团子财经
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每日宏观分析，大盘走势解读，一起把握区块链时代的红利，公众号团子财经
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How crazy can the next bull market be? How to find 100x coins?
Let’s not mention it since it was too long ago. If we only look at the last bull market (2021-2022), Bitcoin was already halved for the third time. Bitcoin rose by up to eight times. After all, Bitcoin is already the number one cryptocurrency. The market value of big coins is already very high, and it is unlikely that they will rise dozens of times again. What about other coins?
The price of Ethereum that day was 188.6. It hit a historical high price of 4878 a year and a half later. It increased by 2486% in a year and a half, about 25 times. This was not a small coin that had just started. It was already the second largest Ethereum coin at that time. currency.
If we look further down, Cardano, ADA, which was ranked thirteenth at the time, had a price of 0.04768 that day. It also hit a historical high price of 3.09 about a year and a half later. It increased by 6380%, nearly 64 times, in a year and a half.
The price of Ethereum that day was 188.6. It hit a historical high price of 4878 a year and a half later. It increased by 2486% in a year and a half, about 25 times. This was not a small coin that had just started. It was already the second largest Ethereum coin at that time. currency.
If we look further down, Cardano, ADA, which was ranked thirteenth at the time, had a price of 0.04768 that day. It also hit a historical high price of 3.09 about a year and a half later. It increased by 6380%, nearly 64 times, in a year and a half.
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In 2025, Bitcoin at $150,000+, Ethereum at $6,000+, which altcoins can produce hundredfold projects?
Despite signs of market liquidity shortages during the holidays, it is a fact that Bitcoin is about to rise.
Bitcoin is currently down more than 10% from its peak of $108,300 recorded on December 17. Data shows that the trading price has been below $100,000 since December 19.
Although momentum is slow, Bitcoin could rise to $105,000 in January.
As investors seek to allocate capital across various asset classes, Bitcoin's market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations. By the end of January, Bitcoin may fluctuate between $95,000 and $110,000.
Bitcoin is currently down more than 10% from its peak of $108,300 recorded on December 17. Data shows that the trading price has been below $100,000 since December 19.
Although momentum is slow, Bitcoin could rise to $105,000 in January.
As investors seek to allocate capital across various asset classes, Bitcoin's market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations. By the end of January, Bitcoin may fluctuate between $95,000 and $110,000.
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Three Tracks I Think Will Erupt in 25 Years
The first is the AI sector. Most current AI is still meme concepts, and no standout projects have emerged. After a year-long hot trend, there will definitely be a breakout project that will trigger wealth creation effects.
The second is the DEFI sector, which is essential infrastructure in a bull market. Especially now that Trump is in office, the current planning is extremely favorable for the development of DEFI, particularly for projects that have revenue-generating capabilities, such as AAVE, UNI, etc. The Trump family's continuous investment in DEFI coins is strong proof of this.
Lastly, there is the RWA sector. Institutions like BlackRock are accelerating their layouts. For traditional assets, this provides a new settlement method, allowing illiquid assets to be arbitraged or quickly settled. The influx of funds brought by ETFs has already demonstrated the interest of external capital in the crypto market. Once the trend of RWA erupts in the future, the influx of capital will be unimaginable. Compliance and practicality will be the main themes of this bull market.
The first is the AI sector. Most current AI is still meme concepts, and no standout projects have emerged. After a year-long hot trend, there will definitely be a breakout project that will trigger wealth creation effects.
The second is the DEFI sector, which is essential infrastructure in a bull market. Especially now that Trump is in office, the current planning is extremely favorable for the development of DEFI, particularly for projects that have revenue-generating capabilities, such as AAVE, UNI, etc. The Trump family's continuous investment in DEFI coins is strong proof of this.
Lastly, there is the RWA sector. Institutions like BlackRock are accelerating their layouts. For traditional assets, this provides a new settlement method, allowing illiquid assets to be arbitraged or quickly settled. The influx of funds brought by ETFs has already demonstrated the interest of external capital in the crypto market. Once the trend of RWA erupts in the future, the influx of capital will be unimaginable. Compliance and practicality will be the main themes of this bull market.
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Interest Rate Cut Expectations Lowered, BTC High-Position Consolidation; After Liquidity Recovery, It's a Crazy Bull Market
Since the issuance of the BTC Spot ETF, the correlation between BTC prices and U.S. stocks has become increasingly strong. This has been vividly reflected in the market since November.
