With the market's anticipation of the national-level Bitcoin reserve proposed by Trump, and the optimistic expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this week, Bitcoin broke through the $106,000 mark this morning, surpassing the previous high set on December 5. Bitcoin has risen for seven consecutive weeks, marking the longest weekly gain streak since 2021. Since the U.S. election, Bitcoin has surged over 55%, with a monthly increase of more than 14%. The market sentiment index, 'Greed and Fear Index', has soared to 83 points, entering the 'Extreme Greed' zone, indicating that investors are extremely confident about the market's future.
However, Bitcoin's bullish momentum may face correction risks, especially as the pace of increase slows down, which may imply increased short-term pullback pressure. As of the time of writing, it has retreated to $104,615, with an approximate 24-hour increase of 2.75%.
Trump's friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies has completely reversed the high-pressure regulatory atmosphere of the Biden administration, becoming a significant driving force behind Bitcoin's rally. He not only proposed establishing a national Bitcoin strategic reserve but also called for making the U.S. a leader in the global cryptocurrency industry, reigniting market expectations. Such policy orientation is undoubtedly a catalyst for Bitcoin to break new highs and will drive the cryptocurrency market into a new wave of fervor.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate policy meeting on December 18, and the market generally expects a rate cut of 25 basis points (0.25%). If the rate decision meets expectations, it will further drive funds into the high-yield cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
First, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4-hour Bitcoin chart, the current price is near the upper band, in the overbought area, which means there is a risk of a pullback in the short term. The Bollinger Bands channel is expanding upwards, indicating that the overall market is in an upward trend, but the divergence between the price and the upper band is significant, making it prone to adjustment.
Secondly, based on the KDJ indicator on the 4-hour Bitcoin chart, the K line value and D line value are already in the overbought area above 80, and the J line value is at a higher position and starting to flatten out. This situation indicates that the market is in the overbought area in the short term, and a pullback correction may occur subsequently.
Finally, based on the MACD indicator on the 4-hour Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line are above the 0 axis, indicating that the market is still in a strong bullish phase. The MACD histogram is in red and gradually increasing, suggesting that the current bullish momentum is strong. However, it is essential to note that a divergence may occur at the top. If the MACD red histogram starts to shorten, it indicates that bullish momentum is beginning to weaken, and the price may experience oscillation and pullback in the short term.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart
First, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 1-hour Bitcoin chart, the price started to retreat after reaching the upper band and is currently above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, indicating that the market is in an upward trend. However, there is resistance after the price hits the upper band, showing signs of a pullback. In the short term, it may retest the middle band (104000) for support. If the price stabilizes at the middle band, it may continue to advance towards the upper band.
Secondly, based on the KDJ indicator on the 1-hour Bitcoin chart, the KDJ three-line value has turned downward from the overbought area. Although it has not formed a clear death cross, it also indicates that the short-term market may face pullback pressure.
Finally, based on the MACD indicator on the 1-hour Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line have formed a death cross at a high position, indicating a weakening of short-term bullish momentum. The MACD histogram has also changed from red to green, suggesting that market momentum is gradually weakening, and there may be pressure for a pullback in the short term.
Comprehensive analysis shows that the Bollinger Bands channel is still expanding upwards, indicating that the overall trend remains upward. However, the MACD has formed a death cross on the 1-hour chart and the KDJ indicator is in the overbought area, suggesting that there may be certain pullback pressure in the short term. It is essential to pay attention to the support strength near the middle band (104000) on the 1-hour chart. If it effectively breaks below the middle band, it may further test the 103000 level.
In summary, the expert offers the following suggestions for reference
Suggestion 1: Consider going short on Bitcoin around 104800 during the rebound, with a target of 103300-103000 and a stop loss at 105300.
Suggestion 2: Consider going long on Bitcoin around 103300, with a target of 104000-105000 and a stop loss at 102800.
Instead of giving you a 100% accurate suggestion, it is better to provide you with a correct mindset and trend. After all, teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish. Suggestions may profit temporarily, but learning to think will help you earn for a lifetime! The focus is on the mindset, grasping trends, and planning positions. What I can do is use my practical experience to help everyone and guide your investment decisions and management in the right direction.
Submission time: (2024-12-16, 17:30)
(Written by the Expert) This statement clarifies: There is a delay in online publication; the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in investment areas such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, foreign exchange, and stocks, having been involved in the financial markets for many years with rich hands-on experience. Investment carries risks; caution is advised when entering the market. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the expert's account to discuss and exchange ideas together. #BTC再创新高
