The 4-hour time frame also clearly shows that Bitcoin has begun an upward correction against a new downward trend. Since the price lows near the level of $40,746 were broken, we fully assume that the downward movement is not yet complete. Of course, as always, many experts are inclined to believe that Bitcoin will rise in price again, but let us remind you that we are not adherents of the point of view of the eternal growth of Bitcoin. At this time, Bitcoin has corrected upward by exactly 50% Fibonacci, so it is quite reasonable to expect a new round of downward movement. Targets are below $38,500. Meanwhile, analysts at CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin miner reserves have fallen to July 2021 lows. Experts also noted a sharp influx of Bitcoin coins to exchange addresses. They believe that a massive sell-off may occur in the next few days, which will lead to an inevitable fall in the rate of the first cryptocurrency. According to them, Bitcoin may fall below $40,000. It is noted that many miners are trying to get rid of their reserves before the “halving”, which is due to occur at the end of April and will lead to a reduction in rewards by 50%. It is also reported that small traders and investors may join the sales amid fears of a strong fall in Bitcoin. As we see, the fall of the first cryptocurrency, as they say, is brewing. Let us recall that, in our opinion, Bitcoin could or can count on growth in 2024 based on three main factors: halving, a reduction in Fed rates and the approval of a Bitcoin ETF. Let us also recall that the market always tries to work out a future event in advance. This is the basic principle of the market: buy on rumors, sell on facts. If so, then the factors for the approval of the Bitcoin ETF and the reduction in Fed rates have already been worked out, because they have been known about them for more than a year. We also believe that Bitcoin’s rise from $15,000 to almost $50,000 was not out of the blue. Investors and traders processed the information available to them.Thus, we do not expect the first cryptocurrency to strengthen significantly in 2024. Bitcoin ETFs have not led to mass adoption by institutional traders. Halving occurs every four years and cannot double the price of the first cryptocurrency every time. In the near future, we expect a stronger correction than what we have seen in recent weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, the cryptocurrency began to correct. We believe that the downward movement is not yet complete, and the rebound from the 50.0% Fibonacci level ($43,768) can be used for new sales. Targets for the new fall are scattered in the range of $38,500-$31,000. We see no reason to resume the growth of the first cryptocurrency at this time.#Write2Earn #TradeNTell

We can assume that the attempt to gain a foothold below the Ichimoku cloud on the 24-hour time frame ended in failure. A breakout of the Senkou Span B line happened, but it turned out to be false. At this time, the cryptocurrency has worked the Kijun-sen line (as we predicted), from which it has rebounded and, accordingly, may resume its fall. We believe that the downward movement is not yet complete and are waiting for its next round. Meanwhile, the head of the Ark Invest investment fund, Cathie Wood, once again gave a bunch of compliments to digital gold. According to her, Bitcoin is growing relative to gold and is superior to it as a means of hedging risks. Ms. Wood said that Bitcoin allows you to protect your funds in conditions of economic uncertainty. She referred to the events of 2023, when Bitcoin showed sharp growth amid the bankruptcy of three large banks in the United States. In her opinion, investors trust the traditional banking system and fiat money less and less. With the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, investment