Bitcoin plummeted last night, with nearly 300,000 people getting liquidated. In yesterday's video, I already mentioned a method for initial stabilization. I also mentioned that if it could drop below 100,000, one could enter the market with spot purchases in batches. Some friends said it was impossible to fall below 100,000, but it indeed hit a low of 98,802. I have been warning against opening contracts since the day before yesterday and pointed out the funding rate issue. Those who got liquidated must be feeling terrible, and those holding positions are under more stress. Later, I will share how I generally handle being stuck in contracts. Note that this video is only my personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. Please follow me and feel free to share with your friends. Let me know if you share it, and you can join the fan group. #市场调整後的机会?
This drop is mainly due to two pieces of information: first, the Federal Reserve's lack of support on the expected number and extent of interest rate cuts next year, which has caused a crash in US stocks and subsequently a drop in BTC. Secondly, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the Fed is not allowed to hold BTC and has no intention of seeking a change in the law. I believe these two issues are temporary and not really black swan events; the market will slowly digest these two negatives.
First, a conclusion, followed by technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: it has continuously plummeted to the position of 98,802 and then rebounded. Currently, the panic situation has been temporarily contained. Since this round of decline is mainly affected by news, it is expected to consolidate around 101,000 in the short term. If one could buy below 100,000 yesterday, it might be a good time to sell some as it rises. If it drops below 98,000, one can continue to add small amounts in spot purchases, continuing to buy until 80,000. Please avoid trading contracts.
Regarding BNB: it has dropped to 670, following the trend, but the rebound is strong. In the short term, it is stronger than BTC, with a short-term forecast of fluctuating around 700. Continuous quantitative trading is very comfortable.
Regarding ETH: it fell to a low of 3,542, not breaking the previous low of 3,509, but the rebound is weak, weaker than BTC. Today's funding rate has decreased significantly, so be cautious; if it drops further, it will still be weak.
Regarding the token, I have mentioned many times that as long as Old Ma doesn't shout, it is worthless, but I really don't know when he will shout.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the K-line analysis, there have been two consecutive days of significant declines, but fortunately, the 4-hour line has had two consecutive bullish candles, which are relatively strong. The daily line is just a little off from breaking down. Currently, the daily line is still considered within an upward channel. The volume during these two days of significant decline is not high, and the main trend should still be consolidation within the channel.
2. Greed and Fear Index observation: Currently at 75, which is greedy, down by 6 from yesterday, a good sign as it returns to a relatively safe area in the bull market. This range has accounted for nearly 57% over the past year in the bull market.
3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0076%, and for ETH, it is 0.072%. BTC is similar to yesterday, but ETH has dropped a lot, with many more short positions. There's still some danger here.
4. Observing the maximum pain point of options for the next three months: for the next three days, it will be between 101,000 and 102,000, quite close to the current price level, and December 27 is approaching, so let's see how strong the market makers are this time.
5. On December 18, in the spot ETF, institutions increased their holdings by 2,567 BTC and 642 ETH. Although this is a noticeable decline, it is still positive, indicating that institutional investors are not overly frightened and continue to buy.
6. From the RSI (Relative Strength Index), it remains the same as yesterday. BTC is currently in the overbought range on a weekly basis, returning to neutral in 24 hours. ETH has also returned to neutral in the weekly dimension, with selling pressure further reduced.
7. From the escape peak index, it is currently at a middle position, and the danger of escaping the peak is at a moderate level.
8. The BTC holding index has currently fallen to 1.54, making it not worth holding BTC.
Overall judgment: After this round of decline, BTC will continue to consolidate at high levels; the bull market is still there. A further drop would be a great buying opportunity. There are still some potential risks towards the end of the month, and some opportunities will gradually emerge from mid to late January. It is not suitable to touch contracts at this price level. If I am about to be liquidated, I will hedge. Opening a hedge with the same amount is meaningless, similar to directly closing the position. After hedging, one can make small profits within the hedging range. After getting out of the position, please avoid trading contracts. Lastly, please like and share, thank you. $BTC $ETH $BNB