement, and insufficient mental training. However, if one stubbornly adheres to the wrong path, the outcome often ends in liquidation and total loss.

“The trend is your friend” is an abstract expression of the deep dynamics of the market.

A trend is not merely a simple description of price direction; it is a comprehensive reflection of market narratives, psychological states, and capital flows. It possesses fractal characteristics, exhibiting similar yet not entirely identical structures across different time scales.

An upward trend on a daily chart may contain multiple pullbacks on an hourly chart, while a trend on a weekly chart may encompass several reversals on a daily chart.

Understanding the lifecycle of a trend is also crucial—it is born (formed), grows (accelerates), matures (slows down), ages (oscillates), and finally dies (reverses).

Different stages require different trading strategies; befriending a newly born trend is a completely different experience than befriending a trend that is struggling to survive.

On a deeper level, trends reflect the flow of power and capital in the market.

To understand trends is to understand where capital flows from and to, which market participants are gaining greater influence, and which are losing control.

True trend followers are not merely followers of technical indicators; they are keen interpreters of market narratives, careful observers of capital flows, and patient witnesses of market cycles.

Talk about my views on recent trends.

So far, the conditions for a market reversal have not yet been met, and everyone should not be in a hurry, but rather patiently wait.

Do not let your mindset be swayed by prices; just because Bitcoin's price has risen by ten thousand points from a starting point of 70,000, do not feel that you have missed a good opportunity; if it later breaks 80,000, do not secretly rejoice that you didn't rashly buy at the bottom, as this mindset is not advisable.

After all, many events currently remain unresolved. The tariff issue is certainly crucial, but for U.S. stocks and risk assets, the biggest concern is still the reduction in U.S. spending.

Once the U.S. cuts spending, economic growth will inevitably slow down, and job opportunities will also decrease.

Therefore, when looking at this trend, and even the entire market situation this year, we need to keep a long-term perspective and be broader in our outlook; we cannot make hasty decisions based on just a little information.

In the short term, it is recommended that everyone take profits when they can. Until the U.S. clearly indicates a rate cut or the policy has not yet shifted, do not be too optimistic; a bull market will not arrive instantly.

We must wait for market liquidity to be recovered before a bull market is likely to come.

When to sell Bitcoin does not have a standard answer, as it varies from person to person.

The key is to clarify what your purpose for investing in Bitcoin is.

If you just want to make a few thousand to improve your life, you can sell once you reach that goal; if it's to buy a nice car or house, you can sell when the price is right; if you need money urgently, you can sell at any time.

If you only want to make some money, you should choose to sell once your goal is achieved.

Some people treat Bitcoin as savings, investing spare money without urgency, so they don't care about the price and just keep holding.

Others expect Bitcoin to become a mainstream currency in the future, so they wait patiently.

The Bitcoin market is extremely free, with no constraints, allowing investors to enter and exit freely.

As the amount of held funds increases, people often find it difficult to control their emotions of gain and loss.

So, don't get tangled up about when to sell Bitcoin.

When you feel you have achieved your goal, you can go ahead and sell.

There is no unified answer for the best selling time for Bitcoin; it depends on individual planning and needs.

If it's to improve living conditions, one can take profits when targets are met; if looking to purchase large assets, sell when the price is right; if urgent funds are needed, sell at any time. Some investors aim solely for profit and exit when target prices are reached.

Others treat Bitcoin as a long-term savings, investing spare money and holding it for the long term; some see its potential to become a mainstream currency in the future and are willing to wait patiently. Bitcoin trading is free without mandatory constraints, but as the size of the holding increases, investors can easily become anxious about gains and losses.

In summary, having clear investment goals means that achieving those goals is the appropriate point to sell.

4.16 Wednesday Midday Analysis

The large pancake rose from around 8.31 to 8.39, and the previously arranged short positions have been taken profit.

Currently oscillating around 835, the overall trend today is downward, fluctuating within the mid-range area, and a consolidation or short-term pullback may occur soon.

However, the pullback momentum is insufficient, still under downward pressure, and we need to closely monitor the trend and respond flexibly.

From a technical perspective, the current state is mainly characterized by consolidation and oscillation. The MACD and KDJ indicators show that short selling strength is weakening, with signs of a rebound, but the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains bearish.

Key attention should be paid to whether the MACD can strengthen and whether key support and resistance levels will break. If the price can stabilize at 830, a small long position can be tried.

In summary, based on technical analysis and fundamentals, it is recommended to focus on high short positions, continuing the morning strategy.

A rebound to the 850 - 842 range can be shorted, targeting 830 - 820; if a rebound occurs near 1640 - 1610, it should also be shorted, with a target of 1550 - 1520.

The security and transparency of digital assets are attracting attention from various industries around the world.

With the continuous advancement of blockchain technology, more and more enterprises are beginning to explore the potential of decentralized finance.

This trend marks a transformation of the financial ecosystem, driving broader participation and innovation.