More than 300,000 people were liquidated again, and the amount of liquidation exceeded 7 billion. Bitmain led the entire market to plummet for three consecutive days. It was simply a meat grinder. In the first 10 videos, I should have reminded countless times of the pitfalls on December 27, and also reminded not to open contracts, reminded that it is not suitable to hoard coins, and reminded of Goubi. Those who listened should be fine. So where is the bottom next? When will it be safer? I will review it myself, and those who are interested can listen. Please note that this video is only a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice.
There are several reasons for this sharp drop. The Federal Reserve said that it is not allowed to hold BTC and has no intention of seeking to change the law. Then there is a large amount of profit taking that needs to be settled in the early stage, and it is not ruled out that big dealers will target small investors. Finally, there is the biggest pain point at the end of December that prevents the stock from rising.
Is this round of decline deep? Not bad. The last correction was from 73777 to 49000, which was a scary range. Now it has only corrected 12%. As for you saying that the copycat collapsed, it also collapsed last time.
Let me first state the conclusion, followed by a technical analysis:
Regarding BitBi: It has fallen to around 95,000 and there is no sign of stabilization. It is not suitable to open orders during the sharp rise and fall. It is okay to buy some spot goods on dips. I said in previous videos that it might reach 80,000-85,000, and many people did not believe it. But it does not matter, I will review the market myself anyway.
Regarding Bi'anbi: It has fallen to around 640, a 21% retracement, which is still quite strong. After all, it is considered mainstream. It is very comfortable to do spot quantitative trading. You will make money when it goes back up.
On the Thai side: the lowest point fell to around 3250, which is very weak. After going up this time, I think I have to adjust my strategy. Fortunately, there are institutional ETFs buying, otherwise there would be no bottom line. Anyway, there are many institutions holding on and making up for it as it falls.
Regarding Goubi: I don’t want to review this. Although I have observed it, this thing is definitely a pseudo-mainstream copycat. It is better to buy Tesla stocks than to buy it. After all, Ma has many coins to promote now, and he can’t always support one.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. Judging from the K-line of BitBi, it has fallen sharply for three consecutive days. The four-hour line did not close with a positive line today. If the daily line closes with a negative line tonight, it will fall for three consecutive days. It has not stood firm. It is not appropriate to be bullish or bearish. It is not suitable to open an order during a sharp rise or fall. If you have spot goods in hand, just watch the show. You still have bullets. It will fall one by one. Don't think it is impossible to fall by more than 20%.
2. Greed and Fear Index Observation: Currently 74, which belongs to greed, and 1 less than yesterday, which at least proves that everyone believes that the bull market is still there.
3. The funding rate of the BitBi perpetual contract is 0.0046%, and that of the Thai side is 0.073%. BitBi has fallen compared to yesterday, while the Thai side is similar to yesterday. Short orders continue to increase. Many people may think that many people are starting to be bullish at this time, but in fact, it is not stable yet.
4. The biggest pain point of options will be observed in the next three months: the price will be between 96,000 and 100,000 in the next three days, which is getting closer and closer to December 27. This trend is actually very reasonable and confirms the reasons for the decline.
5. Spot ETFS On December 18, 6,706 units were outflowed from Bitfinex, and BlackRock did not have any outflow. 16,200 units were outflowed from Thailand, which is an obvious decline. It is normal to decline in panic, and the amount of selling is not exaggerated.
6. Judging from the RSI relative strength index, Bitmain has fallen into the strong range in a week and returned to neutral in 24 hours. Taifang has returned to neutral in a week and entered a weak zone in 24 hours. The selling pressure has been greatly reduced.
7. Judging from the top escape index, it is currently in the middle position and the risk of top escape is at a medium level.
8. The BitCoin Hoarding Index has now fallen back to 1.44. It is still not cost-effective to hoard coins. If it falls further, you can build small spot positions in multiple batches.
Overall judgment: Bitbi and the market have not stood firm. If it has been washed out now, it can only prove that the risk control ability is not good. It is not the time when opportunities outweigh risks. It can only be said that opportunities and risks are relatively equal. If you still have bullets in your position, if it is spot, if it is mainstream, then don't panic at all, it will go back. If you have been liquidated many times, you must review it again and figure out the logic before you talk about it. #比特币市场波动观察