April 24 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report
NASDAQ surges, ETF net inflows; focus on core assets
I. Core Views
1-Recently, I have been thinking that this round of crypto bull market is likely to be like the US stock market; if it is based on this judgment, then we need to make some key adjustments in asset allocation, otherwise the subsequent returns are likely to be lower than expected;
2-The medium- and short-term views remain unchanged, and the probability of a sharp drop is reduced; but there is no obvious sign of implied volatility abnormality in the accelerated rise; long gamma players must control each bet position (also discussed in the live broadcast yesterday)
3-Don't touch the cottage targets that do not have advantages without understanding the fundamentals, and focus on the targets we are familiar with
II. Option block trading positions
BTC has 2 relatively large positions
sell BTC-31MAY24-80000-C
buy BTC-26APR24-80000-C
ETH has 1 doomsday round 16,000 put option position
buy ETH-26APR24-3100-P
Sol has 2 large positions
buy SOL_USDC-25APR24-140-P
750
III. Copycat options
Through the option insight of @Coincall_Global yesterday, we can come up with several deep-diving targets that are also bullish from the perspective of implied volatility, and continue to hold rolling positions
IV. Macro capital market
The gold price premium caused by geopolitical conflicts has gradually faded from the market, and the recent decline has continued.
There are still a few days before the April meeting. According to the statistics of the sell-side research report, my country's fiscal policy in the first quarter was significantly lower than in the past few years. Now that the second quarter has passed for one month, whether the fiscal actions to stimulate the economy such as special bonds and special treasury bonds can be accelerated will also affect it.
The tone of the meeting can be seen. With the fiscal policy being stepped up, the GDP in the first quarter has exceeded expectations due to the improvement in exports and other aspects. If the second quarter can continue, the public's confidence in the economy will gradually break away from the negative spiral of real estate.
This is also one of the core reasons for some option call positions. By the time everyone realizes it, the market is likely to perform quickly, and that will be the time to cash in the 2024 level.
