Awesome

Is it a trap to lure in buyers or sellers? Will there really be a surge after the Christmas crisis?

1. News Overview

1. Market News

From the data, it can be seen that long-term holders of Bitcoin are gradually increasing, and there is a significant contrast in production and purchasing volume. Weekly production is around 800, while purchasing volume has reached at least 10,000, indicating that long-term holders in the market are generally optimistic about future trends.

2. Interest Rate Cuts
The market pricing suggests that there will essentially be no interest rate cut in January, so there will be no impact from news from December 23 until January 6. However, the US stock market will close early at 2 AM on Tuesday, take a day off on Wednesday, and resume trading on Thursday. Particularly, there is a possibility of a decline in US stocks tonight, continuing into Tuesday night.

3. Situation During Christmas
During Christmas: The US stock market, Hong Kong stock market, and European stock markets will mostly be closed, starting from Tuesday and lasting until Friday. Trading volume during this period will be very weak, and there may also be a significant market correction, so it is important to manage positions carefully. Surviving through the Christmas period #比特币市场波动观察 #PCE通胀降温 $SOL $XRP

BlockBeats News, December 23, CryptoQuant CEO released data stating, 'The total Bitcoin holdings of ETFs, governments, and MicroStrategy now account for 31% of known Bitcoin holdings.' #圣诞行情分析 $SOL $XRP

Is Christmas coming?

1. News

1. Institutional situation
Institutions have been continuously selling since Friday, April last week, causing the market to fall sharply after the interest rate cut decision at 3 a.m. on Thursday, and then began to rebound and consolidate at the bottom in the past two days. Judging from the situation of institutional shipments, the market has experienced a three-month rise and was defeated by two days of decline. The market is bearish. Institutional and retail investors in the market may not be optimistic about the future trend. The price may consolidate repeatedly at the current position, or go down again.

2. Market news
From the market news, there are still many buying orders to protect the price of the 3000 position of the aunt and the price of the 90000 position of the big cake. Therefore, the 3000 position of the aunt is a very critical position in the near future, and the 9w position of the big cake is also a very critical position.

3. Market sentiment

In terms of market sentiment, the bullish sentiment is still relatively strong, but the number of bears continues to increase. The price may be repeatedly pulled up and down in the recent trend, and the trend may be more bearish. #比特币战略储备 #市场调整後的机会？ $SOL $ETH

The Korean stock market plummeted. Will the cryptocurrency market be affected?

1. News

1. Korean stock market

After a week of civil unrest, South Korea opened again and fell sharply. Then the president was restricted from leaving the country. Then the domestic affairs and the market may fall further. There will be more bottom-fishing and so on. The further decline of the market will be confirmed and stabilized.

2. Main force situation

From the perspective of the main force situation: the decline in the early market shipment volume is close to 800 million US dollars. With the shipment of the main force, the market price is also continuing to fall. At present, there is no large capital situation of the main force entering the market. The main force shipment is still continuing, which may continue to affect the US stock market in the late trading. The market will change after the market.

3. Long-term holders
From the data: from November 9 to December 9, long-term holders (more than 3 months) shipped 877,000 coins, the listed company WeCare bought 190,000 coins, institutions bought nearly 90,000 coins, and the remaining 70% were taken by retail investors. From the market sales volume and selling orders, the short-term top of the market may have appeared. #内容挖矿 #Meme齐涨 $BNB $SOL $XRP

Expectations for interest rate cuts continue to rise, is the market pullback a deep squat or a trap?

1. News

1. Institutional Situation

From the recent holdings of institutions: the holding volume of Bitcoin has increased threefold compared to last week, with a significant rise in holding volume. Ethereum also saw a continuous increase in holding volume over the past two weeks, surpassing that of Bitcoin, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among institutions. The market may continue to rise, with upward pressure at the 105,000 position; if this is broken, we will look at the 110,000 to 150,000 range.

2. Interest Rate Cut Situation

From the market's perspective on interest rate cuts: following recent small non-farm data and large non-farm data, the probability of an interest rate cut has continued to rise from 65% to now 86%. The market remains optimistic about a possible interest rate cut in December; however, this Wednesday there is a CPI data release that may be the last obstacle to an interest rate cut. Once this is released, there will be no further obstacles to rate cuts. An interest rate cut is expected at 3 a.m. on December 19.

3. Market Situation

Market Situation: As we mentioned in the public chain sector, there are signs of a rebound in the NFT sector over the past couple of days. If you missed the opportunity in the public chain sector, you may consider looking into some tokens related to the NFT sector recently.

The big cake has dropped thousands in a day, corpses everywhere and cries of despair, how are you doing, old friends? #BTC新高10W #DOGE狂潮 #Layer1公链普涨 $BNB $SOL

Now arbitrage can double your profits in a year, it's a sure win, the bulls are too scary.

