A series of recently released data has paved the way for a 'soft landing' for the U.S. economy, and with only 2 weeks left before the U.S. election, the market is pricing in the prospects of a Trump victory, leading to a generally bullish global financial market. Last week, the Dow rose 0.96%, the S&P 500 gained 0.85%, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.80%, with all three major U.S. indexes rising for the sixth consecutive week, during which the S&P and Dow set records for the longest weekly winning streaks this year.

The crypto market is replicating the historical upward trend that typically begins in late October. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was priced at $68,880, just a step away from the $70,000 mark, with a cumulative rise of 10.41% over the week, while Ethereum was priced at $2,741, with a weekly gain of 11.95%.

In the foreign exchange market, after a continuous rise last Friday, the dollar index fell back but remained above the 103 mark, accumulating a rise of about 0.6% over the week and marking three consecutive weeks of gains; the intensifying U.S. election and expectations for more monetary policy easing have boosted spot gold, which hit historic highs on Thursday and Friday, accumulating a rise of about 2.4% for the week, while silver rose about 7% to near a twelve-year high; the oil market performed poorly last week due to concerns about global demand prospects and the U.S. pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza, with U.S. oil dropping over 8% for the week, ending a two-week rising streak, while Brent crude fell nearly 7%.

The global economy is experiencing unexpected positive news, and market optimism is becoming apparent, but political uncertainty remains as the U.S. election enters a critical phase.

The impact of U.S. economic data on cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin (BTC) continues to manifest, with investors viewing the leading cryptocurrency as a safe-haven tool during times of economic uncertainty.

Therefore, it is essential to prepare for the release of three U.S. macroeconomic data points this week that may affect the volatility of digital assets.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits

Amid concerns about climate-related disasters, unemployment data for October has surged, reaching its highest level since August 2023. This data, which records the number of unemployed individuals for the week ending October 19, will be released on Thursday. It will show the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits last week.

The forecast is for 250,000, and these unemployment figures are expected to be high. Higher-than-expected unemployment data may indicate a weakening job market in the wake of these natural disasters. This may also influence perceptions of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike plans. The Fed has a dual mandate—achieving price stability and full employment. Recently, Fed officials stated that due to cooling inflation, they will prioritize the labor market.

Thus, higher claims for unemployment benefits may rekindle hopes for larger rate cuts, which could support BTC. On the other hand, lower-than-expected claims may indicate that the economy is strengthening. This would boost investor confidence and potentially increase demand for risk assets like BTC.

U.S. Manufacturing PMI

This data will be released on Thursday, October 24, providing insights into the health of the manufacturing sector. As an interest-rate-sensitive industry, manufacturing may benefit from the easing cycle. It is predicted that manufacturing will recover, driving the earnings growth of the S&P 500 index through 2025.

The last reading was 47.3, and the manufacturing PMI is expected to rise slightly to 47.5. However, any value below 50 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector, suggesting a bleak outlook. The index has been in negative territory for 22 out of the past 23 months, indicating a longer negative trend than during the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

A PMI reading above 50 will indicate that manufacturing is in an expansion phase, which could be interpreted as favorable for the overall economy. This may increase interest in cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation.

U.S. Services PMI

Similar to the manufacturing PMI, it will provide insights into the health of the services sector. The services PMI is expected to decline slightly to 55, down from 55.2.

Given the increasingly close relationship between cryptocurrencies and macroeconomic trends, investors will closely monitor these economic indicators for clues about future price movements. Positive results in unemployment claims and PMI data may lift sentiment and drive BTC and other digital assets further upward.

All of the aforementioned macro reports will be released on the same day, potentially bringing more volatility.