#BTC#ETHmarket analysis: Is it a reversal? Or a rebound?
Last night, the U.S. stock market was in a heart-pounding mood. It once triggered the circuit breaker mechanism before the market opened. After the market opened, with the improvement of some economic data, the sentiment began to reverse but did not really trigger the circuit breaker mechanism.
This was followed by an increase in buying in the ETF market. Although it was accompanied by higher trading volumes, BTC rebounded in the short term.
The market is very stable during the Asian session. The most concerned question is whether the current market is starting to reverse the decline and rise all the way, or is it a short-term rebound?
Here I have drawn the daily and weekly oscillation ranges on the BTC and ETH markets. I do not intend to use complicated lines to predict future trends. I think what we need to focus on now is how prices return to a safe range.
BTC
The oscillation ranges of the daily and weekly lines are basically the same, except that the lower line of the weekly line is slightly lower at around 55,500, while the lower line of the daily line is around 56,000.
Last night, the price rebounded back to the weekly range, but it did not stabilize and fall below it during the day, so the risk probability of price decline is still relatively high.
If the price can rebound and break through the yellow line of 56,000 and stand firm, it proves that the price has returned to the weekly and daily oscillation track, then the risk of short-term price decline will be greatly reduced. At the same time, if the price continues to rebound after standing firm, we can be more optimistic about returning to around 64,000.
However, in the rebound after stabilizing, we still need to pay attention to the breakthrough resistance at the hourly level. Often the rebound and decline of the daily and weekly lines need to go through a certain period without the influence of external factors, and it does not happen overnight.
Until it breaks through 64,000 and stabilizes, the period can be regarded as a rebound rather than a reversal of the rise. The mid-line pressure of the daily line has always been a key point. The last time BTC fell below 60,000, it ran on the lower track of the daily line for 31 days. The price has been unable to break through the resistance of the daily mid-line, and because the moving average has moved down, the overall market has fluctuated and maintained a downward trend.
RSI: Index is 31, which has triggered an oversold rebound, but the market gain is weak and bullish sentiment is still insufficient.
ETH：
Referring to the theory of BTC, the current breakthrough and stabilization points are 2530/2580
RSI: Index is 23. It is still in a state of oversold rebound, and the bullish sentiment is also weak, and the rebound lacks strength.
Summarize:
The reason for marking the operating range is that I hope everyone understands that the current rebound is very different from the rebound after returning to the price range. The risk of falling after the current rebound is still relatively large. On the contrary, the risk of falling after returning to the range becomes smaller.
At the same time, even if the price returns to the range and the core daily mid-line is not broken, there is still a risk of continuing to fall. The biggest difference from now is that now it continues to fall directly, and if it rebounds to the daily mid-line position and falls, it is regarded as a volatile decline.
Although the two directions are consistent, due to the different cycles, many people may mistakenly believe that the market has reversed.
Of course, the above theory only exists when external factors are eliminated. If there are external positive or negative stimuli, the range can still be used as a reference, but the running trajectory may accelerate.
At present, the only thing that can bring positive sentiment is the expectation of interest rate cuts. Unfortunately, due to the risk of recession, interest rate cuts have been directly ignored. For prices to rebound and reverse, the market still needs to provide greater liquidity and purchasing power.
I hope that the U.S. stock market can bring prices back to the daily range tonight. This is my only wish for now.
#BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 $BTC