Generally, targets after October 2023 are not selected. The trend of speculating on new rather than old is also going to be reversed. Although there are locked-in positions for old targets, and although it is difficult to return to the high point of the last bull market, due to the deep decline and full wash-out in the bear market, most of the chips have returned to the hands of the dealers, and it is relatively easy to pull the market, and the selling pressure is also small. As for new coins, due to this round of bull market, if it is called a bull market, most of the coins issued from October 2023 were financed at the end of the bull market at the end of 2021, and investment institutions entered the market at a high level. In 2022, traditional VCs such as Sequoia Capital also came to disrupt the situation, causing one or two projects to be seriously overvalued, so these coins can be said to be congenitally disabled and bubble-obese. We can specifically find through the data that the coins after October 2023 have generally plummeted. The coins issued in 2022, 2021, and 2020 have generally risen in the past year. Especially for the coins issued in 2022, they are fully washed, and there is no locked-in market. They dare to issue coins in a bear market, which means that the project team wants to do real things. On the contrary, those who issue coins in the early and middle of the bull market have a bit of speculative mentality. Therefore, in the short term, the coins issued after October 2023 generally need to be fully washed by the market. Regardless of whether they have value or not, as long as there is no water release, they will not be bought for the time being. In other words, we must at least let the coins be fully washed for 9 months. Of course, time is dynamic. As time goes by, October 2023 will gradually be postponed to the coins before December, and the interest rate cut will shorten the washing cycle to a certain extent, which may become 8 months or 7 months. At the same time, we must be careful not to cut the boat to seek the sword. Before, cutting the boat to seek the sword was to speculate on new and not old, but now we must not cut the boat to seek the sword to speculate on old and not new. Because there is also such a situation, that is, the recent plunge has accelerated the washing of many new coins. For example, the recent ULTI, from the high point, plummeted 62% in just 18 days. Has it been washed in place? We have no way of knowing, but the violent rebound in the past two days is worth noting.     

Others such as Manta plummeted 51% from its high point

XAI plummeted 54.58%    

Strk plummeted 76%

At the same time, earlier currencies such as UNI fell 28.8%    

Ron fell 36%
And arb and op, which belong to the second layer with strk and manta, fell 41% and 36.4% respectively, "the situation is much better."

So is it that the old coins have been washed more fully, so the decline is limited and more resistant to decline, or the new coins have been washed in place at one time?

2. Abandon hoarding coins in the short term (except for Ethereum), and speculate on the bands, with a cycle of about 3 months. Speculating on coins is not as good as hoarding coins. This is the iron rule of the last bull market. Frequent changes of positions, wanting to eat all the bands, but not eating anything, changing too much, buying the market, and forgetting the price at the start after too long, making the investment path very chaotic. In this bull market, continuing to hoard coins and building a bottom position has become the experience of many "smart" leeks. As a result, it has been seen that it has risen and collapsed. Hoarding Alex, rising 7 times and falling 87%, it can be said that it will go back to where it came from.
Picture
I won't give many examples of other coins.
We just need to know that in the currency circle without a water release environment, the increase is not sustainable. Once the technical side starts to pull back, it is not a reasonable retracement, but a bear market.
I am afraid that the copycat coins will continue to rise for 3 months and fall for 3 months in the future, even as strong as SOL.
Picture

1. Abandon studying fundamentals in the short term and only look at the supply and demand relationship of tokens

The lesson we learned from the last round of bull market is to constantly learn new tracks and new technologies, understand technologies, and identify the meaning and value behind them.

The lessons of the last round have become negative lessons. After all, the currency circle is still essentially a casino. Without real long-term customers, it is difficult to rely on performance to support the currency price, so there is no fundamentals, especially when the whole market lacks new gamblers, it is even more lacking in water, and there is even less fundamentals. If there are fundamentals, it is probably the expectation of the future.

You expect the modular blockchain to explode, just like believing that the human brain will have an interface in the future;

Expecting the second-layer expansion and Ethereum sharding to bring a massive ecosystem is just like believing that people will build a base on the moon in the future to bring a new prosperous business;

Expecting smart contracts on Bit is like expecting people to master controlled nuclear fusion.

These are inevitable sooner or later and will come, but the future has not come. The expectations have been priced in the high valuations of companies such as Sequoia, so speculation on new things instead of old ones has become a wrong lesson.

Since fundamentals cannot play a role in the casino in the short term, the only thing that can play a role is the capital side that will not deceive people.

Full release, full exchange of chips, dispersed holdings, and no major selling pressure are the life and death books that determine the rise and fall of the currency in the near future.

