Key economic data and events to focus on today: December 18, 2024, Wednesday

① Domestic refined oil price adjustment window to be determined;
② 15:00 UK November CPI month-on-month;
③ 15:00 UK November Retail Price Index month-on-month;
④ 18:00 Eurozone November CPI year-on-year final value, CPI month-on-month final value;
⑤ 19:00 UK December CBI Industrial Order Balance;
⑥ 21:30 US November Housing Starts annualized, Q3 Current Account, November Building Permits total;
⑦ 23:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending December 13, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Inventory, EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory;
⑧ Next day 03:00 Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision and economic projections summary;
⑨ Next day 03:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a press conference.

#CPI数据 #市场全线看牛？ #USUAL现货开盘预测 #PENGU开盘

At 3 AM tonight, the CPI interest rate meeting will take place. According to predictions, currently 97.1% believe there will be a 25 basis point rate cut, with the current interest rate at 4.75%, lowering to 4.5%.

This rate cut is positive for the crypto market, but everyone has already traded this positive news in advance and is predicting a pause in rate cuts in January, so there may also be early trading based on the January forecast. Of course, the actual results are yet to come, and we should rely on the actual outcomes.

In the market, besides Bitcoin reaching new highs, only a few popular coins have seen capital inflow to drive prices up; most altcoins are struggling to survive, making it very difficult to trade. I don't know when this situation will improve. #CPI数据

Last night's US inflation data CPI met expectations, slightly positive

Note: Data below expectations is positive, above is negative. ​​​
#CPI数据

#美降息25个基点预期升温 #CPI数据 December 12, 2024, good morning brothers. Yesterday afternoon, before the CPI came out, the market rose to 9.7-9.8 and then consolidated. The announced CPI data met expectations. No change is the biggest positive. Yesterday, Microstrategy and US stocks also surged, and Nvidia rose back to around 140. Most altcoins rose by 10%-20%. The market broke through 100k, but was suppressed at the previous resistance level of 102k. Today, we will see if it can stabilize at 101.5k, which would mean there is a possibility of testing the previous high this week.

Currently, there is some profit-taking and selling in the Asian session in the K-line, and the market is slightly down. However, the upward trend has not been broken, and we should focus on the 98k level, which is a weak support. This is the first position to consider going long during the day. If it falls below 98k, it may enter a bearish trend.
🈲🈲🈲 Important reminder about the interest rate cut news on December 18, which is likely to drop from 4.75 to 4.5, also a positive, but there is still a week before this positive comes into effect, so be wary of manipulation by the market makers!!!!!!!
In addition, BTC is the most suitable cryptocurrency for contracts, with medium to low leverage contracts; in a bull market, do not blindly short. Don't fall into the logic of shorting every time there is an increase. Most of those trapped in the market are short positions. When going long, strictly control your position and set stop-losses; if you encounter sudden spikes, just take the loss.
As for spot trading, I do not recommend buying BTC, as the possibility of doubling is low. I personally hold 10% in BTC contracts, and the rest is in altcoin spot. Below are analyses of several held coins. This is my personal opinion; feel free to discuss in the comments.

Tonight's CPI data, there are still half an hour until release, should we avoid a spike?

Place an order, try a light position. Short Bitcoin at 99688, stop loss at 100488, take profit at 93800

Next, let's wait together. #CPI数据

Important economic data will be released this Wednesday and Thursday. Given the current overall environment in the cryptocurrency space, it is only significant in the short term, because a casual positive news from Trump and other pro-crypto figures is more important than this data!
Considering last Friday's non-farm payrolls, I personally believe that this week's CPI and PPI will not be very optimistic, but it will only be limited to not very optimistic. I expect it will not have too much impact on the market, after all, everyone knows whose face we need to watch now. The market expectation for the second half of the year has reached 100,000, which is all good. I won't say much more, saying too much may affect you. Personally, I will be a bit more cautious. I believe making less profit is better than losing money, OK! #CPI数据

Analysis of the Latest Unemployment Rate in the United States

According to a report from the U.S. Department of Labor on December 6, 2024, the unemployment rate in the U.S. for November was 4.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first increase since August, with the number of unemployed reaching 7.1 million. Despite a significant rebound in non-farm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs in November compared to the previous month, the labor market overall continues to trend towards cooling.

