According to the #RSI indicator filter, at the daily level, #zen , #moca , #uxlink have entered the overbought zone with the recent price increase. If they rise to a critical point or resistance level, they may face a correction in the future;
VANA, BAN, ACX, THE have entered or are close to the oversold zone after recent price declines. If they drop to important support areas below, they may face a rebound in the future.

Of course, overbought and oversold indicators are biased towards left-side trading ideas, which involve guessing bottoms and escaping tops, a subjective contrarian mindset. In contrast, the Matthew effect and right-side trading ideas are completely opposite because the strong tend to get stronger, and the weak tend to get weaker. Objective trend-following trading ideas may allow overbought and oversold tokens to continue their recent strong or weak trends.

Today is Christmas, wishing everyone a Merry Christmas!
#“圣诞老人行情”再现

The liquidation map shows that if the BTC price breaks above $103,000, there will be $1.365 billion worth of short positions liquidated;
If the BTC price breaks below $92,520, there will be $2.226 billion worth of long positions liquidated.
According to the latest data from 45505333573, it visually reflects the risk control positions of main funds and can also serve as a reference for trading or entry. However, considering that the US and European stock markets and futures platforms will be closed during the Christmas period, it is expected that traders will take vacations, which may lead to a decrease in trading volume and also affect volatility.

The seven major trends predicted for 2025 by yesterday's forecast is also a reference for our potential development directions in the industry or areas of focus, some of which may materialize while others may still be quite distant. Just like our expectations for 20636273814 from the year before last have materialized, leading to large-scale capital inflows, and the election of Trump as President of the United States in November this year has completely changed the market and industry landscape.
Here, we can also predict a rather interesting topic, such as whether the 53966746949 rainbow chart can still produce miraculous effects in 2025 and the next decade?

Below are some predictions from Forbes and our outlook:
G7 or BRICS countries may establish 40968918264, and the status of cryptocurrency in the global financial system is becoming increasingly important.
The market value of stablecoins is expected to double to $400 billion, reflecting the growing demand for stablecoins as a store of value and medium of exchange.
The growth of the Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem, particularly with the help of L2 networks, indicates innovation and expansion in DeFi.
The expansion of crypto ETF products to Ethereum staking and Solana and other tracks signifies diversification of crypto investment products and increased participation from institutional investors.
Tech giants may follow Tesla in increasing their Bitcoin holdings, which could further drive the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies.
The total market value of the crypto market is expected to exceed $8 trillion, based on the current growth momentum of the cryptocurrency market and its future development potential.
Improvements in the regulatory environment in the United States will promote a resurgence in crypto startups, potentially bringing more innovation and vitality to the industry.

The balance of CEX on-site #BTC has shown a significant rebound after hitting a historical low last week. Recent data shows that the balances and capital flows of various CEX Bitcoin wallets are different, with an outflow state over the past 30 days, while in the short term, the last 7 days have shown a net inflow. The market funds are diverging, with some investors possibly selling at highs and others buying at lows.
Since December 19, the CEX on-site BTC balance has rebounded significantly, which is closely related to the drop in BTC prices following the hawkish interest rate decision on #美联储会议 last week. We speculate that this may be due to leading funds choosing to take profits and reduce holdings at relatively high levels to prevent market uncertainty, causing some selling pressure and leading to a market pullback.
Another piece of data can also help verify this, as the acceleration of BTC selling behavior over the past 30 days indicates that holding BTC is no longer the default behavior for all market participants. The short-term holder supply ratio of #长期持有者 has dropped to 3.78, the lowest level in this cycle, indicating increased trading activity in the market. #短期持有者 is more active, and the market sentiment is complex and changeable, with investors showing divergence regarding the future trend of Bitcoin.

The continuous inflow of funds and growth in trading volume for US spot #比特币ETF indicates strong interest from institutional and retail investors in Bitcoin. Over the past 50 weeks, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have reached $463 million, with trading volume hitting $26 billion, and the inflow for the fourth quarter to date stands at $17.5 billion, making it the best-performing quarter, showcasing Bitcoin's appeal as an investment asset.
Price for #BTC has dropped to $92,000. Despite price fluctuations, the proportion of Bitcoin held by ETFs, government agencies, and MSTR has risen to 31%, up from 14% last year, indicating that large investors have confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value. This increase in ownership concentration may impact market liquidity and price stability, especially in the face of market volatility.
The situation with #以太坊ETF is also noteworthy, as #coinank shows a net inflow of $62.73 million last week, while the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF ETHE saw a net outflow of $99.83 million, with historical net outflows reaching $3.62 billion. This comparison of inflows and outflows may reveal market sentiment and expectations regarding different Ethereum-related products.
ETF data reflects the trends in fund flows and investor sentiment within the cryptocurrency market, and with more institutional investors participating and the crypto market maturing, it is expected to continue influencing market dynamics.

