Around 3 PM Beijing time on November 6, the highly anticipated results of the U.S. presidential election have concluded. The Republican candidate and former President Trump, who has publicly supported cryptocurrency, is leading Harris by a margin of 277 votes and has secured the key state of Pennsylvania, successfully obtaining the opportunity to take office as the next president.
At the same time, Bitcoin reached a high of $75,656 around 11:05 AM this morning, once again setting a new historical high. However, as of the time of writing, the price has slightly retreated, possibly due to profit-taking by whales, with the current quote at $73,747, an increase of about 8.8% in the last 24 hours.

The U.S. election will officially arrive at 11:00 AM local time on November 5. Many market investors are betting on Trump's election, leading relevant concept stocks and Bitcoin to show a rising trend. However, as potential returns gradually decrease and risks and returns continue to worsen, everyone is beginning to take profits gradually. On the other hand, the U.S. stock market also performed poorly last week, which may be one of the reasons for the market's decline. However, DaXian believes that post-election market momentum is likely to drive the market higher.
　　　Additionally, there is a major announcement this week. The Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision for November on the 8th of this month, which may also lead to significant fluctuations in the global market. Currently, the market believes that the probability of a rate cut of 0.25% this month has risen to 98.9%, with only 1.1% believing that the Fed will maintain the interest rate.

The latest opinion poll results show that U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris is only slightly ahead of former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Trump by 1%. However, 10% of voters may change their minds before the election.　
　　Harris currently leads Trump with a support rate of 49% to 48%, but there is still room for change in support rates as there are only a few days left before the election, with about 10% of potential voters and 16% of registered voters indicating they are still weighing their options. Additionally, in the seven key swing states that could determine the final election winner, Harris leads Trump with a support rate of 49% to 48%, which was 50% to 46% in favor of Trump a week ago.　

The United States will hold its presidential election on November 5, with the election situation in swing states being unpredictable, increasing market instability and prompting investors to turn to cryptocurrencies and gold as safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, since October of last year, the Middle East has seen conflicts between Israel and surrounding organizations or countries such as Hamas, Iraq, and Lebanon, while the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war has not yet ended. Against the backdrop of escalating regional conflicts towards internationalization, the safe-haven value of cryptocurrencies and gold is gradually rising.
The expectation of interest rate cuts in November has also driven the rise of cryptocurrencies and gold as safe-haven assets, with the market predicting a 99% chance of a 25 basis point cut in November and a 1% chance of no cut. Since cryptocurrencies and gold do not yield interest, a rate cut will lower the cost of holding safe-haven assets, thereby enhancing their attractiveness to investors.

Bitcoin surged to $68,771 on the 25th, hitting near the profit-taking point of Master, before suddenly plummeting. It dropped to a low of $65,596.29 early on the 26th, but then rebounded above $66,000. Over the weekend, it oscillated around $66,600 to $67,400, and as of the time of writing, the quote is $68,207, up 1.66% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin Four Hour Chart


First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator in the 4H level chart of Bitcoin, the price is approaching the upper band but has not broken through, indicating that the price is in an overbought state. If the price continues to break upward along the upper band, there may be further upward trends. However, if the price fails to effectively break through the upper band, it may pull back towards the middle band.

From October 22 to 24, 2024, the BRICS Summit was held in Kazan, Russia. This was the first summit held since the member countries expanded to 9 in January. Besides political topics, Russian President Putin stated that the dominant role of BRICS nations in the global economy will continue to strengthen, criticizing Western nations' unilateral economic sanctions against Russia, Iran, and other BRICS countries.
　　
　At the same time, he proposed the establishment of a BRICS food exchange and a BRICS investment platform, which would help BRICS countries bypass the US-led global financial system for international trade. Although he did not mention whether cryptocurrencies would be used for trade among BRICS member countries, in September prior, Russia officially allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in cross-border transactions and trading. A series of policies reflect the country’s positive shift in attitude, viewing cryptocurrencies as a significant tool to bypass Western sanctions and even for de-dollarization.　　