Liquidity exhaustion is the key to the recent plunge.
The main reason for the recent plunge is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased.
Everyone has come to their senses. The so-called bull market from last year to March this year was a fake bull market, or a Bitcoin independent bull market.
A large amount of funds and new investors have been blocked in ETFs instead of entering exchanges and the currency circle.
The total amount of altcoins is shrinking, and in the first half of the year, there were 624 new coins with a circulation market value of more than 20 million US dollars.
If interest rates are not cut, altcoins will definitely not be much better, because in 2024, there will be a certain amount of new coins (according to 20 million US dollars). It is estimated that there will be about 800 new coins. If interest rates are cut, altcoins may not be much better. It depends on whether you choose the right one.
The liquidity of altcoins is exhausted, and there is actually a little doubt about the big cake.
In the past 10 days, we have found that ETFs have been net outflows.
Is this the reason for the decline of Bitcoin? Or is it because the decline of Bitcoin has led to the departure of ETF funds?
It is difficult to say that there is a direct cause and effect between the two, but there is a root cause that is easily overlooked and cannot be underestimated, which is the reason why ETFs have risen in the past six months. Data shows that this is because 30% of the funds are not held for a long time by institutions or large investors to earn cyclical profits, but for stable arbitrage in the medium and short term.

I recently talked to a few VC friends. Most of them made money because they knew some inside information about ETFs. However, the first-tier altcoins that they relied on for survival generally lost money. They suggested that new coins that have raised funds since the second half of 2021 should not be touched now, as the premium is sky-high. But in another six months, after a thorough cleanup, it is uncertain. Hold on to the big pie in the short term. VCs say they have been cut, of course they have to cut the secondary market. Brothers, I have found the source of the huge losses for you.

After reviewing the altcoins, if the following characteristics are found, they are very dangerous altcoins:
1. The financing time is between the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022;
2. Invested by large institutions, especially those with A16Z hashkey;
3. TGE is less than 15%;
4. The release mechanism is to release every month after the launch, and the release ratio is higher than 0.2%;
5. The market value of the online market exceeds 1 billion US dollars.

https://x.com/i/status/1804360581560094772

Some people say: May is poor, June is desperate, and July is a turnaround.
The altcoins are about to rebound.
Hold on.
I think we should hold on, but we have to endure for at least two months.

First, on June 8, the closing date, the 30% purchasing power of the Bitcoin ETF based on the arbitrage spread was reduced to zero, and liquidity was compressed;
Second, the liquidity of the altcoins in this round was extremely compressed after the leeks were blocked from the ETF door;
Third, the dealers do not want to be dealers for a large number of altcoins that have not yet released their chips, because the project parties are too ruthless.

In this round of bull market, I have the following suggestions for altcoins: there will still be altcoin bull markets in this round of bull market, but it just requires an environment of capital release; even if there is a loose waterproof environment in this round of bull market, the bull market of altcoins will not be too many times, so lower your expectations; don't be superstitious about the value of altcoins, this round of altcoins is basically "worthless", don't think that technical developers have a halo, in fact, when they are at the end of their rope, they are even more unkind than us; reduce the proportion of altcoins, hold on to big pie, and other stable income tracks, such as big pie mining, chain games and UNI and other quantitative; don't buy altcoins as soon as they go online, this is the best time for the project party to ship and reap the benefits, wait for the bubble to be squeezed for two or three months; don't have too high expectations for altcoins, this may very well be the time for the second project party to ship and reap the benefits, or it may be the time for the VC who has been cheated to quickly throw away chips for arbitrage, breaking the issue price will become the norm, especially when your coins have to be locked for more than half a year. Basically, the project party's goods will be sold in large quantities in this half year. We no longer have the rigid mindset that the Shanzhai market will soar in the bull market and plummet in the bear market. Perhaps in the context of the so-called bull market, only projects that have actually gained customers and revenue in the application in the near future are worth investing in. We must also continue to observe how the bear market develops. It is very likely that the bear market will also begin to have independent market conditions for valuable projects. From this point of view, when the Shanzhai profits are gone and the halo of the value currency is gone, this is the time to review the rational value return multiples, and it is also an opportunity to help blockchain projects step down from the altar of changing the world, and it is also an opportunity to promote the project party's governance structure to be more fair, transparent, and highly involved in the community. In the future, I will not play in opaque projects. Opaqueness means that the project party is corrupt. Starting from me, from now on, I refuse to pay for garbage projects like ZK.

