Election Trading Day, Market Volatility Has Become Normal

1. News

1. Election Day Timing

Trump: 219

Currently, based on market votes, Harris has a higher probability of winning than Trump. If Trump wins, we will definitely be bullish in the short term. If the results on election day show Trump winning and there are signs of market decline, then everyone can buy the dip, but we should not chase the highs. However, after Trump wins, some policy factors announced during the selection might lead to an early stop of interest rate cuts by December at the earliest. In the long term, the market's US stock performance may continue to decline. We will be bullish before the end of the year, but there might be adjustments at the beginning of next year, and the rise will be delayed until mid-April to start, extending the bull market.

Harris: 226

Harris winning in Pennsylvania, the state with the most swing votes, increases the probability of a Democratic victory. If Harris wins, the market is likely to rise, and we can short the highs. If it declines, we cannot buy the dip; in the short term, Harris's victory is bearish, but in the long term, it is bullish and will not impact interest rate cuts, rather it will promote the continuation of rate cuts. However, the bull market in the cryptocurrency space will continue, as regardless of which president takes office, they will support our circle, just with varying degrees of intensity.

2. November 5 Election

On election day, it is recommended: Try to stay out of position after 9:30 PM for short trades, and continue holding long positions with leverage; it is best to operate 1-2 hours after the election.

3. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

November 8

Market predictions indicate a high probability of interest rate cuts in November, with a forecast of 25 basis points, which is a positive factor.

2. Market Analysis

1. Bitcoin Trading Suggestion: Buy low around 68000

2. Ethereum Trading Suggestion: Buy low around 2400 #11月市场预测 $SOL #你问我答 #BNB季度销毁 $BNB $WIF