Analysis of Future Economic Trends in the United States

- Optimistic Factors:
- Consumer Spending Support: Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity. Despite high inflation, the consumer market in the U.S. remains robust, playing a key role in supporting the economy.
- Economic Growth Expectations: Federal Reserve's Williams predicts that the U.S. GDP will reach 2.5% or higher this year, and the OECD anticipates that economic growth in the U.S. will be 2.1% in 2024, both indicating that the U.S. economy has some growth momentum.
- Rate Cut Expectations: After the release of the non-farm payroll report, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's “FedWatch” tool indicated an 88.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. Rate cut expectations are beneficial for lowering corporate financing costs and stimulating economic growth.
- Risk Factors:
- Stubborn Inflation: In October, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose by 2.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to September. Fitch recently raised its inflation expectations for the U.S., predicting that inflation will reach 2.8% by the end of 2025. High inflation may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates, suppressing economic growth.
- Cooling Labor Market: The unemployment rate has risen again after three months, and the “small non-farm” ADP employment data fell short of expectations. The overall labor market is trending towards cooling, which may affect consumer spending and economic growth momentum.
- Policy Uncertainty: The economic policies of the new government following Trump's administration may experience significant shifts. Future economic development may face increased instability and uncertainty, such as potential expansionary fiscal policies and significant tariff increases. While these measures may raise inflation and reduce the risk of a recession in the U.S., they also bring numerous uncertainties.

Summary in One Sentence: The unemployment rate is rising, leading to increased expectations for rate hikes, which will be reflected in the frequency and intensity of rate increases. If the economic outlook is also not optimistic, it may benefit the cryptocurrency market.

Tonight at 21:30, November CPI data will be released
#CPI数据

Whether you're caught in or preparing to buy the dip, listen to the detective's advice

Tonight at 9:30 PM, pay attention to the CPI data!

The market may experience significant fluctuations before and after the data is released; success or failure hinges on this moment.

The market has been correcting sharply these past few days, and we are hoping for a big event to drive it in a positive direction. Regardless of whether the data tonight is good or bad, we must prepare for both scenarios and be ready to respond at any moment.

In terms of altcoins, special attention should be paid to the meme coin sector, as these coins tend to move closely with the market, bouncing back quickly. Examples include pepe, floki, wif, bonk, doge, neiro, bome, and others.

Looking at the external market, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones have both seen declines in recent days.
This may be related to the sanctions on Nvidia.
The US dollar index has recently shown some recovery, possibly because people believe there won't be any further rate cuts after the December reduction.

It is said that the inflation rate in November will rise from 2.6% to 2.7%.
Core CPI is estimated to remain around 3.2% to 3.3%.
If the CPI data increases more than expected, the Federal Reserve might halt its rate cuts earlier than anticipated.
Everyone is guessing that there may not be any rate cuts in January next year.
#热门话题 #CPI数据 #市场调整后的方向

#交易日常 Every decline is also an opportunity I am still heading north The CP will be announced soon As long as it doesn't exceed 2.7 The interest rate cut this month is basically a sure thing During this period until the 19th, it can be speculated again

#CPI数据 #$BTC
$SOL
$DOGE

At the time of writing, $XRP was down 14.24% in the last 24 hours to $1.90, underperforming the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Aside from TRON, which is down over 10%, XRP had the largest losses among the top 10 daily.

$BTC
#XRPGoal #CPI数据 #doge⚡

The evening CPI is about to start, has everyone prepared? Friends #CPI数据

Justin Sun: From Jack Ma's disciple to a cryptocurrency giant, how to get 12 billion in success

There are endless legendary stories in the cryptocurrency circle. Today we will focus on a highly watched figure, Justin Sun, who is nicknamed "Sun Wukong" by the outside world.
Sun Wukong is a representative of the post-90s in the cryptocurrency circle. It took only half a year for him to be on the Forbes rich list. He is Jack Ma's proud disciple and the founder of TRON (TRX). He has fought with Wang Xiaochuan of Sogou and had a war of words with Wang Sicong of Wanda. In addition, he is also known as Jia Yueting in the cryptocurrency circle and the Greater China President of Ripple (XRP), and can be called the "chosen son of heaven".

Justin Sun's resume is varied. He was a top student at Peking University, a disciple of Jack Ma, a leader of post-90s entrepreneurship, and a very controversial figure. His worldview can be divided into success and failure, with no middle ground. This post-90s entrepreneur is extremely persistent and once boasted, "My standard for measuring a person is how much money you make."

During his studies, Justin Sun disagreed with the traditional exam-oriented education. He challenged the education system with practical actions. He only wrote essays in the Chinese language test, answered questions in Chinese in the English test, and filled in the name of the villain as the class teacher in the history test, and filled in his own name as the hero. In high school, he was addicted to reading novels, skipping classes became a common occurrence, and his grades were at the bottom. However, with hard work, he successfully achieved a leap from an ordinary high school student to a liberal arts student at Peking University.
At the end of 2010, Justin Sun graduated from Peking University a year ahead of schedule and went to the University of Pennsylvania to study East Asian Studies. During his study career in the United States, he came into contact with the works of Ms. Ayn Rand and was deeply influenced by her values. He began to believe that entrepreneurs are the driving force for social progress. In order to enter the business world, Justin Sun took courses at the Walton School of Business and joined the Investment Association of the University of Pennsylvania.
Sun Yuchen first heard about Bitcoin on April 11, 2013, when Bitcoin was in the midst of a relatively small but widespread rally. At the time, most people were skeptical of Bitcoin, believing it was just a way to make money. However, Sun Yuchen was attracted by the potential of Bitcoin, and he believed that Bitcoin's anonymity would solve the financial settlement problem of the dark Internet, thereby driving its market value to grow rapidly.So, he invested all his tuition in Bitcoin, and this decision made him gain his first 10 million yuan of wealth.

