Adjust the interpretation of the dot plot in the early morning. The spirit is indeed poor in the early morning, and the expression is somewhat inaccurate.
In the dot plot in the early morning, many FOMC votes believe that there is still an expectation of a 50-point rate cut in the rest of 2024.
According to the current plan, there is a possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in November and December.
The current market situation is basically in line with the expectations written last night. The rate cut is 50 basis points, there is a decline, and then it stabilizes. However, I think the current market reaction is not over yet. The market is still in an optimistic attitude at the beginning of a 50 basis point rate cut.
But how to go after that depends on the situation next Monday.
The start of the rate cut cycle brings more positive emotional attitudes, but in fact, the liquidity that many people are concerned about has increased significantly. It is still not optimistic enough at present and needs to wait.