The official revised data of BLS was finally released, with a revised data of -818,000 people and a revision of -0.5%.
The published data was not as exaggerated as the originally expected data of 1 million, and the revision did not reach 0.6%, but it was also the largest revised data since 2009.
The data showed that the US labor market from last year to now may not be as strong as previously imagined, and it will also appropriately increase the market's consideration of the risk of a rapid decline in the labor force under high interest rates. With the support of the data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has increased slightly, which has once again consolidated the probability of a rate cut in September.
At the same time, as I said before, the revised previous data has made the overall fluctuation from March last year to now relatively smooth, which can also prepare for the cooling of the labor force in the future, and also prepare for the "defensive" rate cut in September.
At the same time, continuing with the topic above, the downward adjustment of 818,000 people means an average monthly correction of 68,167 people. Let's see if the revised employment data chart will be smoother than before. If the previous value is not revised, the recent employment data may be interpreted as an accelerated recession.
Picture: Blue is the original data, and red is the revised data after a monthly decrease of 68,167 people.
