Let’s not mention it since it was too long ago. If we only look at the last bull market (2021-2022), Bitcoin was already halved for the third time. Bitcoin rose by up to eight times. After all, Bitcoin is already the number one cryptocurrency. The market value of big coins is already very high, and it is unlikely that they will rise dozens of times again. What about other coins?
The price of Ethereum that day was 188.6. It hit a historical high price of 4878 a year and a half later. It increased by 2486% in a year and a half, about 25 times. This was not a small coin that had just started. It was already the second largest Ethereum coin at that time. currency.
If we look further down, Cardano, ADA, which was ranked thirteenth at the time, had a price of 0.04768 that day. It also hit a historical high price of 3.09 about a year and a half later. It increased by 6380%, nearly 64 times, in a year and a half.
If you look for smaller coins, the increase will be even more impressive. It is currently ranked tenth and the very well-known public chain coin SOL. It had just been launched not long ago, and the price today was only 0.6. It also reached 259.96 about a year and a half later. The price is high, with an increase of 4322%, more than 400 times.
How many hundreds of coins were there in the last bull market?
During the last bull market of 2020-2021, 61 hundred times coins appeared among the top 600 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
What are the characteristics of 100x coins? The 100x coins in each bull market may be a little different, but this number is important for us investors in the cryptocurrency industry to know that the 100x coins in cryptocurrency are not myths or fairy tales, but a reality that will actually happen. The probability is not low either, with 61 of the top 600 coins appearing. However, as the market matures and supervision is gradually put in place, theoretically the probability of 100x coins appearing will become lower and lower.
How to find the next 100x coin? Understanding the pulse of the market is the core
Of course, you can't find a hundred-fold coin, but there are some ways to increase the chance of encountering a hundred-fold coin. Here we use two methods to try to screen out potential 100x coins, one is market value, and the other is track category. The first filter to find a 100x coin: market capitalization MC / fully diluted valuation FDV
The current total market value of Bitcoin is about 500 billion U.S. dollars. If it rises another hundred times, the market value will exceed 50 trillion U.S. dollars. This number is more than twice the current supply of U.S. dollar M2. Bitcoin will directly become the world's largest currency. The current total market value of Ethereum is close to US$200 billion. If it rises another hundred times, the market value will be US$20 trillion, and the current total market value of Apple, the world's largest company, will only be US$2.6 trillion. The above two figures are intended to show that there is an upper limit to market value. If the market value is already huge, it will become increasingly difficult to continue to rise. If you want to find a 100-fold coin that can rise a hundred times, you are unlikely to invest in a project with an already large market value. Go find it.
Because cryptocurrencies have different issuance plans, in addition to considering market capitalization, sometimes it is more accurate to consider FDV.
Market capitalization MC = currency price x issuance volume
Fully diluted valuation (FDV), the currency price x includes the maximum issuance amount that will be issued in the future
How much market capitalization is called too big?
A more conservative estimation method: refer to the market capitalization of similar leading companies during the last bull market, and then divide by one hundred.
Suppose you want to find the next public chain project to get 100 times the coin, and refer to the leaders of the same category. The current leader in the public chain field is Ethereum. Among the top few are BNB, ADA, SOL, etc., refer to the performance of these top public chain projects in the previous round. The highest market capitalization during the bull market was that of Ethereum, which reached about 500 billion U.S. dollars, and the others were around 70-80 billion U.S. dollars. Taking the low point as a conservative reference, 70 billion U.S. dollars divided by 100 = 700 million U.S. dollars. The first filtering indicator comes out. Look for public chain projects with a current market capitalization (MC) of less than $700 million. To be more conservative, it is best to look for a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of less than $700 million.
If it is a project with no maximum issuance limit and no FDV value, you must pay close attention to the project's token issuance status. Is inflation serious? If the issuance is not well controlled and the issuance is increased too quickly, even if the market value increases during the bull market, it may be due to the increase in the number of issuances rather than the increase in currency prices.
Exceeding this value does not mean that it will not rise, it just means that because the market value is already too large, it is more difficult to achieve a hundredfold increase. Different categories have different market caps due to different market sizes. The 700 million in the example is calculated based on the public chain category. For projects in different fields, it is recommended to refer to similar leading figures for calculation.
The second filter to find 100x coins: track category
If a project can grow hundreds of times, it must be based on some kind of explosive growth, perhaps ecological applications or revenue gains, and this usually happens in areas where there is demand and scale.
Cryptocurrency is just a type of asset, and there are multiple application categories. Some categories themselves have relatively large market sizes, while others are smaller or face more difficult market expansion. It is difficult to correctly predict the next track category that will explode. Unknown things are difficult to grasp, but some are known to have demand and scale. The simpler way is to find the next potential track category in this track category. Emerging projects.
Public chain currency
Multi-chain currency
POW coin
meme coin
payment coins
By combining other methods with the previous paragraph to calculate the upper limit of the market value of this category, many projects can be screened out. Of course, the screened out projects are not guaranteed to have 100 times the currency, it can only mean that they may have opportunities, and then you still need to do more homework to evaluate the project. business model, token economic model, team behind it, technology development and marketing capabilities, etc.
The above method is to filter from categories that are known to have demand and scale. This method will make us miss potential track categories that are still under development, but there are too many potential tracks. How to choose? In addition to staying in touch with the latest information, you can also refer to the important remarks of celebrities in the currency circle. For example, the founder of Ethereum, V God, said that the next three major innovation directions of Ethereum are: Layer 2, AA wallet, privacy, etc. Three potential tracks.
Or what CZ, the founder of the leading exchange Binance, said: DeFi is the future, and its current trading volume is equivalent to 5% to 10% of CeFi’s trading volume... The next bull market is likely to make DeFi surpass CeFi in scale. It also pointed out that the entire DeFi may be the focus of the next bull market. If you don’t want to miss out on the next potential track, stay in touch with the latest news.
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We can’t say for sure whether the Bitcoin halving will bring back a bull market, but if it does we definitely don’t want to miss it
It has been more than fourteen years since the birth of Bitcoin. The first three Bitcoin halvings were accompanied by multiple increases. The fourth Bitcoin halving coming in April next year will also be worth looking forward to. The future is impossible to predict, but we can sort out a few key points:
If there is a narrative in the currency circle that can bring in a large amount of new capital, coupled with the cooperation of the macro environment, coupled with the reduction in supply and topics brought about by the Bitcoin halving, we can still look forward to the next round of bull market.
Later, we will bring you analysis of leading projects on other tracks. If you are interested, please click follow. I will also compile some cutting-edge information inquiries and project reviews from time to time, and welcome like-minded people in the currency circle to explore together. If you have any questions, please comment or send a private message