After Trump's election victory, U.S. stocks and BTC simultaneously started the 'Trump market.' Trading parties have strong confidence in Trump's economic policies, driving this market to continue rising, lasting until December 18th. On that day, the Fed made hawkish statements, suggesting a possible change in monetary policy, and the market expected the number of rate cuts in 2025 to be significantly revised down from 4 to 2. After this, both U.S. stocks and BTC started significant downward adjustments.
After Trump's election victory, U.S. stocks and BTC simultaneously started the 'Trump market.' Trading parties have strong confidence in Trump's economic policies, driving this market to continue rising, lasting until December 18th. On that day, the Fed made hawkish statements, suggesting a possible change in monetary policy, and the market expected the number of rate cuts in 2025 to be significantly revised down from 4 to 2. After this, both U.S. stocks and BTC started significant downward adjustments.
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Does Alipay's touch-to-pay have vulnerabilities?
It feels like the money spent is the same as flowing water.
In the cryptocurrency world, money is spent like dirt, and life is just patching things up.
It feels like the money spent is the same as flowing water.
In the cryptocurrency world, money is spent like dirt, and life is just patching things up.
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The market is currently experiencing a short-term volatile correction, and part of the profit-making funds at the end of the year will be cashed out. In addition, the market needs time to digest the Fed's possible hawkish turn and policy expectations of reducing the number of interest rate cuts at the beginning of next year. In the short term, there is a lack of new driving force, and the price may fluctuate between $90,000 and $105,000.
After the consolidation phase is over, funds will re-enter the market, and the negative news will be gradually digested. The market will usher in a new round of increases in the first quarter of the first half of the year. The price of Bitcoin may break through the $120,000 mark at this stage, and it is expected to reach $150,000 to $200,000 in an optimistic situation.
Throughout the historical cycle, the Bitcoin bull market usually enters an adjustment period about 15 to 18 months after the halving, which also means that the market is likely to enter an adjustment period after hitting a new high in the middle or second half of the year.
After the consolidation phase is over, funds will re-enter the market, and the negative news will be gradually digested. The market will usher in a new round of increases in the first quarter of the first half of the year. The price of Bitcoin may break through the $120,000 mark at this stage, and it is expected to reach $150,000 to $200,000 in an optimistic situation.
Throughout the historical cycle, the Bitcoin bull market usually enters an adjustment period about 15 to 18 months after the halving, which also means that the market is likely to enter an adjustment period after hitting a new high in the middle or second half of the year.
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The market is currently experiencing a short-term volatile correction, and part of the profit-making funds at the end of the year will be cashed out. In addition, the market needs time to digest the Fed's possible hawkish turn and policy expectations of reducing the number of interest rate cuts at the beginning of next year. In the short term, there is a lack of new driving force, and the price may fluctuate between $90,000 and $105,000.
After the consolidation phase is over, funds will re-enter the market, and the negative news will be gradually digested. The market will usher in a new round of increases in the first quarter of the first half of the year. The price of Bitcoin may break through the $120,000 mark at this stage, and it is expected to reach $150,000 to $200,000 in an optimistic scenario.
Throughout the historical cycle, the Bitcoin bull market usually enters an adjustment period about 15 to 18 months after the halving, which also means that the market is likely to enter an adjustment period after hitting a new high in the middle or second half of the year.
After the consolidation phase is over, funds will re-enter the market, and the negative news will be gradually digested. The market will usher in a new round of increases in the first quarter of the first half of the year. The price of Bitcoin may break through the $120,000 mark at this stage, and it is expected to reach $150,000 to $200,000 in an optimistic scenario.
Throughout the historical cycle, the Bitcoin bull market usually enters an adjustment period about 15 to 18 months after the halving, which also means that the market is likely to enter an adjustment period after hitting a new high in the middle or second half of the year.
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When will the new round of copycat season start? Build positions in batches and operate patiently
The alt season often begins at the high point of Bitcoin. The first time was when BTC hit $69,000 but failed to break through effectively; the second time was when BTC hit $100,000.
The next altcoin cycle is likely to begin after BTC stabilizes above $100,000. I can’t predict the future, and while I hope this will happen in the first quarter of 2025, based on facts, we may also see a repeat of the 2024 Q2 and Q3 volatility in the coming months - we must be prepared for this.
