#BTC four-hour level, currently near the testing of the second ascending trend line. If future closes are below approximately $96,800 (not an absolute point, approximate location, allowing for error), it can be seen as a breakdown. Breaking below the trend line indicates a bearish trend in the medium to short term. Short-term support is around $94,150/$90,500, while medium-term support is still looking at the trend line starting point near $85,000. Before the four-hour closing price breaks below the trend line, there may still be a chance for a rebound (similar to the last time, where it dipped twice and then rebounded).

In fact, it mainly depends on the U.S. stock market. As I mentioned before, if the U.S. stock market is at a stage top, then BTC will also follow with a significant correction.

Currently, many people like to attribute the reasons for the decline entirely to Powell's remarks on #比特币战略储备 . This actually reflects a lack of understanding of macroeconomics and #美联储利率决议 , and the hawkish logic of this statement, merely staying within the narrative of the crypto industry. In fact, from the end of the bull market in 2020-2021 to the peak, the crypto market has almost completely aligned with macro policies and the peak of the U.S. stock market. Especially in the past three years, the mining industry has shifted to North America, and Bitcoin spot ETFs were listed for trading in the U.S. at the beginning of this year. The pricing power of BTC is now almost entirely controlled by the U.S. market. The U.S. stock market continued to decline overnight, which will naturally also impact the crypto market led by BTC. This is also why I often mention the macro logic of the movements of #美股 , #美元指数 , gold, and their impact on the crypto market during my analysis.