#比特币市场波动观察
When Bitcoin reached the 'Heaven and Earth Needle' on December 5, I expressed that the recent trend would mainly fluctuate between 104000 and 90000. (But I believe it will retrace to 80000)
First, after breaking through 74000, it needs to consolidate and adjust before having a better and healthier upward movement. I do not believe that 108000 is the peak of this round; it may be the temporary peak of the current consolidation range. The support bottom at the weekly level can be seen as the bottom of the consolidation range, but it does not rule out a false breakdown to the 80000 position later on. Personally, I think this horizontal consolidation might take a relatively long time, similar to the previous range (Figure 2).

The Federal Reserve's attitude towards Bitcoin is merely a reason or excuse for the market's decline, after all, there always has to be a reason for the release of chips. Regardless of rising or falling, the market always has two different voices, which is part of the charm of the market.

If the market subsequently rises strongly but cannot break through the previous high, I will be bearish. If the current bottom at 90000 fails, we will look at whether the support at 80000 is strong.

This month, pay close attention to the position at 96660; if the closing is above it, it will be a bullish candle, otherwise, it will be a bearish candle.

#市场调整後的机会？
This round of decline utilizes the Federal Reserve's speech, triggering emotional panic. As long as there is a continuous net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs and a net inflow relationship for ETH spot ETFs, the market trend remains unchanged. Every dip in a bull market is an opportunity to get in; whether you can seize it depends on your emotional management and capital management skills.
If you insist on gambling, then bet on the outcome of the game between Trump + Musk and the Federal Reserve.
ETH's chips have not yet been fully absorbed, so it will continue to experience volatile market conditions. Therefore, the capital efficiency for swing trading will be relatively high. For altcoins, you can consider entering the market at the bottom phase of Ethereum; if you're uncertain, you can try small positions in new coins. For stability, just buy $BNB , which can earn interest while also providing airdrop rewards during new coin issuance.
🏁🏁🏁
As long as you have positions, there are opportunities...
As long as you don't get liquidated, there are opportunities...
As long as your mindset isn't affected by the fluctuations of the candlestick chart, there are opportunities...
Opportunities are always present; what isn't there is your mindset...
$BTC

#加密市场回调
Bitcoin has returned above 99,000, signaling the end of this round of correction (tomorrow's low must not be lower than today's low).
The bullish trend has not fundamentally changed, do not panic, the peak needs to be confirmed.
Trading market rules, make certain trades, leave ample positions to respond to changes, avoid liquidation, and minimize exposure to irrelevant information that interferes with your judgment. I hope you are not among the 1 billion in liquidation data, #圣诞行情预测 bullish recovery in the second half of this month, if it's strong, it can set a new high 😊

#BTC重回关键位置后走势

After breaking through the important emotional barrier of 100,000, Bitcoin quickly dropped to 91,000 for the first time, and then quickly recovered to 102,000. This time, the funding rate was as high as nearly 0.1%, and the altcoins did not follow the decline. After two days of narrow consolidation, it fell to 95,000 again, and regained 100,000 again in two days. After reaching 102,000, it was still blocked. This time, the funding rate was 0.06%. The altcoins followed the decline, and the rebound strength weakened, and most of them did not reach the previous high.

According to the liquidation map, the entire network will have nearly 2.7 billion short positions liquidated near 110,000, and nearly 400 million will be liquidated near 99,000. There is still 10% room for growth when it reaches 110,000. (Figure 1)

Spot ETF, recent funds have been buying, no matter whether the price of Bitcoin rises or falls, they just buy. Very strong funds have kept the price of Bitcoin in the range of 90,000-100,000 (Figure 2)

Personal opinion: If the price breaks through 104,000, then reaches above 110,000, and fails to stand firm, it will be a good position to open a short position. The current price is a big test of psychological pressure for long traders.

There is no market that only rises and never falls. Don't be swayed by emotions. Analyze the market carefully to help you make important decisions for your transactions. There is no 100% winning rate. Don't worry about any factors that can affect your trading emotions. Just be yourself, this is more important than anything else

Bitcoin has been unable to break through 100,000 for a long time, how should we respond? In the past three weeks, #BTC重返10万 has experienced three spikes but was able to turn danger into safety, successfully holding the 90,000 mark. However, the three rebounds have not been able to stabilize above the 100,000 threshold. The article from a few days ago has already analyzed this for everyone; looking at the range fluctuations and sideways consolidation, does it not seem a bit similar to the trends in March?
Do not rush in blindly just because of various positive news. The trading strategy of doing high shorts and low longs within the range remains unchanged. Market movements can sometimes be faster and sometimes slower; this is the norm in the trading market. #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 Although spot ETFs have seen continuous inflows of capital, they still have not been able to hold above the 4,000 mark, with the strategy remaining consistent with Bitcoin.
Additionally, let me add some other factors: the first spike had a funding rate of nearly 0.1%, the second spike was at 0.06%, and since this spike, the funding has remained at 0.01, with no changes at all. $BTC

#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥
#加密市场急跌 The former old Ethereum (minimum 3509), in the early morning collaborated with brother #BTC☀ (minimum 94150) for a deep washout, this drop is greater than the previous two days. Many people in the contract market have been liquidated or stopped out.