volumes in the first cryptocurrency will only increase as institutional traders now have an easy and secure way to invest in cryptocurrency. It is worth noting that in the States, 2024 may be quite difficult, although everything in this world is relative. Some experts continue to expect a recession from the American economy, which will certainly lead to increased unemployment and a crisis in the banking segment. Many large companies have announced mass layoffs. Thus, the situation in 2023 may be repeated, when Bitcoin rises against the backdrop of investors fleeing traditional banking investments.At the same time, not all experts believe that Bitcoin will overtake gold. For example, one of the leading Bloomberg analysts, Mike McGlone, believes that market expectations for a Fed rate cut may not affect the value of the first cryptocurrency. It is believed that “tight” monetary policy reduces the demand for risky assets, which includes Bitcoin, but this time the situation may be different. We believe that in any case, the potential Fed rate cut has already been taken into account by the market. Bitcoin has been growing for more than a year, and all this time the Fed rates have either increased or remained at their maximum value. The factor of rate cuts has already been taken into account by the market. On the 24-hour time frame, Bitcoin rolled back slightly, but we believe that the fall will resume, since the market has already fully taken into account the approval of the Bitcoin ETF and is now taking profits on longs. Therefore, we believe that buying now is not advisable, but short positions with a target of $34,267 are yes. Only around the levels of $34,267 and $31,000 will we consider the restoration of the bullish trend.#Write2Earn #TradeNTell

過去 7 天，比特幣報價一直處於局部盤整走勢，交易量極小。在這種情況下，BTCUSD 日線圖上開始形成一個“三角形”，這表明在某個方向上衝動退出的可能性很高。此外，同期，BTC 幣的購買量大幅增加，這再次證實了灰度對測試 38.5k 美元支撐位的關鍵影響。儘管加密貨幣市場的積極性不斷增強，但沒有理由相信比特幣的價格將向上突破“三角形”。此外，該資產並未違反全球下跌趨勢結構，因此下跌的可能性仍然存在。能夠直接影響比特幣價格進一步走勢的一個重要因素將是美聯儲成員關於貨幣政策願景的言論。美聯儲成員講話 在監管機構會議和傑羅姆·鮑威爾的剋制言論之後，由於寬鬆貨幣政策開始的不確定性，市場出現了悲觀情緒。美聯儲主席還指出，從長遠來看，美國正走在一條不可持續的金融道路上，因爲公共債務的增長速度遠遠快於經濟的增長速度。在此類聲明的背景下，投資活動，尤其是加密貨幣市場的投資活動大幅減少。這就是爲什麼投資者將從其他美聯儲成員的講話中尋找希望的曙光。

Currently, the key aspect for cryptocurrency markets is the degree of institutional interest, as this will influence medium-term results. Following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, there was a significant influx of capital. But what about the demand for crypto ETPs? Which alternative coins are still attracting interest from institutional investors? The CoinShares Weekly Report sheds light on these issues. What's with Institutional Interest in Cryptocurrencies Last week, inflows into cryptocurrency investment products amounted to $708 million. Since the start of 2024, total inflows have exceeded $1.6 billion, indicating that the market has moved beyond the negative bear market atmosphere. The total volume of assets under management of cryptocurrency funds has reached the threshold of $53 billion. This is an extremely impressive figure that illustrates the potential of the industry. Trading volumes decreased slightly last week. Weekly volume was $10.6 billion, down from last week's estimated $8.2 billion, but that's not a permanent decline. Especially considering the low average volumes of $1.5 billion in 2023, we can say that this is quite satisfactory. The largest influx of funds was recorded in the United States, where spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched. The inflow of $703 million represented 99% of the total funds flowing into all cryptocurrency funds. Despite the negative price outlook, there was an outflow of $5.3 million from funds shorting Bitcoin.Currently, the key aspect for cryptocurrency markets is the degree of institutional interest, as this will influence medium-term