About 3,000 BTC flowed out of the exchange yesterday. It had been flowing in for the past few days, but it started to flow out yesterday, which is a small positive (but now the small positive cannot affect the market, it is not strong)

Stablecoins still haven’t flowed into exchanges in large quantities (the bottom-fishing sentiment is not strong, as long as there is selling, the price will fall)

There is not much inflow of funds into US ETFs (or they are all waiting for a result)

In the near future, let’s see whether Israel and Hamas can reach an agreement on peace talks (if they can, that’s good. If they can’t, and they continue to fight, then there will be a collapse)

In the medium term, we still have to look at the Fed’s policy. (Attitude and expectations of interest rate cuts)

The next big data is the CPI data to be released on May 15 (next Wednesday).

Keep more bullets in case of bad news and buy at the bottom.

On September 15, 2023, the bull market started, and the market went on for half a year! Bitcoin also broke a new high, reaching a maximum of 73777, exceeding 500,000 RMB per coin.

There have been pullbacks, plunges, and spikes in the middle, but they have been recovered every time. The real wash-out started on April 1st, and it has been 40 days so far.

It is inevitable that Bitcoin will break new highs. Every bull market will break new highs. I still believe and believe that 73777 is not the top, and it will break through again after the adjustment!

The current market is still in the adjustment period and it will take some time. At least it will not go up all at once in a short period of time. The market in May will not be worse than that in April, but it will not be particularly good either. This round of adjustment may last until June, which means there may be another month of difficult times!

Once it starts, it won't end easily, no matter it's an uptrend or a pullback, once it starts, there must be a result! If it goes up, you have to sell, and if it's a pullback, you have to buy low-priced chips. This takes time, and it's a cyclical time!

When a market trend ends, it enters a correction period. Before a new market trend begins, there will definitely be a market clean-up, using various news to continuously change hands of chips.

Although we have entered a bull market since September last year, there are not many truly amazing projects so far. Looking back at the last bull market, there were countless coins that increased tenfold and hundredfold, but there are still very few in this round, and there are still many projects that have not yet been launched!

In the second half of the year, consensus has been reached, and I still believe that the Bitcoin ecosystem will explode, high-quality projects will be pulled up, and high-quality projects will be launched in an endless stream.

At present, there are still many real large off-market funds that have not entered the market, and fresh blood has not yet exploded into the cryptocurrency circle. At the end of each bull market, more and more outsiders will flock into the circle. To put it bluntly, a large number of new leeks will enter the market.

The sideways consolidation will consume your patience. If the environment does not change, you will definitely reap rewards if you hold on!

Even now, we have experienced many coins that have increased three, five, or even ten times. We can even find coins that have increased ten or even a hundred times. But how many people can really hold on to them? The first problem is cognition, and the second is mentality.

No one wants to see a garbage market, but it is a process that must be experienced. What we see is what the market makers want us to see. What we haven’t seen yet, the market makers are also preparing for!

The bull market is not over, the crazy bull market will definitely come, there is no need to worry about the spot market!

What we have to do is to hold on, be patient, and control our hands and avoid touching contracts. Contracts are a road of no return, so those who don’t have good self-control should try not to touch them!

The risk of using spare money to speculate in cryptocurrencies is too great. No one can predict the black swan event, so you must use funds that will not affect your normal life! Borrowing and lending are prohibited. Investing with spare money is the best option.

Don’t go short in a bull market and don’t go long in a bear market!

Set your own target price. Buying is easy, selling depends on cognition, and holding depends on faith!

The only way to survive in the cryptocurrency world is to keep learning and adapting to the environment and improving your cognition! Digital currency and the cryptocurrency world are not just about pursuing profits, but also a test of your humanity, patience, and wisdom. It depends on who can hold on to the end!

Let me tell you a fact that you all don't like to hear. No matter what kind of analysis you make in the cryptocurrency circle, it can't escape the curse of cycles. Those who are crazy about the bull market now may be crazy about the eternal bull market in 2025. Have you really experienced a bull market? This increase is far from enough. Ethereum has only reached a certain level, and it has not even broken its high point. Although Bitcoin is strong, it is far from enough if you look at it from a broader perspective. Forget about the copycats, they are dying. Only those who have not experienced a bull market can say that this increase is bullish! !

Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together. If you have any questions, you can comment and ask questions