Cottage Season Condition 1: Evaluation of Capital Overflow Condition
The next altcoin cycle is likely to begin after BTC stabilizes above $100,000. I can’t predict the future, and while I hope this will happen in the first quarter of 2025, based on facts, we may also see a repeat of the 2024 Q2 and Q3 volatility in the coming months - we must be prepared for this.
Cottage Season Condition 1: Evaluation of Capital Overflow Condition
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Will the market rise after Trump takes office? What other factors are currently affecting the market trend?
Overall, the current indicator group shows that the crypto market is in the mid-stage of a bull market, with major market indicators well above the cycle lows, but not yet at the levels that marked the previous market tops. High trading volumes and continued growth in DeFi lock-up represent further increases in market activity, while the growth in the total amount of stablecoins and accelerated capital inflows indicate that the market funding environment is loose and liquidity is increasing, providing basic support for the rise in the cryptocurrency market and driving prices higher.
What else can threaten the market at present?
Currently, Bitcoin prices have largely reflected the market’s optimistic expectations for policy shifts. However, this also means that if the policy is delayed or falls short of market expectations, it may have a significant impact on market sentiment. For example, the replacement of the SEC Chairman or the related release process of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan may become potential risk points.
What else can threaten the market at present?
Currently, Bitcoin prices have largely reflected the market’s optimistic expectations for policy shifts. However, this also means that if the policy is delayed or falls short of market expectations, it may have a significant impact on market sentiment. For example, the replacement of the SEC Chairman or the related release process of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan may become potential risk points.
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European and American users are gradually returning from their holidays, and the overall market heat has picked up. However, the market is currently clearly divided, and there has not yet been a relatively sustained hot spot.
In late January, Trump took office, and the entire market was very optimistic about 2025. However, the obvious correction of US stocks in recent days has also brought greater uncertainty to the market. This month's interest rate meeting is very likely to maintain no interest rate cuts, and the market will still have to wait for new positive fermentation in the short term.
In late January, Trump took office, and the entire market was very optimistic about 2025. However, the obvious correction of US stocks in recent days has also brought greater uncertainty to the market. This month's interest rate meeting is very likely to maintain no interest rate cuts, and the market will still have to wait for new positive fermentation in the short term.
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One major trap in a bull market is the inability to sell. Even when the market rises, taking some profits is key to maintaining long-term advantages. Even if you miss higher points, managing risk always takes precedence over chasing higher returns.
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Focus on opportunities for capital rotation in the market and develop your own trading strategy.
In the cryptocurrency market, major players profit through accumulation and distribution, and during this process, on-chain holding behaviors inevitably change. The core of trading strategy lies in how to capture the behavioral patterns of major players through data. For example, during accumulation, major players exhibit specific on-chain behaviors that can be aggregated and transformed into trading signals.
However, when more people adopt similar strategies, major players may adjust their strategies or even conceal their behaviors. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be continuously adjusted and optimized to identify potential hidden behaviors of major players; this is an ongoing game.
However, when more people adopt similar strategies, major players may adjust their strategies or even conceal their behaviors. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be continuously adjusted and optimized to identify potential hidden behaviors of major players; this is an ongoing game.
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FTX will begin paying its former users $16 billion in stablecoins on January 3rd. A portion of this is likely to be reinvested into the cryptocurrency market.
Previously, some tokens held by FTX/Alameda, such as SOL/WLD, have been largely sold off. The compensation received by creditors is in cash rather than tokens, indirectly reducing market selling pressure and increasing the likelihood of some compensation funds flowing back into crypto, thereby boosting market sentiment.
Previously, some tokens held by FTX/Alameda, such as SOL/WLD, have been largely sold off. The compensation received by creditors is in cash rather than tokens, indirectly reducing market selling pressure and increasing the likelihood of some compensation funds flowing back into crypto, thereby boosting market sentiment.
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This wave of AI agent concept coins, none were caught
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The bull market is still on; the important thing is to know when to cash out and secure profits
With multiple Bitcoin ETFs being launched, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifting to ease, and continuous political support for cryptocurrencies in the U.S., Bitcoin has made a strong comeback in 2024, becoming one of the best-performing assets of the year, with this year's increase standing out.
Now entering 2025, the market is starting to focus on 'how far this bull market can go.' Favorable conditions in the overall environment include: rapid growth of ETF scale, Bitcoin prices once reaching the milestone of 100,000, and Donald Trump being re-elected president, leading digital asset policies in a positive direction. The influx of hot money from Wall Street has made Bitcoin an important choice for asset allocation.