The current situation is that absolute power will inevitably lead to absolute corruption. A large number of projects no longer seek to win-win with financiers, users, and developers, but instead gamble on limited stock, use the rights ceded by all parties, and engage in fraud and corruption under the slogan of achieving the great revival of the project. It is very likely that the project owners will find that this round of bull market is no longer an unlimited resource, and in limited resources, my project may not only have no disruptive innovation ideas, but also be difficult to create ripples in the short term when developing incremental applications. If I can't get it done, I can't start a business in vain, I have to get the money first. Note that in traditional industries, there are no customers and things can't be sold. Entrepreneurs can't get rich at all, but the Internet model has set a precedent, but it is mainly to cheat the financiers' money and improve their lives. The blockchain industry is even more of a scam by financiers and small shareholders. This industry really needs to be properly regulated! If you can get it done, you want to get it done, but you can't get it done in the short term, what should you do? Don't be shameless first, and store food for the winter. If my project owner can't make money from the market, can't I cheat money from investors? I think most project owners are the former. They knew they couldn't get it done, so they got money first. A few project owners think that they can start well, and they just need the market to give them time. However, seeing that other project owners are so well-off, they can’t help but follow suit and make some money first. Whoever trusts the project the most will start with the person they trust the most.     VC projects really don’t care about their reputation.

Zhou Chu, will the world be peaceful if ZK, STARKNET, and MERLIN are eliminated? At the end of this article, I would like to say that ZK reflects the dirty face of the VC system and even the so-called value track of the entire blockchain industry. Because of the last round of such unkind big projects, the only one I can think of is bzz. Although FIL trapped many people, it also gave enough rewards for space testing and the benefits of early players. The so-called death of ICP is mainly because the currency was issued at the end of the bull market, and it was not the leeks cut by the project party. The main reason why investors did not make money was themselves. But in this round, rogue projects like ZK, starknet is, merlin is, sei is, wormhole is, and even L0 will be if nothing unexpected happens. If there is only one rogue, it would be fine, but all of them are so rogue. Not only are they ruthless to the financial father, that is, VC, but they also take whatever they want from the users who feed and clothe them. The bottom line of technology is not as good as that of capital. There is only one possibility, that the project party itself feels that this round of "bull market" is worrying? ZK relied on the financial backers to set up a stall, tricking a large number of black slaves to come and work for free, implying that there will be benefits in the future, and tricking a large number of small investors to buy 5-year options, implying that the future returns will be awesome. And solemnly swore: This is a decentralized country, power belongs to the community and the people! However, decentralization is just a slogan. The community has no decision-making power, political participation, or even useful suggestions on project development. It also has no right to know whether to issue airdrops, launch time, project ideas, etc. It all depends on the politicians inside the wall to keep it secret, requiring property disclosure but never advancing. What kind of decentralized republic is this? Isn't this the Central State? Of course, if the Central State, the leader is wise, it doesn't matter. Although the governance structure is doomed to endless troubles, at least in a bull market, the wise leader has a clear vision of the future, a conscience bottom line, gratitude for the parents who provide food and clothing, no or little exploitation, we still have money to make. If the project leader is crazy and does something particularly disgusting, such as directly exploiting the surplus value of black slaves, "Das Kapital" can be reread as a classic, and if he commits financial fraud against investors, small investors originally thought that they could make a big profit by making a small investment through labor, or at the very least they could contribute money and effort, and the project party could give them something. But now it is direct exploitation + fraud!

We have always fantasized that blockchain technology is still in its early stages, and that there is a vast ocean of applications. Every four years, we will come up with a big move and make a disruptive innovation. But there is no such thing this time, and there will be no such thing in the short term. There will only be some incremental progress. Incremental progress may be the improvement of infrastructure rather than reconstruction, the implementation of previous ideas rather than creation, and the gradual accumulation of customers for applications, from 1 to 100 rather than from 0 to 1. Therefore, this effect is not exciting enough, it is difficult to make people scream, and the hype effect is average. In addition, it is fast to come up with ideas, but difficult to realize them. Now the industry technology is in a dilemma that there is no new product, and the old product is far from landing. In the past, the good or bad development of blockchain technology was just icing on the cake for hype. When four years came, the bull market environment was there, and the public chain that was not fully tested was frozen due to code. Unfinished games can also issue coins in advance, and DAPPs without users can also open for business. Although technology is icing on the cake, at least the storytelling should not be too bad. So, what kind of deadlock has the development of blockchain technology entered to give birth to a naughty child like ZK? Maybe we are in a historical stage of proving "pseudo-demand". This article does not want to talk about the external problems such as the interest rate has not been cut yet, the serious VC premium, the lack of secondary market lock-in for new coins, but the heavy primary market lock-in for listed coins. You can read the "Why We Don't Make Money" series for more information. When there are no new products in the industry to continue to fool the masses, and the old products are not put into use, is it not the right time yet, or is it not possible at all? I think most tracks have been proven to be false demands, just like the telephone yellow pages, DOS system, Hummer input method, VCD optical drive, and even PDA, which are early 2B solutions of the Internet. They may also be eliminated like Mop, 8848, Huicong, MSN, etc. because they can't keep up with the times. So you think ZK is a big one, but it is more likely to be a big one.