Data shows that in the past week, although #BTC has declined, the cryptocurrency market, categorized by concept sectors, has seen significant net inflows concentrated in major fields such as Avalanche ecosystem, #Arbitrum ecosystem, #币安智能合约 , and Real World Assets (RWA). In the past week, many cryptocurrencies have also experienced substantial rotational increases. The data for #coinank selects the top 500 by market capitalization as follows: #zen , USUAL, SDEX, AIXBT, MOVE, and ZEC have seen relatively high increases.

On Monday, over $112 million flowed out from a certain platform, marking the largest single-day outflow in the platform's history. According to yesterday's news, multiple North Korean hacker addresses are trading on this DEX.
Currently, the data shows that the top five holdings are #BTC , #ETH , #HYPE , SOL, and #xrp ; there is not much change in the top five trading volumes compared to the holdings, with the fifth place slightly different as XRP was pushed out and replaced by #sui . This indicates that the turnover rate of SUI is higher than that of XRP, and it also suggests that SUI attracts more short-term speculative funds, resulting in a shorter holding period.

This week, tokens such as IMX and DBX will experience significant unlocks. The following are in UTC+8 time:
#大额解锁
Ethena (#ENA ) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens on December 25th at 15:00, accounting for 0.44% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 13.22 million USD;
Cardano (#ADA ) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens on December 26th at 08:00, accounting for 0.05% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 16.30 million USD;
Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens on December 27th at 08:00, accounting for 1.45% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 32.12 million USD;
Beldex (DBX) will unlock approximately 330 million tokens on December 30th at 08:00, accounting for 4.78% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 25.46 million USD.

This week, pay attention to the bearish effects brought by the unlocks of these tokens, avoid spot trading, and seek short opportunities in contracts. Among them, #DBX and #IMX have a larger proportion and scale of unlock circulation, so pay extra attention.

#BTC currently shows signs of breaking the trend line support, but considering the previous sharp rise, the decline is also a normal retracement. But some altcoins have fallen to the level of the US presidential election on November 5-6. 😅Dust to dust. #加密市场回调 The altcoin index has fallen to around 48 again, and it is expected to be lower tomorrow according to the market update.
Regarding the peak of #山寨币 , I told everyone in early December, one or two weeks in advance, that if the altcoin index rises to more than 85 in the future, you should pay attention to the risk area. In fact, it started to fall sharply at the highest of 88. I have always adhered to the concept that the altcoin's rebound is not sustainable. Rotation means timely profit reduction after the rally.

The following figure shows my tips and interpretations on the altcoin index from late November to early December. From the healthy state of around 48 at the beginning of the effort in late November, to the continuity-related prompts, to the warning at 78-80 later, it was about to enter the risk zone when it exceeded 85. In fact, it peaked and fell back in a few days, especially starting to fall sharply on December 10.

#BTC four-hour level, currently near the testing of the second ascending trend line. If future closes are below approximately $96,800 (not an absolute point, approximate location, allowing for error), it can be seen as a breakdown. Breaking below the trend line indicates a bearish trend in the medium to short term. Short-term support is around $94,150/$90,500, while medium-term support is still looking at the trend line starting point near $85,000. Before the four-hour closing price breaks below the trend line, there may still be a chance for a rebound (similar to the last time, where it dipped twice and then rebounded).
In fact, it mainly depends on the U.S. stock market. As I mentioned before, if the U.S. stock market is at a stage top, then BTC will also follow with a significant correction.
Currently, many people like to attribute the reasons for the decline entirely to Powell's remarks on #比特币战略储备 . This actually reflects a lack of understanding of macroeconomics and #美联储利率决议 , and the hawkish logic of this statement, merely staying within the narrative of the crypto industry. In fact, from the end of the bull market in 2020-2021 to the peak, the crypto market has almost completely aligned with macro policies and the peak of the U.S. stock market. Especially in the past three years, the mining industry has shifted to North America, and Bitcoin spot ETFs were listed for trading in the U.S. at the beginning of this year. The pricing power of BTC is now almost entirely controlled by the U.S. market. The U.S. stock market continued to decline overnight, which will naturally also impact the crypto market led by BTC. This is also why I often mention the macro logic of the movements of #美股 , #美元指数 , gold, and their impact on the crypto market during my analysis.