Consolidation at high level, paralysis and decline, is the market going to change?

1. News

1. Data in the first week of December

Wednesday: Small non-farm ADP data

Thursday: Unemployment benefit data (Powell's speech at 2:30 am)

Friday: Large non-farm data

From the overall data market forecast, the data released in December is a strong bullish data for the recovery of the US economy, especially the labor market, but combined with the situation of the US Spring Festival, this data has a lot of water, but the water will end in January next month. The probability of interest rate cuts in December may decrease, and the probability of no interest rate cuts may continue to increase.

2. Market situation

1. South Korea's proposal to levy tax on cryptocurrency transactions has been extended for two years (20-22%, plus local taxes)

2. There are two exchanges that may have problems recently, one is the Japanese exchange that was stolen in May this year, and the other is the exchange that was stolen in November.

3. Teena, the token release.

3. Market sentiment
The market sentiment trend is similar to the situation around January 10, 2021. The market's bullish sentiment is very high, but beware of the main force's shock shipment at a high level. #币安BNSOL质押PYTH #比特币打破感恩节魔咒 $SOL $BNB $ETH

Will the upcoming launch of Ethereum pledge trigger a market rally again?

1. News

1. Institutional situation

From the situation and trend of institutional data, there is a certain risk aversion in the market. There may be some obstacles for the market price to continue to rise. Then the process of price rise may still require BlackRock's funds to pull up the market, but there is no sign of large institutions continuing to hold positions in the past two days. The market may experience a consolidation trend in the next two days. Then when large institutions re-enter the market, the market will have a new rise.

2. Interest rate cut situation
After the PCE data last night, the probability of interest rate cuts increased, and the probability of no interest rate cuts decreased. This is a bullish signal to the market. The final interest rate cut or whether to cut interest rates still depends on a large non-agricultural data next Friday to set the tone.

3. Market situation

The market has recently received good news from Auntie: in the case of pledged ETFs, from the market's perspective, the market rose last night under the stimulation of this positive. But it may be necessary to wait until Trump takes office and replaces the existing SEC before it is possible to continue the upward trend. #COS.Smart Strategy Library🥇🥇#GMT投票燃烧计划 $SOL $ETH

The price of Bitcoin has been sideways for 4 days. The horn of decline has been blown. Is Bitcoin going to reach 90,000?

1. News

1. Institutional situation

Compared with the data of the first two weeks of the institutions: we found that the first net inflow continued to increase, BlackRock's purchasing power weakened, and other institutions had risk aversion shipments. From the overall data, the market is waiting for the tone of interest rate cuts in December. Institutions have risk aversion. This week is the last week of November. The market has a relatively low surge and plunge. There is a high probability that it will be mostly consolidated at a high level. So our operation idea this week is to fight high and low. The high altitude is in the 99,000-10w area, and the low long is concentrated in the 95,000-97,000 area.

2. Market sentiment

After the big cake has been sideways at a high level for 4 days, the market's enthusiastic bullish sentiment has cooled down, and then slowly tends to be rational. Then everyone is more likely to take profits from the chips in their hands, or make a profit, or wait for a bigger correction before adding positions, not mindlessly adding positions, indicating that the market may cool down, and the correction may begin to change.

3. Market December interest rate cut and 10w situation

The market's expectation for the big cake to reach 100,000 at the end of November is lowered, and the probability of a rate cut in December is also decreasing. The market trend has recently begun to gradually move sideways, bringing a market sentiment that the entire market may fall or pull back.
#NOT市场动态 #ETH市场新动向 $BNB $ETH

Bitcoin has reached the 98,000 position, when will we see 100,000 above?

1. News

1. Institutional Data
From the perspective of institutions, this round of market rally has rapidly risen and is approaching the 100,000 threshold closely associated with MicroStrategy. The continuous price increase is likely to trigger imitation by other listed companies, making it more probable for the market to continue rising. BlackRock's recent buying and selling situation is significantly influenced by purchases from MicroStrategy.

2. Market Sentiment
From the recent market sentiment, it’s all about mindless buying every day, making profits. The most troubled are the three major exchanges, which are losing every day. However, the current market situation is beyond their control, so once the market starts to decline, it will definitely plunge, and the exchanges will certainly try to recover the losses.

3. Liquidation Intensity
From the market perspective, when breaking above 100,000 compared to breaking below 97,000, the strength of the bears above is greater. However, in terms of market participation and funding, bulls still hold a stronger position.

4. The True Strategy behind Bitcoin's Rise

The bullish strategy will continue, and prices will keep rising. Thus, the overall market's bullish sentiment will also persist, but the capital needed for this rise is enormous, requiring more listed companies to participate. Now, it has become a capital game where we retail investors have little influence.
#比特币突破10万？ $SOL $XRP $BNB

Is a bullish market brought about by a variety of blooms, or is it a standout?