Sun Yuchen's Bitcoin journey was not smooth. He joined Ripple, an Internet financial company in Silicon Valley in the United States. Ripple is a decentralized payment system, and Sun Yuchen is full of confidence in it. Soon after, he returned to China and founded Ripple Technology, which received a 10 million yuan investment from IDG Capital. He actively promoted Ripple in China and became the chief representative of the project.

In the second half of 2017, Sun Yuchen created TRON, aiming to build a global decentralized free content entertainment system. However, TRON encountered regulatory pressure and had to complete the token issuance ahead of schedule, and faced regulatory pursuit. Despite this, Sun Yuchen successfully promoted TRON to the international market, and its market value once reached 90 billion yuan. During the continuous rise of TRON, Sun Yuchen cashed out millions of TRON and gained about 12 billion yuan of wealth.

Sun Yuchen's career is full of entrepreneurial spirit and adventurous spirit. He dares to challenge traditional concepts and actively explores new fields, which makes him a highly watched figure in the currency circle. His experience also reflects the opportunities and challenges in the field of blockchain and cryptocurrency, providing inspiration and reference for young entrepreneurs.

Although Sun Yuchen's road is not smooth, his story inspires more young people to pursue their dreams, bravely explore unknown areas, find opportunities, and create their own path to success.

#比特币减半 #CPI数据 #大盘走势 #新币挖矿 #非农数据 $BTC $ETH $BNB

Since Trump was elected as the new President of the United States in early November, Bitcoin has soared from about $68,000 to a historic new high of $104,088. When BTC broke through the $100,000 mark last week, Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social: "Congratulations Bitcoin!!! $100,000!!! You're welcome!!!" Clearly attributing the milestone of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 to himself.

According to high-level sources from Trump's transition team, Trump "will be very focused on the price of Bitcoin," and he hopes Bitcoin can reach $150,000 in the early stages of his second presidential term.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $98,000, currently priced at $98,300, with a 0.96% increase in the last 24 hours.
$BTC
#CPI数据

WLD and ARB are my two biggest trapped positions. I wanted to sell them at a high point recently to avoid a possible "Black Christmas".

As a result, Bitcoin fell like this after a shock today. It really deserves to be the type B that trapped me the most🤔

It stands to reason that Christmas is still a long way away, so it shouldn't start to fall so fast now
It is highly likely that tomorrow's #微软比特币投资投票案 #CPI数据 will all be positive. If it falls today, it will be fine. The news will come out tomorrow🛫

21:30, the US November CPI data will be unveiled. With the Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for December 17-18, tonight's CPI data is expected to be a key reference for the Fed's subsequent interest rate decisions and policy path.

The market generally expects that the year-on-year growth rate of the US November CPI may rise from last month's 2.6% to 2.7%, while the month-on-month growth rate may increase from last month's 0.2% to 0.3%; the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, is expected to maintain year-on-year and month-on-month increases at 3.3% and 0.3% respectively, with the year-on-year growth rate exceeding the Fed's 2% target, remaining in the 3.2%-3.3% range for the sixth consecutive month.

Analysts generally believe that if the November CPI data is lower than expected, the probability of a rate cut in December is likely to continue to rise, and the US dollar may continue to face downward pressure. Conversely, data that exceeds expectations may reduce investors' expectations for rate cuts in 2025, thereby boosting the dollar.

Josh Hirt, a senior US economist at Vanguard, believes that the inflation data for November is not expected to show significant changes compared to October. The overall inflation level is still fluctuating in the range of 2.5%-3.0%. The slowdown in inflation growth is partly due to base effects, as the inflation data from the same period last year was weak, and it also reflects upward pressure on prices in areas such as services and housing. The month-on-month growth rate of the core CPI for November is expected to be 0.25%.

The inflation forecasting model from the Cleveland Fed indicates that the overall month-on-month growth rate of inflation in November will be 0.26%, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.7%; the month-on-month growth rate of the core CPI will be 0.27%, and the year-on-year growth rate will be 3.3%, which is basically in line with market expectations.

Mona Mahajan, head of investment strategy at Edward Jones, stated that there is a wait-and-see sentiment in the market before the release of this week's CPI and PPI data, as the market hopes to see data that will not significantly disrupt next week's Federal Reserve decision.

"If you are still underwater, unable to see the overall market situation, and always in a state of loss, leave a message 888, and I will help you get back on shore" #CPI数据 #市场调整后的方向 #币安ME开盘 #市场回调抄底还是观望？