results. Following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, there was a significant influx of capital. But what about the demand for crypto ETPs? Which alternative coins are still attracting interest from institutional investors? The CoinShares Weekly Report sheds light on these issues. What's with Institutional Interest in Cryptocurrencies Last week, inflows into cryptocurrency investment products amounted to $708 million. Since the start of 2024, total inflows have exceeded $1.6 billion, indicating that the market has moved beyond the negative bear market atmosphere. The total volume of assets under management of cryptocurrency funds has reached the threshold of $53 billion. This is an extremely impressive figure that illustrates the potential of the industry. Trading volumes decreased slightly last week. Weekly volume was $10.6 billion, down from last week's estimated $8.2 billion, but that's not a permanent decline. Especially considering the low average volumes of $1.5 billion in 2023, we can say that this is quite satisfactory. The largest influx of funds was recorded in the United States, where spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched. The inflow of $703 million represented 99% of the total funds flowing into all cryptocurrency funds. Despite the negative price outlook, there was an outflow of $5.3 million from funds shorting Bitcoin. The rhetoric of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is a hint at the prospects of Bitcoin. Crypto trader and analyst Ali Martinez drew attention to the statement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He said that the rhetoric creates the preconditions for an optimistic view of Bitcoin. Powell's assertion is based on the belief that the United States is on an unsustainable path with its debt. According to the head of the US central bank, this could lead investors to doubt the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and abandon the US dollar in favor of safer hedges, potentially increasing the shift to Bitcoin. Powell's views underscore the pressing problem of mounting US debt, which is growing faster than the economy. As Ali Martinez notes, this may cause investors to doubt the government's ability to meet its financial obligations. Consequently, there is an increasing likelihood of a massive shift from the US dollar to alternative assets, especially Bitcoin. While Powell highlights the vulnerabilities of the traditional financial system, interest is increasingly focusing on Bitcoin as a potential hedge against economic uncertainty. Investors concerned about the volatile trajectory of US debt may increasingly turn to decentralized digital currencies such as Bitcoin to preserve their wealth. Bitcoin becomes a hedge amid economic uncertainty While the US dollar has long been the world's reserve currency, Powell's warning points to a potential change in that status. The possibility that investors will abandon the dollar in favor of Bitcoin as a hedge from economic instability is becoming increasingly relevant. As the traditional financial environment falters, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin offers an alternative attractive to those seeking financial security. The impending transition from the US dollar to Bitcoin raises an important question: how will it affect the broader financial landscape? Investors who diversify their portfolios with Bitcoin can impact not only the cryptocurrency market, but also traditional financial markets. The dynamics between traditional and digital assets are evolving, and investors are developing strategies to successfully navigate this changing environment. Balancing the Economic Landscape Powell's warning could be a catalyst, reviving interest in Bitcoin. As investors overestimate their vulnerability to risk, volatility in the cryptocurrency market may