The contract market requires certain experience (more than 3 years) to accumulate a certain market feel, and then needs a certain understanding of economics. Moreover, the most important point is (do not get liquidated); once liquidated, you lose your chips, and this game is over for you. This is not the original intention of entering this market.

Look at the weekly chart, look at the weekly chart, look at the weekly chart. Do not be misled by a temporary market situation; the weekly level Bitcoin, three lower shadows, indicates support at this level. The upper 10 is also a recent resistance level. Just trade within the range; I mentioned this in my article a few days ago, high short, low long.
Ethereum, similarly, at the weekly level has support at the 3500 position, accompanied by two long lower shadows, with the upper 4000 points also being a resistance level.
The difference is that the market expectations for Ethereum are higher than for Bitcoin, as it has not surpassed its previous high.

The market is variable; it can change suddenly and with large fluctuations, or it can be slow and with small fluctuations. This is the norm of the market, and it must be accepted and recognized.

Personal opinion: looking bullish for this week

Sharing trading insights:
Observe and look for opportunity points in the higher timeframe
Wait for buy or sell opportunities in the lower timeframe
Sometimes mistakes may occur, missing sales, or getting swept out and then take off, etc., these are all necessary training on the trading path that you need to go through by yourself.
Continuously accumulate experience through trading, gradually start not getting liquidated, moving from losses to profits, from profits to sustained stable profits, and finally, the changes in K-lines will have no impact on your emotions. Congratulations, you have become a high-quality trader $ETH

#山寨季将持续多久？
Before the next cycle begins, if there is no black swan event, when the next Fed QE stops, before the next rate hike cycle begins.
Currently, the copycat stocks are rising, ranging from 50% to 500%. After a wave of rises, it is normal and healthy to have a correction. There is no need to be pessimistic when there is a slight correction. Anyone who knows a little about economics will understand.
Share with you the method of finding 10x coins
🚀1. Long consolidation time, 2 years, 3 years is best
🚀2. RSI indicator diverges at the monthly level + oversold zone
🚀3. MACD crosses underwater
🚀4. Stands on the 50-day moving average, and the 50-day and 100-day moving averages form a golden cross
👀5. As for which sector, follow me and share with you during the live broadcast👀
😍Sharing with you the method of 100x😍:
Hold, hold, hold... This is the only way, there is no other😘

#美财政部称BTC“数字黄金” Even if Bitcoin is hot, it will continue to rise. The bull market will definitely be accompanied by a correction, forming a volatile upward trend.
There is a need for a correction at the weekly level, and the 100,000 integer mark is the emotional psychological mark for most people. The huge amount of heaven and earth needles that appeared on December 5th shows that differences have emerged. Today's opening upward rush failed. From the perspective of the operation idea, use the 4-hour level to see: the direction of the breakthrough after the triangle converges.
Daily level: 91000-104000 range oscillation.
Most technical indicators fail and need time to repair.
Therefore, do not rush to open a position, or try and error with a light position. The idea of ​​high-altitude and low-multiple in the oscillation range. The current price is bearish😘😘😘

There is nothing to think about in the spot market. A 10% correction is not enough. Therefore, you must first hold firmly, which is more important than anything else. Secondly, learn to wait, the wind has not come yet. Why are you in a hurry? #山寨季将持续多久？ Don't move until the next Fed rate hike. With this as the goal, do you think the current price is low? $DYDX

#dydx #加密沙皇 Questions With the emergence of good news, there was a good increase. After reaching the pressure zone of 2.1-2.5, it was blocked. Judging from the relationship between volume and price, the chips sold in the pressure zone were effectively taken over, and the current volume was reduced. My strategy is to hold the spot without any increase or decrease in position.

Can ETH break through the previous high and reach a new historical height?
Technical trend analysis

The 4-hour level is in the rising channel, and the lower track is tested many times, while the middle track is under pressure. This shows that market sentiment is not consistent. Although there are certain differences, the fluctuation is small.
This week, the K-line closed above 4,000 points, and the K-line pattern can continue to maintain a strong pattern.
From the monthly line, if the current trend is maintained, a little stronger can break through the historical high.
Although it is currently at a pressure point, the trend is healthy and all selling orders are taken. With the emergence of favorable sentiment factors and the inflow of funds in the future, it will soon reach a new historical high.