1. News

1. Institutional Data

From the perspective of institutional data: the market saw a net inflow of around 100 billion in the 10 days from November 11 to November 21. The price rose from 80,000 to around 98,000 now, and the market's share of large coins increased from 53% to around 63%. The small coins in this market have basically been bloodsucked and halved. Based on this situation, the market institutions may continue to hold their positions, and it could continue to rise, with only 2,000 dollars away from the 100,000 mark.

2. Unemployment Claims

The previous value was 21.7, the forecast value is 22. If the actual published value is higher than 22 or 21.7, it will be a bearish signal. If the published value is lower than 22 or 21.7, it will be a bullish signal. Bullish signals are for U.S. stocks and the dollar index, while bearish signals pertain to the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

3. Market News

The probability of a rate cut in December is around 53%, while the probability of no cut is around 46%. We need to wait for the entire non-farm payroll report in December before considering the bullish or bearish situation for December. #Crypto🚀🚀 #币安矿池FB联合挖矿 $SOL $BNB

The wealth of the world is coming, can we grasp it?

1. News

1. Institutional data

From the perspective of total volume, the market's holdings have been net inflows every day from Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, but the inflow volume continues to weaken. Second, from the perspective of BlackRock's holdings in the big structure, the holdings have been decreasing recently, especially after the CPI data came out on Wednesday night, the market's holdings fell sharply.
From the overall data of institutions: the market may appear in the recent rise, the rise is slow, and even the recent top situation, do not go long near the 90,000 position, you can go short.

2. Market situation
Small coins, especially small coins in the meme sector, have been pulling up very hard recently, but the market's big cakes and concubines have not had a particularly big rise. At this time, once there is a slight disturbance in the market, the small coins in the market will start to fall, and after the fall, the big cakes will pull up again, which is what we call the end of the market rise, or the opportunity of stagflation.

3. Unemployment benefit data

If the actual value is higher than the expected value, it proves that the unemployment rate in the market has increased, which is bearish in the short term, and the US stock market may crash tonight. If the actual value is lower than the expected value, it proves that the unemployment rate in the market has decreased, which is bullish in the short term, and the US stock market may continue to pull up tonight. #牛回速归，晒晒你的持仓？ #新币挖矿 $DOGE $SOL

Institutions don't want money for Bitcoin, is the daily high for Bitcoin 100,000?

1. News

1. Three Arrows Capital

They hold Sol and AIT's prices at 156 and 2465 respectively. During the past two days of Bitcoin and AIT rising, they sold half of their funds. Many large holders on the chain have once again re-entered Bitcoin and AIT, but the prices have not risen quickly recently, which suggests that we may be witnessing a false illusion of prosperity created by the market makers.

2. Sun's AIT

Sun holds about 1.2 billion US dollars worth of AIT, with an average price around 3100. Recently, he made a profit and transferred about 60 million US dollars to his exchange Huobi, with the highest floating loss exceeding 200 million US dollars. Now he has a profit of over 60 million, so for large holders with a lower cost than Sun, the profits are even more objective.

3. From the data perspective

Institutional large holders always give us a sense that large purchases will continue to drive price increases, but in reality, the price hasn't risen in the past two days, and instead, it has fallen today. So where is the money going? #内容挖矿 #你问我答 $DOGE $SOL

How do we define a slow bull or a fast bull?

1. From the market perspective

1. The current market liquidity: Approximately around 1 million, with institutions taking about 450,000, leaving only about 500,000 in the market. (The institutions that bought in have basically rarely sold out.)

2. The current situation of retail investors in the market: The total amount held by retail investors in the market is about 8 million big coins, with the most concentrated holdings located around the price of 20,000 during this bull market. There are continuous actions from retail investors to enter the market, which may weaken the liquidity of the big coins, but the total amount of capital will continue to increase.

3. Replacing the current SEC with a more lenient crypto chairperson, which will bring more opportunities for this new currency to go on ETF, will indirectly increase the entire market's capital, and it will be a continuous increase.

4. Many new retail investors are continuously entering the market, but the market price is not rising dramatically, indicating that the market is still in the mid-to-late phase of the bull market and has not yet entered a frenzied bull market stage.

5. A proper trend after Trump takes office is what we call the real explosion of the bull market cycle beginning, during which the market may see a rise of around 10,000 points.

2. From the data perspective

1. Looking at institutional data: The market maker has shifted from exchanges to institutions, especially top institutions led by BlackRock, which do not need to depress prices to continuously pump the market; they can consistently lift the market as long as they are willing.

