The latest CME swap rate shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September remains above 50%, but it should be noted that a 50 basis point rate cut has soared to 41% again.
Although a 25 basis point rate cut is currently the main expectation, the market has not given up the game of a 50 basis point rate cut.
At present, the expectation for this rate cut is still controversial. Last week's employment data caused great controversy among US traders and economists on the extent of the rate cut.
Although the subjective expectation of 25 has been maintained for a long time this week, today Friday, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has soared again, which has once again cast a veil of mystery over next week's interest rate meeting.
This weekend, until the time of the interest rate meeting next week, economic data, as well as the speeches of many economists and traders, may cause the market to have a chaotic mode of expectations.
Will the Fed keep the market expecting a rate cut in the mixed round? Or adjust expectations in advance before making interest rate decisions?
As a "master of expectation management", I don't think he should make the market so chaotic, right?