In yesterday's article, I focused on interpreting the 'hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve' and the hawkish stance of #鲍威尔 . #BTC☀ also fell to the short-term support level near $99,200, as I analyzed on Monday and Tuesday. Here is also near the first trendline support, with the next trendline support around $96,800.
At three o'clock this morning, this meeting's #美联储降息 25 basis points met expectations. But importantly, the wording of the meeting statement has been adjusted, reflecting that the FOMC is considering changes in the pace and magnitude of subsequent policy implementations. There was also a divergence in the voting, with some members opposing a rate cut in December. Economic forecasts clearly reflect concerns about inflation risks, and the Federal Reserve's risk balance has evidently shifted back towards inflation. The dot plot only hints at two rate cuts next year, showing an absolute hawkish tendency. Powell is cautious about further rate cuts and expresses a hawkish stance.
After the meeting, the dollar surged, while U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all fell sharply.
The hawkish statement and stance have weakened expectations for the future path and level of rate cuts, meaning fewer rate cuts and a possibility of maintaining higher interest rates in the future. This is also the core logic behind this round of declines, and Powell's comments about #比特币储备 are merely a small catalyst. The significant drop of the three major stock indices, as evidenced by #美股 , clearly shows that the market's core logic is still a reaction to the strengthening dollar.

The scale of #比特币现货ETF in the United States has surpassed its #黄金ETF .
In the United States, the assets under management of #BTC☀ ETFs of $129.3 billion have surpassed the gold ETF ($128.9 billion). Due to a slight decline in the price of the currency, #coinank data shows that it is currently about $120.7 billion. Although gold has a 20-year first-mover advantage, it has now been overtaken. Nate, president of The ETF Store, said that in the long run, the scale of spot Bitcoin ETFs may be three times that of gold ETFs.
We believe that the scale of assets under management of the US Bitcoin spot ETF has surpassed that of the gold ETF. This milestone event marks the increasing status of crypto assets in traditional financial markets. The rapid growth of Bitcoin ETFs, especially the fact that the scale of assets under management has reached $129 billion in just 11 months, highlights the strong demand and acceptance of crypto assets in the market. Some professionals in the market predict that in the long run, the scale of spot Bitcoin ETFs may be three times that of gold ETFs, indicating that the market is optimistic about the long-term growth potential of Bitcoin. The growth of Bitcoin ETFs also reflects investors' interest in cryptocurrencies as an emerging asset class and an alternative to traditional gold as a safe-haven asset. As Bitcoin ETFs continue to grow, their influence on the market is expected to further expand, likely to attract more attention and investment from institutional and individual investors.

After hitting a new high of around $107,777 (#BTC☀ ), there was a slight pullback before continuing to rebound, consistent with yesterday's prediction that the overall trend will be 'first up and then down.' The overnight SEC filing disclosed that #MicroStrategy has continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings, purchasing 15,350 Bitcoins last week at an average of $100,386, which has propelled Bitcoin prices to continue reaching historical highs alongside the US stock index #纳斯达克 .
The daily line reported a medium bullish candle this morning with a small upper shadow. In our article this afternoon, we discussed that there would be a pullback followed by a rebound during the day. The overall strategy remains unchanged: aside from recent highs, there are no historical resistance levels to refer to, and short-term gains and losses should reference yesterday's low point near $103,333. Support can be found around the weekend's pullback low points of $100,610 and $99,212. As long as these levels are not broken, the market is likely to continue in a bullish trend. The trend indicator on the 4-hour level has shown bullish signals since December 12, and it is advisable to consider maintaining a right-side trading strategy focused on buying during pullbacks.
It is expected that the bullish trend will be maintained until the landing of #美联储降息 this week.

In the past 7 days, CEX has accumulated a net outflow of 37,700 #BTC☀️ . Among them, Binance and two other outflows ranked in the top three. This may reflect the long-term holding confidence of large investors in Bitcoin and possible changes in market trends. The recent market also confirms these performances, #BTC持续刷新高点
This large-scale BTC outflow may be related to several factors. As the price of the currency rises, the increase in outflows may indicate that investors hold confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin and choose to transfer assets to personal wallets and reduce holdings on exchanges to reduce potential security risks and improve fund control. As the cryptocurrency market matures, more and more investors may prefer long-term holding rather than short-term trading, which may also lead to an increase in outflows. These data provide an important perspective on market sentiment and investor behavior, and are of reference value for understanding the dynamics of the Bitcoin market.