There are less than six days left until the September interest rate meeting. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut on the CME Fed Watch has risen sharply from 15% yesterday morning to 45%. Former New York Fed President Dudley also said that it is necessary for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
It seems that a 50 basis point rate cut is indeed possible. However, for the crypto market, the total number of rate cuts in this round of rate cuts will be more important than the magnitude of the first rate cut.
Market Overview: The overall market rebounded with the US stock market, and sentiment has warmed up. US stocks: US stocks rose, investor sentiment was optimistic, and gold prices hit a new high, becoming a new destination for safe-haven funds.
September and October are the best seasons
Yesterday's closing price stood above 58,000, which is both a pressure point with concentrated chips and the daily EMA20. After breaking through, it can basically confirm the bottom of 52,500, that is, the decline from 65,000 to 52,500 is over. The only drawback is that it has an upper shadow and the trading volume has not increased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate for a few days before rising.
BTC 1-hour and 4-hour levels are above healthy levels, and the daily level has returned to a healthy level. It is expected to continue to rise during the day, but if you do not follow up, you can consider following up with altcoins that have not risen significantly and wait for deterministic signals. Expectations for the long cycle have not weakened. The daily support is 56,800-57,300, and the upper resistance is 58,800-59,500. Overall, we are very optimistic about the trend in September and October!
If it is a copycat, the market will most likely hype the "jail concept" next, so you can layout luna, cake
Funding rates show that MANA, GRT and Aave are heavily shorted, and many people are betting that they will fall. But interestingly, according to experience, when there is too much shorting, there is often a rebound. Especially on Binance, the short ratio of these tokens is very high, and it feels like once liquidated, the price may rise rapidly.
Remember a simple trading principle:
1. If there is no breakthrough, there is no breakthrough. Only after the price actually breaks through, can we discuss the market after the breakthrough. Do not make subjective predictions.
2. Don’t try to predict whether the price will break through. Even if there is a real breakthrough, it is difficult for the price to reach the target area directly with one K-line.
Therefore, even after the breakthrough, there will still be many opportunities to make more long orders. The prudent strategy is to wait for the confirmation of the breakthrough before entering the market, rather than betting in advance.
Traders need to understand all the market conditions, but the real way to make money, especially the way to make big money, is often highly fixed and even inconspicuous. The key is to repeatedly polish this fixed pattern to perfection. Only by gradually enlarging the position in a specific pattern and repeatedly executing it without any emotional fluctuations can the goal of making big money be truly achieved. Trying to catch every market condition will only lead to continuous losses.
There is a very important indicator for the future rise and fall of the cryptocurrency market: whether its funds are flowing out. The red line in the picture is the USDT in the cryptocurrency market.
The issuance volume is still in a very healthy upward trend, which is a huge deviation from the current price of 50,000. Therefore, the hot money in the cryptocurrency circle has never left the market and is still pouring in. The current low price is entirely caused by people's panic, waiting and watching outside the market, and not daring to enter the market. When the market breaks through later, these money will go out to buy again.
And Bitcoin also has the capital to move towards higher prices.
Because you see that when the market value of USDT was only about 100 billion, Bitcoin was 74,000. Now it is 120 billion, and Bitcoin has the potential to exceed 90,000. In addition, as we analyzed before, the seller risk index is close to 0, which is the bottom of the big cycle, so I think the remaining weeks of September will be the final wash, and by October, all problems will not be a problem!
To put it bluntly, you can just look at it this way (don’t scold me, I can’t scold you anyway)
BTC has an endogenous and constant 4-year halving cycle. Taking the halving as an anchor point, the 4 years can be named "half-year halving" (0), "bull market year" (+1), "bear market year" (+2) and "recovery year" (-1).
remind:
Many people have recently bought FB to play Cat, and the gas fee is getting higher and higher. After playing it out in a few days, it is estimated that Cat will have a big waterfall. Those with low gas will take profits and exit, and those with high gas will experience a 50% cut. FB may also follow a small correction. At that time, buying Cat or FB is very cost-effective.
