In the past few days, BTC has been continuously breaking new highs, and Ethereum has also been breaking new highs. The overall market is steadily moving upwards, with ETH and XRP performing relatively strong, while other mainstream coins and large altcoins are generally being drained. We need to wait for BTC to stabilize and consolidate before funds will flow into other mainstream coins and large altcoins. However, BTC has not seen significant volume increase during its rise. Currently, the trend still has the potential to continue rising, and it cannot be ruled out that it could hover around 110,000 in the short term. A friend asked me where the top is today. Actually, that is not important; what matters is whether the risk or opportunity is greater at a certain position, and just manage your positions accordingly. Many large investors and experts still cannot escape the top. In this issue, I will briefly talk about my position control thoughts.

Let's start with the conclusion, followed by news and technical analysis:

Regarding BTC: It is expected to consolidate around 105000, with a steady trend of continuously breaking new highs. Unfortunately, there is no volume. If there is no substantial volume to push it up significantly, it will only rely on draining liquidity to lift the price. Be cautious of a pullback; slight rises and sideways movements are quite similar, both testing the market. In a bull market, do not call a top, and when feeling bearish, do not short. At this time, the upper points are testing and breaking through major integer points one by one. Each breakthrough will lead to a pullback to solidify. So, there is no need to rush; you should accumulate during the pullbacks and not chase the rise, as there are always guards at the mountain top, which is always comfortable.

Regarding BNB: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 700-740. I am so moved that they actually issued two loyalty rewards consecutively, DOLDER Phase 4 and Phase 5. In a bull market, many projects will be launched, and good projects will definitely be prioritized on secure platforms with strict screening. With these airdrops maintaining support, BNB will have actual backing. This is super suitable for quantitative trading; when the airdrop comes, stop the quantitative trading and participate in the airdrop.

Regarding ETH: It is expected to consolidate around 4000, gradually moving upwards. If you have been following my reviews and invested regularly, you would definitely have made a profit. Just look at how strong it has been today; BTC can't even pull it down. Institutions are continuously increasing their positions in the short term, with a target of 4800 above. As the saying goes, a clear target, actual actions from institutions showing confidence, and being the long-time second place, it is indeed worth looking forward to. If you feel chasing BTC is too high, you might consider this one.

Next is the technical analysis:

1. From the candlestick chart, BTC has maintained a 7 consecutive 4-hour average at 107246, and the daily line continues to rise. Essentially, all moving averages are trending upwards, with low trading volume. The volume looks like it is replacing consolidation with slight rises. The next key point is at 110,000 USD, which may break and then pull back. Then it will slowly climb towards the next major integer point.

2. Greed and Fear Index observation: Currently at 87, extreme greed, which is a dangerous signal. The extreme greed zone cannot last long in a bull market; it will inevitably pull back to the greed zone. In fact, I prefer the greed zone.

3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0099%, and for ETH, it is 0.0112%. Both have slightly decreased compared to yesterday, which is a normal level, and neither bulls nor bears have a clear advantage, indirectly proving that a slight rise is replacing consolidation.

4. The maximum pain point for options will be observed over the next three months: In the next three days, it will be between 101000-106000. At this position, it seems that market makers do not want to open call options. If it continues to rise like this, many market makers will be in trouble by December 27. The options contract open interest ratio has reached 61.87%, and I am very concerned that the hedging actions will pull the coin value back sharply. So, it is essential to control your positions well.

5. The ETF will be closed on December 16, with BTC institutions increasing their holdings by 6102 coins and ETH increasing by 12,900 coins. The enthusiasm is high, continuously solidifying new prices. These will form the basic foundation for a long bull market.

6. From the RSI (Relative Strength Index), it remains the same as yesterday. BTC is currently in the overbought zone on a weekly scale, and in the 24-hour window, it has changed from strong to overbought, becoming even more overheated, with high selling pressure. ETH is strong on a weekly scale, still strong in the 24-hour window, with selling pressure relatively lower than BTC, posing slightly lower risk.

7. From the top escape index, it is currently at a middle position, with escape danger at a moderate level.

8. The BTC hoarding index is currently high, with a value of 1.72, and it is increasing, making hoarding obviously not worthwhile.

Overall judgment: BTC has broken new highs, try not to chase high, and do not short. Wait for a pullback to enter, and remember not to open contracts. The position control strategy mentioned at the beginning simply means never being fully invested, never being short. When the risk is high, positions must be reduced, and do not go all in. When opportunities arise, gradually increase your positions.