BTC broke a new high again today. It seems I was right about two things yesterday: the new high and that after breaking the new high, it wouldn't deviate much, focusing mainly on solidifying and consolidating. Most major coins are also experiencing slight fluctuations. This kind of market is the most annoying, as it is hard to operate—positions are high and trading volumes are low. Whether altcoins will rotate is uncertain, with both bulls and bears in contention. Let's analyze the likely upcoming trends; this article is just my personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. Please follow for updates; the video is usually kept for 24 hours, and you can also watch on Xiaohongshu and other platforms where past videos are available.
Let’s start with the conclusion, followed by news and technical analysis:
BTC: Today, this new high was broken, but it doesn't look good. I predict it will consolidate around 104,000, so as predicted yesterday, there was no big upward movement. This is also related to the lack of clear points above, but overall the candlestick pattern is still quite strong, and the bullish trend remains unchanged. Without a breakthrough in trading volume, we need to be cautious as there may be a need to retest. The probability of a short-term rapid rise is low. This level is still not suitable for opening futures or accumulating coins. If it drops below 100,000, it could be an opportunity to gradually pick up cheaper coins, and in the short term, it could continue to pick up to 90,000.
Regarding BNB: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 700-740. Tonight, the 62nd airdrop of VANA is going live, and many friends tend to sell as soon as it is listed, converting to BNB, which is also a strategy. Therefore, today BNB is relatively stable. When BTC rallies, BNB usually performs weakly, so it is more suitable for spot quantification.
ETH: It is expected to consolidate around 4,000. Today it performed relatively strong, especially during the time BTC just broke its new high. As long as BTC doesn't drop significantly tonight, ETH may reach new heights. If you've been following my reviews, you should have gradually held onto some low-priced assets.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the candlestick analysis, BTC has maintained an average of 104,000 for seven consecutive 4-hour candlesticks, and the daily line continues to rise. Breaking a new high is a good thing, but unfortunately, the trading volume hasn't increased. It seems to be a slow and steady breakthrough. Although various moving averages are rising, a low-volume peak is also a dangerous signal.
2. Greed and Fear Index: Currently at 83, indicating extreme greed, which is also a dangerous signal.
3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0115%, and for ETH it is 0.0123%, both significantly higher than yesterday. Long positions are increasing. As long as there aren't any major players appearing that could lead to targeted liquidation, it should remain focused on high-level consolidation. This is a time to be cautious about sudden drops in funding rates for those with heavy positions.
4. Observing the maximum pain point of options in the next three months: For the next three days, it will be between 104,000-105,000, with very low trading volume, not having a large impact on prices, mainly focusing on the maximum pain point of 80,000 USD on December 27.
5. ETFS are closed on Sunday, and tonight can continue to observe. It is estimated that inflows should be maintained, as the weekend news is mainly positive.
6. According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), it remains the same as yesterday. BTC is currently in the overbought range on a weekly basis, and strong on a 24-hour basis, somewhat overheated, with selling pressure being relatively high. ETH is strong on a weekly basis and still strong on a 24-hour basis, with short-term selling pressure still lower than BTC.
7. From the peak escape index, it is currently in the middle position, and the risk of escaping the peak is at a moderate level.
8. The accumulation index for B coins is currently high, with a value of 1.68, making it extremely unsuitable for regular investment or accumulation.
Overall judgment: BTC has broken a new high, and without trading volume, chasing high is dangerous. Be wary of a pullback that could crash altcoins; currently, it is only suitable for buying on dips, and not for opening contracts.