increase. However, this volatility can provide an opportunity for strategic investors to benefit from market movements and position themselves favorably for economic changes. Powell's statements regarding the instability of the US economy position Bitcoin as an attractive alternative for investors seeking to avoid traditional financial uncertainty. The potential shift from the US dollar to Bitcoin highlights the changing nature of global finance. As investors navigate this economic landscape, they are keeping a close eye on the opportunities created by the intersection of traditional and digital assets. Bitcoin May Remain Sideways Since Bitcoin's price rebounded from levels below $40,000, its price has stabilized and has seen a significant decline in volume. Every time prices rise above $43,000, bearish activity increases, causing the cryptocurrency to return to its original positions. Given the current trading pattern, it appears that Bitcoin price may remain stable within a range for a long time, which could be positive for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin price started February trading in the same range, remaining at $43,000. This has resulted in market equilibrium being maintained and determining the next possible move can be a challenge. Therefore, some analysts suggest that in the coming months the price of Bitcoin may fluctuate in the range from $49,000 to $38,000. In the near future, the price may recover to the $48,000 level after continued stabilization. In addition, it is possible that prices will sharply increase and reach a new historical high in the third or fourth quarter of 2024.#Write2Earn #TradeNTell

加密貨幣交易所 Bitfinex 的一份新報告顯示，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 批准比特幣 ETF 已影響到礦工儲備。這反過來又給主要加密貨幣的價格帶來壓力。隨着資金不斷涌入加密貨幣交易所，比特幣礦工正在出售其資產儲備或利用它們升級產能。他們這樣做的原因是價格上漲以及在減半之前需要實現資本來升級採礦設備。加密貨幣交易所 Bitfinex 的一份新報告顯示，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 批准比特幣 ETF 已影響到礦工儲備。這反過來又給主要加密貨幣的價格帶來壓力。隨着資金繼續涌入加密貨幣交易所，比特幣礦工正在出售其資產儲備或使用它們來升級產能。他們這樣做的原因是價格上漲以及在減半之前實現資本以升級採礦設備的需求。礦工被迫出售比特幣的原因根據該報告，由於公司在 2022 年熊市期間囤積了部分開採的硬幣，礦工資產儲備降至 182.6 萬，爲 2021 年 6 月以來的最低水平。根據分析公司 Glassnode 的數據，1 月 12 日，即 ETF 獲得批准的第二天，價值 10 億美元的開採的 BTC 被轉移到交易所，創下礦工流出量六年來的最高水平。與此同時，在幾隻現貨比特幣 ETF 獲得批准後，比特幣的價格下跌了近 9%。儘管預期情況恰恰相反，但許多分析師將 2023 年第四季度的鉅額資金流入列爲獲批後小幅下跌的原因。然而，在機構方面，市場領頭羊的周度流入量巨大。比特幣淨流出動態 2 月 1 日，Bitfinex 專家指出，交易所礦工的錢包中流出了 13,500 BTC，創下另一項最高負流出記錄。然而，在接下來的 24 小時內，流入量約爲 10,000 BTC，導致自獲批以來淨流出 3,500 BTC 和 10,200 BTC。隨後記錄的流入可能是由於礦業公司在關鍵事件發生前重新平衡頭寸。分析師指出，2023 年的運營流動性、戰略調整和價格上漲是資本淨流出的原因。在熊市週期中，礦業公司遭受了鉅額損失，導致直接出售設備並使用儲備來維持運營。減半影響礦工的決策然而，2023 年記錄的機構投資者的進入引發了有利於礦工的價格走勢，抵消了他們尋求擴張時的損失。“大量 BTC 從礦工轉移到交易所，反映了公司對市場狀況的反應，或許也反映了它們需要清算資產以支付風險管理的運營成本。” 比特幣礦工的儲備流向交易所非常重要，因爲它顯示了礦工在一定時期內積累的 BTC 數量。它也反映了當前的市場狀況，因爲流向交易所通常代表着拋售意向。 即將到來的比特幣減半是最近資產轉移到交易所的一個因素，礦工籌集資金以擴大產能和設備。減半的結果是，獎勵將減少 50%，這將鼓勵比特幣礦工尋找更高效的礦機。 投資者情緒低落可能是牛市的預兆 目前，儘管加密貨幣市場普遍低迷，但流行的在線數據平臺 Santiment 表示，過去一週和本週，市場和投資者中普遍存在下行負面情緒。 Santiment 指出，市場無法有效展現自去年 10 月牛市開始以來交易員已經習慣的看漲模式，這是負面情緒盛行的原因之一。Santiment 表示，對於主要加密貨幣的負面情緒變得更加強烈，並強調這是負面情緒六個多月來首次出現。最後，Santiment 指出，對 BTC、ETH、XRP、BNB、ADA 和 SOL 日益增長的負面情緒背後有一個看漲信號。投資者對一種以上主要加密貨幣表現出焦慮、恐懼或不確定性，表明短期內出現飆升的可能性很高。“本週加密貨幣討論中瀰漫着明顯的看跌情緒，因爲加密貨幣市場價格依然波動，交易員無法表現出自 10 月牛市開始以來他們已經習慣的通常看漲模式。當投資者開始擔心並對少數大型資產表現出不滿時，這表明市場價值更有可能出現反彈。“從歷史上看，市場的發展方向往往出乎人們的意料，導致許多空頭投資者措手不及的反彈。”

在下跌 10,000 美元后，比特幣加密貨幣決定進行小幅調整。我們可以假設，在 24 小時時間範圍內試圖在 Ichimoku 雲下方站穩腳跟的嘗試以失敗告終。Senkou Span B 線的突破發生了，但結果卻是假的。此時，加密貨幣已經觸及 Kijun-sen 線（正如我們預測的那樣），並從那裏反彈，因此可能會恢復下跌。我們認爲下行趨勢尚未完成，正在等待下一輪下跌。與此同時，Marathon Digital 首席執行官 Fred Thiel 在接受採訪時表示，到 2025 年底，比特幣將達到 125,000 美元，其波動性將顯著降低。根據 Thiel 的說法，比特幣將繼續其發展道路，並且每年都會變得更加穩定。Thiel 還認爲比特幣是最好的投資工具，因爲它具有貨幣或股票所沒有的優勢。這個優點是硬幣的供應有限。市場上的比特幣供應量每年都會減少，這將支持其進一步增長。隨後的每次“減半”都意味着礦工的獎勵減半。因此，他們將開採更少的區塊和代幣，市場供應量必然會減少。Thiel 還認爲，現貨比特幣 ETF 的批准將導致機構和大型投資者的投資增加。同時，Thiel 先生認爲，投資比特幣也存在很高的風險。他特別指出，全球地緣政治、美元、美聯儲貨幣政策、通脹等因素繼續影響波動性大的比特幣。由於其波動性增加，許多潛在投資者拒絕購買它。