If voters behave like economists, Harris will win!
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The Oxford Economics' pain index model indicates that if voters focus on the rate of price changes and the relatively low unemployment rate, Harris will defeat Trump.
With just 12 days left in the U.S. presidential campaign, various predictive models are under scrutiny. A widely followed model from FiveThirtyEight currently shows that Republican candidate Trump has a 51% chance of defeating Democratic candidate Harris.
Independent consultancy Oxford Economics provided two finance-centered models during a national economists' club webinar on Thursday.
The company's 'price shock model' predicts that if voters focus on the cumulative rise in goods and services prices during the Biden-Harris administration, Trump will come out on top.
Bernard Yaros, Chief U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics, stated: "If this mindset remains prevalent on election day, our so-called price shock model will show Trump winning the electoral vote with 297 electoral votes."
Another model from Oxford Economics is called the pain index model, which suggests that if voters focus on the rate of price changes and the relatively low unemployment rate, Harris will defeat Trump.
Yaros said: "This model assumes that voters consider inflation more like economists, observing the rate of change in consumer prices. So, if they view inflation from this perspective, they might be more lenient towards Harris, as we have seen prices significantly slow down over the past two years. If this is the case, coupled with the low unemployment rate we still maintain nationally and in various states, Harris will win the electoral vote with 281 electoral votes."
Yaros indicated that his team is not certain about which model is more accurate, but if averaging the two models, Harris is slightly ahead. Overall, the chances for both sides are very close.
The battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives also seems intense, though commentators believe the Republicans have an advantage in the Senate race.
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