Now entering 2025, the market is starting to focus on 'how far this bull market can go.' Favorable conditions in the overall environment include: rapid growth of ETF scale, Bitcoin prices once reaching the milestone of 100,000, and Donald Trump being re-elected president, leading digital asset policies in a positive direction. The influx of hot money from Wall Street has made Bitcoin an important choice for asset allocation.
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Is the bull market pushing forward, and will Ethereum take the lead?
ETH will be the best-performing mainstream token in the next quarter.
Since Trump's victory on November 6, the influx of funds into spot Ethereum ETFs has significantly increased, with growth trends during the same period even surpassing those of Bitcoin spot ETFs.
Entering late December, this trend has become even more evident.
Data shows that during the trading week (Eastern Time December 23 to December 27), the net inflow of spot Ethereum ETFs was $349 million; during the same period, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $388 million — this clear difference in fund movement may indicate a better outlook for ETH in the future.
Since Trump's victory on November 6, the influx of funds into spot Ethereum ETFs has significantly increased, with growth trends during the same period even surpassing those of Bitcoin spot ETFs.
Entering late December, this trend has become even more evident.
Data shows that during the trading week (Eastern Time December 23 to December 27), the net inflow of spot Ethereum ETFs was $349 million; during the same period, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $388 million — this clear difference in fund movement may indicate a better outlook for ETH in the future.
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Bitcoin Begins to Test the Bottom Again, Is a Buying Opportunity Approaching?
From recent times until around January 5 next year, this time window may gradually enter a better buying time for Bitcoin.
1. On the macro level of dollar liquidity: due to the regular short-term liquidity squeeze at the end of the year, resulting in a short-term spike in SOFR, squeezing risk assets.
It is expected that liquidity will recover around January 4 (at that time, SOFR will return to below EFFR, which was also the case at the end of 2023; SOFR will return to normal on January 4, 2024).
Specifically, the logic chain is: financial institutions start to reduce leverage and increase cash or cash equivalents in response to regulatory compliance at the end of the year -> short-term market liquidity is withdrawn -> less money leads to a spike in ultra-short-term financing rates -> strategies in the US stock market that are extremely sensitive to short-term rates are forced to close positions -> US stocks are squeezed -> Bitcoin is squeezed accordingly.
1. On the macro level of dollar liquidity: due to the regular short-term liquidity squeeze at the end of the year, resulting in a short-term spike in SOFR, squeezing risk assets.
It is expected that liquidity will recover around January 4 (at that time, SOFR will return to below EFFR, which was also the case at the end of 2023; SOFR will return to normal on January 4, 2024).
Specifically, the logic chain is: financial institutions start to reduce leverage and increase cash or cash equivalents in response to regulatory compliance at the end of the year -> short-term market liquidity is withdrawn -> less money leads to a spike in ultra-short-term financing rates -> strategies in the US stock market that are extremely sensitive to short-term rates are forced to close positions -> US stocks are squeezed -> Bitcoin is squeezed accordingly.
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In the last bull market, those who seized the opportunity made a fortune and exited the circle.
In the previous bull market, those who capitalized on DeFi also saw their investments multiply by a hundred times.
In this bull market, those who take advantage of AI + crypto will not do poorly either.
The essence is: in a big opportunity and trend, new assets will emerge in batches, most of which are junk assets, but there are also a few blue-chip assets.
Seizing just a few of these opportunities is enough.
In the previous bull market, those who capitalized on DeFi also saw their investments multiply by a hundred times.
In this bull market, those who take advantage of AI + crypto will not do poorly either.
The essence is: in a big opportunity and trend, new assets will emerge in batches, most of which are junk assets, but there are also a few blue-chip assets.
Seizing just a few of these opportunities is enough.
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Your 2024 keywords are 'Couldn’t Hold', 'Knew It Earlier', 'If Only', 'I Knew', 'If', 'Would Have Been Better If Not Thrown Away', 'A Bit High', 'No More Talking, All In', 'Heavy Position', 'It Will Drop Again', 'Lost Again', 'Should I Run?', 'Take It Back', 'I'm Scared', 'Out of Money', 'Forgot', 'Can't Buy In', 'Wow', 'Stolen', 'Can It Still Rise?', 'Take Off', 'Oh No, Stolen', 'What Is Better Than dev', 'Settled Down', 'Wow, where is dev?'
ps (I don't often stay up late either)
ps (I don't often stay up late either)