In the past six months, we have been talking about how to prepare for the bull market and what stage the bull market is in now. This is probably an illusion. Looking back at the phenomenon, a stable and skyrocketing coin is Bitcoin, and Ethereum has followed loosely, all because of favorable policies such as ETFs. Another track that has skyrocketed is the inscription ecosystem, which also benefited from Bitcoin and is considered a disruptive innovation in the issuance of assets in this round of bull market. Other coins have increased several times or dozens of times, but it is obviously not a general increase of several times in the value track. And the increase is other people's coins, while the value coins do not increase, and MEME increases first. Experienced old friends should agree with the following view: The main reason for the bull market in blockchain lies in the external environment, that is, the supply and demand relationship and the change in the water release environment after the tidal effect of the halving + interest rate cut cycle, and the competitive environment is not bad. It will not be like now, the total market value of the currency circle has not increased much, the currency volume has increased by 7-8 times, and no one has tripped up the investment, unlike now, investors have not made money, passively stuck today, and summoned tomorrow.     At present, except for the halving, other external environments are not mature. Therefore, the external environment does not have the foundation for a bull market, and some aspects will not be available in the short term, such as the last round of near-zero interest rate environment, such as cutting the amount of coins by 90%, not so many subdividing the same track, and the policy environment where there is no worry about deposits and withdrawals, and no worries about issuing coins and mining. Therefore, not only has the big bull not arrived, but the big bull you imagine will probably not appear in the next few years.

Why don't you make money? Because you can't make money by playing around, and you can't make money now according to the "correct" strategy of making money in the last bull market! What is the so-called "correct" strategy? Adopt the operating strategy of "targeting the value track, speculating on new rather than old, investing heavily, holding for the long term, and obtaining super high returns far higher than the returns of the market such as Bitcoin and Ethereum".     Why is this correct? Because in the last bull market, the overall rise, the cottage rose much more than Bitcoin and Ethereum, the new currency rose more wildly than the old currency, and the valuable fundamentals rose more steadily than MEME. Reverse the review, why is such an investment routine "correct"? Because this corresponds to our correct understanding of the blockchain industry: when the bull market comes, there will be a sufficient capital release environment, a relaxed competition pattern in the same track, VC institutions that are not so greedy, a free investment environment, the king bomb subversive innovation ideas proposed, the idealistic sentiment of technology changing the world, and the project party that wants to cut leeks is also a long-term project party. And buying coins can make money, doing other mining, new listings, and thinking about it will make more money! Obviously, there is no always correct strategy. According to the correct cognition, the corresponding strategy is formulated, which can be called the correct strategy. When we replicate the "correct" strategy and cannot get the same results, it means that there is something wrong with our cognition of the industry. What is wrong with the cognition?
First, it is very likely that it is not a bull market now, or it has not reached the big bull market, or there is no big bull market as you think.

Another problem with cognition is that blockchain technology will continue to move forward and convince people with value.

Although I disclosed to you 8 months ago that ZK is a rogue project owner.     
Picture
But I have never seen such a shameless project owner.
They blatantly set the "radish airdrop" rules for their own insider trading, but those who meet the conditions may not get coins, and those who do not meet the conditions have also heard that they have received coins. They also claim that "all interpretation rights belong to this project owner". When the community is in a haze, the project owner is sunny every day? !
Picture
Do you think your mother opened the project?     
Alex said, yes, his mother opened it. But the community is everything!
Picture
I feel like I have heard this nonsense before, People is notion, notion is people? WTF? No wonder it is called ZK nation, the case has been solved, it seems that they have learned well.
By the way, this is the main point of this article: the decentralized world should be an ideal paradise of rule of law, transparency and equality, but it is obvious that the current VC projects are heading to another extreme: the magical Latin America of rule of man, corruption and dictatorship.
ZKs, they are not like the 1984 version of North Korea where speech is closed, but they are like Latin America and India which will do whatever they want even if you insult them.