Regarding this matter, it is Americans themselves who should understand American politicians!
Eric from Bloomberg provided a very good perspective on Biden's announcement of withdrawal from the nomination, which also confirmed my personal opinion.
On July 18, US time/July 19, background time, it was reported that Biden decided to withdraw from the nomination and would publicly announce it this weekend. He also said that withdrawing from the nomination does not mean giving up his current presidential status, and made it clear that he does not support Harris.
Eric said that as a professional politician, he believed that Biden would still be nominated again because it was impossible for professional politicians to give up their rights.
This is consistent with my point of view. In fact, American politicians have made full use of various "tactics" that we are familiar with.
1. Biden took the initiative to withdraw from the election at the current stage when Trump's support is the highest, and released the news that he is sick. Although it is stupid to blame Trump, it also conforms to the political correctness of the Democratic Party. Secondly, using weakness to win sympathy will help to restore his current support rate.
2. Trump has repeatedly released his vision for the future of encryption, and his subordinates have repeatedly mentioned that they will not let another major country seize control. This is basically using the "catfish effect", which will force some wavering voters to support Trump.
3. Personally, I think that if Biden announces his withdrawal from the nomination this week, he will observe the support rate afterwards. Once there are signs that the trend is pointing to Biden and he uses his weak image to attract more supporters, then someone will inevitably nominate Biden again at the right opportunity. Moreover, he is only withdrawing from the nomination, not really announcing that he will not participate in this election.
4. For Biden and Trump, this is the last term they must fight for. Biden may barely survive this term due to his age and health. If he misses, there is basically no hope for the next term. Although Trump is in good health, if he is elected in this term, it will be his last term (because each president can only serve two terms at most). Secondly, if he fails this time, the next term will be a mess. Even if Trump is given a chance, he will feel that he can't save the situation.
Eric from Bloomberg himself said that July 2024 might be the only month with more political drama that he would see in his lifetime. Although Trump's approval rating is currently the highest and the market is already trading on Trump's positives, we still need to pay attention to the "reversal" before the final election. The events this month are already very continuous, and there is no ruling out that there will be more drama. Please be patient and watch the show.
