Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week carefully maintaining the $60,000 support, as sentiment walks the line between bullish and bearish.
BTC price action sticks tightly to a narrow trading range – what could cause a drastic change in pace?
This week is as good a time as any for cryptocurrency market volatility. US macro data will combine with comments from Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, in what could be an explosive mix for risk assets.
There is a lot at stake for Bitcoin bulls, even in this specific range – the market has already begun a deeper correction, and traders are already identifying levels that could come next.
These mainly focus on the liquidity of bids below $50,000 – an attractive area for a long-term market bottom. However, on shorter time frames, BTC/USD appears to be more interested in clearing liquidity to the upside as the week begins.
Cointelegraph takes a look at the current situation when it comes to BTC/USD performance.
Bitcoin price: about $60,000
The almost unnoticed weekly close means Bitcoin remains in familiar territory as this week's TradFi sessions get underway.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Trading View
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show no volatility on BTC/USD until the end of the week.
More importantly, $60,000 has held up since it was reclaimed on May 3, and for some, this level represents the dividing line for bulls.
Commenting on the chart uploaded to
“Bitcoin is still holding above 60k and breaking the downtrend,” he wrote.
“This blue OB will be key in the short term, we missed it and will revisit the lows and likely much lower. Possibly holding and another step to take liquidity above the highs at 64-67k.
Bitcoin/USD charts. Source: Mark Cullen/X
Cullen added that macroeconomic data releases this week, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on May 14, should be pivotal to Bitcoin price movement.
As Cointelegraph reported, the $60,000 area represents more than just quotes – key moving averages and other bull market support trend lines have converged there.
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that the so-called “bull market support range” is still rising in price.
“It completely bounced off the bull market support range last week,” he told X followers over the weekend.
"So far during this bull cycle and previous ones, it has provided good support. Let's see how we do from here."
BTC/USD chart with bull market support range. Source: Dan CryptoTrades/X
The support range consists of two exponential moving averages, or EMAs.
Meanwhile, the latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that overnight through May 13, a new set of bids worth $65 million were placed at around $60,250.
Meanwhile, the cloud of demand liquidity that had been waiting above $62,000 is now being cleared in what could be the next spot price battleground.
BTC Liquidation Heatmap (screenshot). Source: Coinglass
A day earlier, fellow trader Scio said he suspected “negative spot buying” was responsible for support nearing $60,000 without seeing a test.
“Overall good spot bid depth is $60k-$58k,” added part of X's comments.
CPI is up as Fed's Powell is scheduled to speak
All eyes are on macroeconomic developments in the US this week, as printed data comes thick and fast.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the highlight when it comes to discussing inflation and risk assets' hopes for lower interest rates.
However, before that, May 14 will see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April, along with the appearance of Fed Chairman Powell in a public speech.
Powell will discuss the economy during a moderated discussion with Claes Knot, head of the Dutch central bank, De Nederlandse Bank, at the Foreign Bankers Association's annual general meeting in Amsterdam.
Markets have shown to be very sensitive to Powell's tone when it comes to hints about future policy moves.
The latest data from CME Group's FedWatch tool underscores the sentiment - traders see no chance of a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in June, with the possibility likely to increase significantly in September.
Fed interest rate target odds as of May 13 (screenshot). Source: CME Group
“If CPI inflation rises again this week, it will mark the third straight monthly increase,” commented trading source The Kobeissi Letter alongside its weekly macro diary published on X, describing the next few days as “very busy.”
Long-term holders suspend BTC distribution for 2024
Experienced Bitcoin traders are channeling a 2021 bull market, as evidenced by some on-chain data.
In a positive development, Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are in the midst of boosting their exposure to Bitcoin following its market distribution throughout 2024.
This is the conclusion of J. A. Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Uploading some of his latest findings to X, he said that just like in mid-2021, LTH entities are trying to seize more of the BTC supply.
“They see the low price of Bitcoin as an opportunity to accumulate coins cheaply, then reintroduce them to the market during hype phases,” Martin explains in an accompanying analysis on CryptoQuant.
“Interestingly, a trend line can be drawn between data points from 2018, 2021 and 2024. There is a cyclical trend that occurs, as described previously, whereby long-term holders buy in bear markets and sell in rising markets. However, there is a broader and more permanent trend It also plays a role: despite this cyclical trend, a steadily increasing share of Bitcoin is held by long-term holders.
Ownership of Bitcoin LTH supply. Source: Marton/X
As Cointelegraph reported, both Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) speculators, known as short-term holders or STHs, form another nearby support level, which has held broadly throughout the current bull market.
Cryptocurrency funding rates continue to reset
Bitcoin and altcoin market watchers may not need to wait much longer to see more diverse conditions return.
The current picture across derivatives markets shows just how neutral cryptocurrencies are now.
In particular, funding rates remain neutral regardless of near-term price movements — something that makes Bitcoin's journey to all-time highs in March look like a blip on the radar.
“Cryptocurrency funding prices have now fallen at neutral levels for a longer period than in February/March,” Daan Crypto Trades noted about this phenomenon.
CoinGlass data shows a broad reset of funding at the end of March.
“This is basically how things work: market slowdown, breakout, overheating, reset. Rinse and repeat,” Daan Crypto Trades added.
Heatmap of crypto funding rate. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X “Fear and Hesitation”
While prices are operating within a specific corridor, volatility is already evident elsewhere in cryptocurrencies.
Related: Bitcoin is trading sideways while TON, RNDR, PEPE, and AR are flashing bullish signals
The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index, a classic market sentiment gauge, is fluctuating between different states this month.
The lagging indicator uses a combination of factors to identify impulsive trends among cryptocurrency traders, with extreme readings indicating that the market may be witnessing a knee-jerk reversal.
The Fear and Greed Index stood at 57/100 as of May 13 — a fairly neutral reading and a strong contrast to the 71/100 seen on May 6 — inches away from “extreme greed” territory.
Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Al-Badil.me
In a new analysis last week, research firm Santiment also attributed the decline in Bitcoin chain activity to “fear and hesitation” on the part of traders.
The accompanying chart revealed that the overall pool of on-chain actions has fallen to levels last seen in 2019.
“Bitcoin on-chain activity is near historic lows as traders have slowed their transactions significantly in the two months since its all-time high,” Santiment wrote.
“This is not necessarily a sign of further declines in the price of Bitcoin, but rather a sign of fan fear and hesitation.”
Bitcoin on-chain activity chart. Source: Santiment/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision
