May 6 Crypto Options Market Volatility Research Report
Rebound or Reversal? Can ETH and Altcoins Short Volatility?
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I. Core Views
1- The bull market is not over, continue to hold options + spot long positions; but it does not affect the purchase of some put protection or square option products
2- BTC implied volatility remains at a low level this year, and is still at the 75th percentile compared with the level of the past year, which can only be used as a reference
3- ETH near-end implied volatility has increased, and it is suitable for some covered short volatility strategies in the short term
4- The implied volatility of cottage options still has many advantages over BTC and ETH, and is suitable for the layout of some optimistic short volatility positions; long volatility subjective judgment is suitable for light position layout
II. Option block trading
BTC has a short-term bullish position, not large (50 BTC)
buy BTC-7MAY24-66000-C
ETH has 2 bullish call options with nearly 2,000 positions
buy ETH-8MAY24-3125-C
buy ETH-10MAY24-3150-C
Sol is expected to continue to be strong
Positions updated to the planet
3. Other altcoins
TG group prompted Doge strategy
The private class group detailed the logic of opening positions and the fundamentals of several altcoins: Sol, Ton, Doge, etc.
4. Macro market information
① US economic data was significantly lower than expected. Including the latest US non-farm payrolls data, and the unemployment rate hit the worst in the past 6 months, and the latest US manufacturing PMI data fell below the 50 prosperity line.
② The latest Fed interest rate meeting was passively dovish due to economic pressure. Powell clearly released a signal that he would not raise interest rates again, and the overseas market's expectations for the first interest rate cut for the US dollar were readjusted to September.
③ The Japanese yen has intervened significantly many times, and the Fed is dovish. The US dollar index has fallen sharply, and the RMB has accelerated its appreciation to 7.19. Moreover, the appreciation of the RMB is different from the active intervention of the Japanese yen, which has started in mid-April.
④ The domestic economic meeting was held, and subjectively believed to be beyond expectations. There are several key points in this meeting:
Real Estate
The detailed deployment of digesting the existing real estate was mentioned, including old-for-new, government storage, China's two housing, etc. The real estate cloud that shook domestic confidence is expected to dissipate faster.
Stabilizing the economy
Special government bonds and special bonds were mentioned to be implemented as soon as possible. Previously, it was discussed that the first quarter was 30% slower than the same period last year. At the same time, in terms of monetary policy, policies such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates were directly mentioned.If both fiscal and monetary policies are implemented, the second quarter will be more worth looking forward to.