Since Trump won the US election on November 8, Bitcoin has been pushing towards the 100000 dollar mark, reaching a peak of over 99500 dollars on November 23, with a cumulative increase of 37.6% over nearly a month. However, since last weekend, Bitcoin has begun to show the most obvious pullback since Trump's election, fluctuating downwards from around 99500 dollars, reaching a low of around 90800 dollars this morning. As of the time of writing, there has been a slight recovery, priced at 93353 dollars, with a decline of 1.68% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break through 100000 dollars, which is attributed to long-term investors in the market taking substantial profits during the post-election celebration. Currently, these individuals have begun to take profits, with long-term holders selling off up to 2.02 billion dollars in daily profits, setting a historical high. This indicates that the market needs a strong demand side to absorb this excess supply. However, this process may require a period of re-accumulation to complete.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
Firstly, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator in the Bitcoin 4H chart, the price has rebounded near the lower Bollinger band and is gradually approaching the mid-band, indicating that the market is gradually recovering from an oversold state. If the price can effectively stabilize above the mid-band, it may continue an upward trend, with the target likely near the upper band. However, if the price fails to effectively stabilize above the mid-band, it may continue to fluctuate between the lower band and the mid-band.
Secondly, based on the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 4H chart, the K line and D line values have rebounded from a low position and are rising. They have not yet entered the overbought area, but the J line value is quickly approaching, indicating strong short-term rebound momentum. If the K line value and D line value break through the 50 area, it will further strengthen the upward trend. However, it is also necessary to be aware of the risk of a pullback at high levels.
Finally, based on the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 4H chart, the DIF line and DEA line are still below the 0 axis but are showing a trend of gradually converging, and the MACD green histogram is gradually shortening, indicating that bearish strength is weakening. If the DIF line breaks upwards through the DEA line to form a golden cross pattern, it may further confirm the rebound trend.
Bitcoin one-hour chart
Firstly, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator in the Bitcoin 1H chart, the price has rebounded from the lower Bollinger band and is currently running near the mid-band, but has not effectively broken through the mid-band, indicating a short-term fluctuation adjustment trend. If the price can effectively stabilize above the mid-band, it may continue to test the upper band pressure (94500-95000). If the price fails to effectively stabilize above the mid-band and falls back, it may seek support again near the lower band (91000).
Secondly, based on the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 1H chart, the K line and D line values are in the overbought area, and the J line value has started to turn downwards, indicating that there may be short-term pullback pressure. If the K line value and D line value move down and fall below 50, it can confirm that the short-term trend has entered a downward phase, and there may be a chance for a rebound only after returning to the oversold area.
Finally, based on the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 1H chart, the DIF line and DEA line are close to the 0 axis below, and no obvious golden cross or dead cross signals have formed. The MACD red histogram is gradually shortening, indicating that bullish strength is declining. If the DIF line crosses down through the DEA line to form a dead cross pattern, the price will further decline. If the DIF line and DEA line break through the 0 axis and increase in volume, it may further push upwards.
In summary, the current Bitcoin price shows signs of rebound, with MACD and KDJ indicators supporting the demand for a short-term rebound on the 4H level. The key resistance level is around the mid-Bollinger band at 95000. On the 1H level, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating near the mid-band, and the short-term direction is still unclear. If the KDJ and MACD signal a bearish trend, it may drop to retest support near 91000.
In summary, Daxian gives the following suggestions for reference.
Bitcoin pulled back to around 92600 to go long, targeting 94000-94500, with a stop at 92000.
Instead of giving you a 100% accurate suggestion, I would rather give you a correct mindset and trend. After all, teaching a person to fish is better than giving them a fish. The goal is to focus on the mindset, understanding the trend, and planning the layout and positions. What I can do is use my practical experience to help you ensure that your investment decisions and management are heading in the right direction.
Written time: (2024-11-27, 17:30)
(Written by - Daxian Discussing Coins) This is to declare: There is a delay in online publishing, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in investment areas such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, foreign exchange, and stocks, with years of experience in financial markets and rich practical operation experience. Investing has risks, and caution is required when entering the market. For more real-time market analysis, please follow Daxian Discussing Coins to explore and communicate together.#市场波动，加仓还是观望？