On Wednesday Eastern Time, the US stock market opened lower and continued to decline, with all three major indices recording their largest drop in several weeks, with the Nasdaq down 1.6%. By the close, the Dow Jones Index fell 0.96%, reporting at 42,514.95 points; the S&P 500 Index fell 0.92%, reporting at 5,797.42 points; the Nasdaq Index fell 1.60%, reporting at 18,276.65 points.
In the cryptocurrency sector, possibly affected by the downturn in US stocks, Bitcoin's price dropped from a high of $67,833 around 6 AM on the 23rd to a low of $65,260 around 2 AM on the 24th, marking its lowest point since mid-month. Meanwhile, the short position near $67,800 mentioned in an article on the 22nd successfully took profit at $65,600, securing a profit of 2,200 points. As of the writing time, Bitcoin's price has rebounded slightly, quoted at $66,641, down 1.15% in the last 24 hours.

The U.S. presidential election countdown is 13 days. This year, the former U.S. president and Republican presidential candidate Trump, who has publicly supported cryptocurrencies multiple times, has seen his winning probability rise to 64%, expanding his lead over Democratic candidate Harris, whose probability has dropped to 35.9%. This is a new high for Trump since Biden withdrew from the race in late July.

Regarding cryptocurrencies, after Bitcoin peaked at $69,546 yesterday morning, selling pressure began to emerge. Late last night, it briefly fell below $67,000, and around 8:30 this morning, it again plunged close to the $66,500 level, quickly breaking below the low of October 17 and pulling back, causing many investors to be washed out. As of the writing time, the price is $67,325, down 2.45% in the last 24 hours. Currently, Bitcoin's upward trend seems to show signs of interruption. Is this just a brief pullback, or is the main player trying to cut a wave of retail investors when market sentiment is high, only to pull back during the U.S. election?

Recently, with the global geopolitical situation becoming tense, especially with the approaching US presidential election, investors from all walks of life have begun to seek safe-haven assets to combat economic uncertainty. Bitcoin and gold are the main beneficiaries because they are seen as assets that combat the depreciation of the US dollar and are also considered to have "value storage" characteristics.

At around 21:30 last night, Bitcoin quickly rose to nearly the $68,000 mark. Perhaps because of the setback in the opening of the U.S. stock market or investors’ profit-taking, a large amount of selling pressure emerged, causing the price of Bitcoin to plummet by more than $3,000 in one hour, reaching a low of $64,781. But just when investors thought that the decline was just beginning to emerge, Bitcoin made a V-turn and pulled back to $67,000. The price fluctuations in the "N" shape trend led to a double kill of long and short positions. As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin was quoted at $67,751, up about 2.01% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin began to fall significantly around 11 p.m. on the 13th, reaching a low of $62,050, but soon made a V-turn and pulled back above $63,000, then fluctuated around $62,500, and then suddenly rose sharply from $62,500 at 11 a.m. this morning, rising to a high of $65,188, setting a new high for this month. As of the time of writing, the price was quoted at $64,830, up about 3.1% in the past 24 hours.
　
Bitcoin four-hour chart
　
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First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the current price has broken through the upper Bollinger Band, which is an obvious upward signal, indicating that the market sentiment is relatively optimistic. Currently running near the upper band, although it will bring some callback pressure in the short term, as long as the price can maintain between the middle and upper bands, the market will still maintain a bullish trend.

The much-anticipated US election has entered the final month countdown. In the long run, regardless of the election results, Bitcoin will develop in a positive direction under low interest rates and the continued normal US fiscal deficit and unprecedented debt levels. If Democratic candidate Harris wins in the end, the cryptocurrency market may be hit in the short term, and Bitcoin may retest the $40,000 support; but if former US President Trump wins, it will be more conducive to Bitcoin's rise, and it may even rise to the key resistance of $80,000.

Affected by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin has recently fallen from around $66,500 to a low of $59,828. Last night, it staged a battle to defend $60,000. It fell below the $60,000 mark several times within four hours and then recovered. The long-short tug-of-war was quite intense. It was not until after 1 a.m. that there was a significant increase, breaking through $61,000 at one point. As of the time of writing, the price was quoted at $61,350, up 0.98% in the past 24 hours.

The decline of Bitcoin is not a bad thing for investors, because the current market decline can bring new buying opportunities to everyone, because the election competition between Trump and Harris for the US presidency is coming soon. As a Republican candidate who has publicly supported cryptocurrency many times, Trump's chances of winning are equal to Harris's, which also indicates that the market may usher in a wave of rising prices.