Macro update.
This matters most for Crypto price for the rest of this year
Not the ETF and not the election.
*Please see attached images*
Last week, a September rate cut was 100% predicted on CME FedWatch(Most widely used and trusted site)
In the last week, even over the last day a chance of no interest rate cut in September has been rising.
This comes on the back of Trumps statement to Powell last week and some mixed economic readings, most importantly a labour market that keeps deteriorating.(Needs a rate cut)
The higher the % of September having no cuts the worse it would be for Crypto.
A July cut is now priced at 2.6%.
Many people will start the "parabolic ALT cycle" talk again now that Crypto has had a slight rally, without rate cuts no sustained crypto rally will happen above 2.6-2.8T, you can hold me to that!
If the odds of no cut in September keep rising then Crytpo will become bearish again.
China news,
China cut lending rates yesterday and announced a liquidity injection into the economy.
I see many people saying how China cutting lending rates led to BTC gaining 100% in previous years.
Firstly, this lending rate cut is nothing drastic, Secondly, this was based around price action in 2016, China still had BTC exchanges then and crypto was not banned.
Please dont be swayed by things like this without doing further research.
Nothing is predictable at the moment, Crypto could rally and lose all gains on a day to day basis, leveraged retail will be losing while the whales and CEXs just keep making fortunes.
This constant Euphoria and fear is what they create and what they make Billions off.
Ethereum ETFs are speculated to bring in $1-2 billion NET in the early months, they will not lead to $600 Billion in new capital, the same way Germany selling $2 billion worth of BTC was not the reason Crypto dropped $600 billion in weeks.
It’s about far bigger policy concerns, zoom out.
Trade safely.
Peace