Market sentiment analysis

- On the one hand, as the price of Ethereum rises, some profit-taking has occurred in the market. For example, large investors such as Justin Sun deposited a large amount of Ethereum in the exchange, reflecting that the market's profit-taking atmosphere is becoming stronger, which has affected the market's bullish sentiment to a certain extent.
- On the other hand, Ethereum's recent strong performance and its strong technical support and wide application scenarios, such as applications in decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFT), have made some investors optimistic about its long-term development.

Fund flow analysis

- Ethereum spot ETF has continued to record net inflows since the US election, with a net inflow of US$534 million in a single week. Among them, Fidelity's FETH and Blackrock ETHE funds attracted US$199 million and US$306 million respectively, showing that institutional investors are very interested in Ethereum.
- Recently, large investors have net inflows of more than 97,000 Ethereum, worth about $298 million, indicating that institutional investors still have confidence in Ethereum, and their large-scale accumulation behavior may trigger a follow-up effect in the market.
- In the past week, the net outflow of Ethereum from exchanges reached $1.12 billion, reflecting that retail investors continue to increase their holdings and tend to hold them for the long term. This continuous outflow of funds usually indicates a stable upward momentum.
#以太坊领涨

December 6 Cryptocurrency Market Trends: Price Volatility and Regulatory Changes

Yesterday, the cryptocurrency market was unusually "lively", with numerous heavyweight news attracting global investor attention:

Price experienced a "roller coaster": Bitcoin plummeted during trading, almost approaching $90,000, then rebounded strongly, now around $97,000; it had just broken through $100,000 to reach an all-time high. In the futures market, CME Bitcoin futures main contract reported $102,000, and Ethereum futures DCR main contract reached $4,068.50, showing significant gains, while Ripple also rose by 3.70%. The niche cryptocurrency Worldcoin soared by 21%, hitting a six-month high of $4.19.
- The liquidation situation is shocking: over 210,000 people were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with amounts reaching $1.09 billion.
- Market capitalization fluctuations: within 12 hours, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization surged by $113 billion as if "riding a rocket", then dropped by $203 billion like a "high dive", finally recovering to $3.50 trillion.
- New regulatory actions: Trump appointed PayPal co-founder David Sacks to oversee cryptocurrency and AI; the Czech Republic passed a bill exempting capital gains tax on Bitcoin held for over three years, effective January 1, 2025.
#加密沙皇

#以太坊领涨
Holding is more important than anything else$ETH

Analysis of the Latest Unemployment Rate in the United States

According to a report from the U.S. Department of Labor on December 6, 2024, the unemployment rate in the U.S. for November was 4.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first increase since August, with the number of unemployed reaching 7.1 million. Despite a significant rebound in non-farm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs in November compared to the previous month, the labor market overall continues to trend towards cooling.

Analysis of Future Economic Trends in the United States

- Optimistic Factors:
- Consumer Spending Support: Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity. Despite high inflation, the consumer market in the U.S. remains robust, playing a key role in supporting the economy.
- Economic Growth Expectations: Federal Reserve's Williams predicts that the U.S. GDP will reach 2.5% or higher this year, and the OECD anticipates that economic growth in the U.S. will be 2.1% in 2024, both indicating that the U.S. economy has some growth momentum.
- Rate Cut Expectations: After the release of the non-farm payroll report, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's “FedWatch” tool indicated an 88.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. Rate cut expectations are beneficial for lowering corporate financing costs and stimulating economic growth.
- Risk Factors:
- Stubborn Inflation: In October, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose by 2.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to September. Fitch recently raised its inflation expectations for the U.S., predicting that inflation will reach 2.8% by the end of 2025. High inflation may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates, suppressing economic growth.
- Cooling Labor Market: The unemployment rate has risen again after three months, and the “small non-farm” ADP employment data fell short of expectations. The overall labor market is trending towards cooling, which may affect consumer spending and economic growth momentum.
- Policy Uncertainty: The economic policies of the new government following Trump's administration may experience significant shifts. Future economic development may face increased instability and uncertainty, such as potential expansionary fiscal policies and significant tariff increases. While these measures may raise inflation and reduce the risk of a recession in the U.S., they also bring numerous uncertainties.

Summary in One Sentence: The unemployment rate is rising, leading to increased expectations for rate hikes, which will be reflected in the frequency and intensity of rate increases. If the economic outlook is also not optimistic, it may benefit the cryptocurrency market.

An independent trader who only engages in real trading, recording trading insights, and enjoys sharing them with those who love to learn.