Firstly i expect mild/moderate Bullish conditions until Thursday.

After Thursday sentiment will become data/Powell related.

The basket of economic data last week was good for the global stock market but it took crypto a couple days to share in the Bullish sentiment.

I imagine the lag in crypto sentiment was mostly due to talks around a cease fire in the Middle East being held on Friday.

The ceasefire proposal terms have been given to both Iran and Israel, what they both decide is yet to be seen.

I expect stock market indexes and Gold might see some profit taking to start the week but Bitcoin/Crypto has not seen similar gains over the last week, we might see some profit taking overall to start the Asia session but after I expect the week will start Bullish, this could continue until US economic data/news on Thursday/Friday which could affirm or change market sentiment.

The week ahead,

I have included the China interest rate decision because a lot of "hype" posters on square/social media post garbage about this.

Last month when China cut rates the talking heads were saying how this led to parabolic BTC price in previous years, they didn’t mention this was when China had BTC exchanges and BTC was legal(Both are illegal now)

I dont mean this as FUD, its just an example of why you should not take hype stories at face value, especially in crypto.

The US data/Powell and the Fed this week,

Firstly i want to say that the only reason i feel Bullish is because i know the market is quick to forget, the media push the narrative and the market reacts.

The global mainstream media is once again Bullish, soft landing is now the likely path, the Japan carry trade has resumed (more borrowed money for US stocks and even Crypto), Large banks like Goldman Sachs have cut their recession risk to 20% (based on 1 weeks worth of data)

The worldwide economy is like an old wooden boat, it’s rotting from the inside but when it springs a leak the central banks just patch the hole and put a new coat of paint on it and the market accepts it’s “like new” and jumps aboard.

I feel we could see a Bullish start to the week because until Thursday there is very little that could expose the rot and change the temporary narrative.👇

Firstly on Wednesday the FOMC minutes will be released, these are the minutes for the last meeting, the points and reasons of why the Fed held rates, they will be important to understand why the FED held rates and what they need to see for them to lower them in September, I don’t expect huge volatility around this, what Powell says later in the week will carry far more weight.

Thursday Aug 22

These are the readings that will be used as recession warnings, last week readings have painted over the rot in the market, for now, if the readings on Thursday are bad then once again the market will panic.

Unemployment has just gone from bad to less bad, it’s not good!

Flash Manufacturing was below 50 in the last reading, this points to contraction (recession)

Most importantly the bulls will look for the Unemployment claims to once again come out lower and for the manufacturing PMI to come out above 50.(Also services PMI to be as expected or better)

Jackson Hole symposium , Thursday 22nd-Saturday 24th

This is basically a closed door meeting of the most overpaid, influential and powerful central bankers, finance ministers, hedge fund elites and other very rich/powerful people from around the world.

Behind closed doors they discuss the global banking policy and how to keep printing and transferring wealth to the rich while keeping the poor/middle class under control and in debt.

They take time off from their champagne and caviar to give press conferences during the day, this is what could affect the market.

Most importantly will be when the global cult leader, sorry typo, the Fed President, Jerome Powell will speak on Friday (2:00pm UTC+0)

The global market will look to his speech for an indication of the Feds plan for a September rate cut, most importantly on if that cut could be 50bps or if the Fed is considering making 2-3(25bps) cuts this year.

The market will be volatile around press conferences on Thursday-Friday, most importantly when Powell speaks.

Final thoughts,

Based on last weeks positive economic data and how that will be taken by the market i cant see how we dont start the week Bullish.

This obviously relies on no increased tensions in the Middle East.

Thursday and Friday will be volatile, i would not advise high leverage/margin trading on those days (or ever), there could be news related shocks(unemployment, flash PMI), also the press conference times from the Jackson hole symposium are mostly not known (except Powell on Friday).

On a personal note,

I want to move away from posting on square, i really dont like what square is and what it promotes.

The posts i make that are revealing or are too informative are censored here, it is easy to see.

I am pro retail and totally anti crypto scams, unfortunately in crypto the scams and the people running them sell themselves as revolutionaries and pro crypto, including the exchanges and the posters who either work for/with them or who push their narrative.

I won’t push their narrative if it’s predatory or anti retail.

I started posting here to help the crypto community but a lot of that is lost on square, i also started posting to start a community and gain friends, this i have done and i value that more than anything, you can easily compare my posts to other posters who have 50-100k followers, they post 20-50x more, they get more likes and more views but i get far more comments on average, this is the community/friendship side that i value so much.

Over the next month i want to switch my focus to posting on X.

I know square offers anonymity which is possibly important to many of you, i don’t really know how to solve that on another platform like X , maybe make another X account if your current one is to personal, i really don’t know, this whole posting journey is still new to me, i have never posted outside of square.

I talk with many of you on an ongoing basis and on X i will be able to do that in a more private/ongoing way, i share many personal things about myself too here, i don’t really feel comfortable having it on square for all to see, the post pinned to my profile should explain why.

If you want to keep following my posts then please follow me on X.

I will still post here for now, i will always answer on my square posts, if you need help just comment on a post.

This has never been about making money for me and never will be, if i post on X I will get verified and pay the annual fee of $160 so i can post articles and be add free.

This is not my job, it is a labour of love, i don’t promote anything or earn anything from posting, i have never promoted or joined any of the Binance campaigns, i am here for the friendship/community and to try educate and learn.

My posts will always be 100% free to everyone, i will never promote anything or spam nonsense for views or followers, I always said I am not posting here to groom followers to an outside paid site (like many on square do), this is still 100% true, the only reason i want to do this now is for my own sanity and my own morals.

I am almost positive that a large part of the posts on square and the accounts (with large followers) that post them lead back to a centralised source to push a narrative (the dots are easy to connect if you look), i know that no social media site is pure, on square it just feels more force fed, more manipulated and more predatory against uninformed traders, i don't want to be a part of that system, i want to fight against that system.

Thanks for reading.

Peace.

#TheWolfThatWins #MarketDownturn #BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