2. From the perspective of long-term holders of big coins in the entire market: 80-90% of big coins are held by long-term holders. About 18% of the total big coins are in the United States, indicating that institutions and holders there can control the trend of the entire big coin.

Trump wins, beware of traps to lure more investors, how will the market decide on the night of rate cuts?

1. News

1. Institutional changes
From a historical perspective, the market has been pulling up for three consecutive days after Trump's victory and the market's expectation of rate cuts. However, our big money sponsor BlackRock has started to sell stocks in the past two days, and it has been selling stocks for two consecutive days, which means that the market may experience a round of correction. Don't chase more stocks at high levels

2. Time of rate hike decision
Starting at 3 a.m. on November 8, focus on Powell's speech, and explain the overall situation of market economic expectations at the end of the year and next year, and the expectation of rate cuts. Focus here

3. Market reaction
A 25 basis point rate cut is basically confirmed. The probability of a rate cut in December is reduced and there may be no rate cut. The frequency of rate cuts next year may start from March, and the number of rate cuts may be rate cut-pause-rate cut, and the interest rate will eventually be maintained at around 3%. #CHZ翻倍潜力 $BNB #币安BNSOL超级质押

2. Market analysis

1. Big cake operation suggestion: 2896 short

2. Auntie operation suggestion: 76800 short

Trump won, where will the market have the next chance?

1. What we think

1. Fundamentals

1. Good news: From the K-line trend of the big cake, the market has broken the historical high, and the support below has stabilized. The news of Trump's victory, the bullish stimulus, and the superposition of positive factors have basically determined the bull market trend, but the market has not yet fully exploded.

2. Bad news: From the two-day market pull from November 5 to November 6, the market big cake broke through the 75,000 position, so the announcement of Trump's victory is the result of the exhaustion of positive factors.

3. Bad news: After Trump takes office, he will weaken the interest rate cut in December, or suspend the interest rate cut.
2. Coins with potential to rise
1. ETH
The first one: re-staking has not passed (SEC)
After passing, the market will definitely have a big rise
The second one: political factors (Trump and the emperor have a good relationship)
Beneficial factors
2. Sol
The first one: the functions on the basic chain are the same as the aunt, the fees are lower than the aunt, the number of active people on the chain exceeds the aunt, the transaction volume of cex on the chain ranks first, and the meme sector is mainly exploded on the sol chain.
The second one: Capital Jewish Capital
The third one: ETF (submitted)
Summary: From November to early December, our operation ideas must be low-multiple positions, and we will find positions to do low-multiples when the callback is made, rather than chasing longs. Remember not to chase longs. If you are trapped in a short position, you must find time to untie it. #内容挖矿 #美国大选后涨或跌？ $BNB $SOL

The US election has concluded, Trump wins, the big pie skyrockets by 10%, an 80,000 big pie is about to appear, the subsequent market trend, everyone can publicly discuss

【Six states in the US have completed presidential election voting】Jin Ten Data, November 6, report: As of November 5, 7 PM Eastern Time, the voting stations in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia have closed. At 7:30 PM Eastern Time, the voting stations in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia will close. #11月市场预测 #CKBUSDT #内容挖矿 $SOL $BTC

Election Trading Day, Market Volatility Has Become Normal

1. News

1. Election Day Timing
Trump: 219
Currently, based on market votes, Harris has a higher probability of winning than Trump. If Trump wins, we will definitely be bullish in the short term. If the results on election day show Trump winning and there are signs of market decline, then everyone can buy the dip, but we should not chase the highs. However, after Trump wins, some policy factors announced during the selection might lead to an early stop of interest rate cuts by December at the earliest. In the long term, the market's US stock performance may continue to decline. We will be bullish before the end of the year, but there might be adjustments at the beginning of next year, and the rise will be delayed until mid-April to start, extending the bull market.
Harris: 226
Harris winning in Pennsylvania, the state with the most swing votes, increases the probability of a Democratic victory. If Harris wins, the market is likely to rise, and we can short the highs. If it declines, we cannot buy the dip; in the short term, Harris's victory is bearish, but in the long term, it is bullish and will not impact interest rate cuts, rather it will promote the continuation of rate cuts. However, the bull market in the cryptocurrency space will continue, as regardless of which president takes office, they will support our circle, just with varying degrees of intensity.

2. November 5 Election
On election day, it is recommended: Try to stay out of position after 9:30 PM for short trades, and continue holding long positions with leverage; it is best to operate 1-2 hours after the election.
3. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

November 8

Market predictions indicate a high probability of interest rate cuts in November, with a forecast of 25 basis points, which is a positive factor.
2. Market Analysis

1. Bitcoin Trading Suggestion: Buy low around 68000

2. Ethereum Trading Suggestion: Buy low around 2400 #11月市场预测 $SOL #你问我答 #BNB季度销毁 $BNB $WIF