On Thursday, the European Central Bank cut interest rates, with the interest rate resolution showing that the deposit facility rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 3.5%, and the main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate were both lowered by 60 basis points to 3.65% and 3.9%, respectively. Gold hit a record high of $2,550 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.5%.
Back to the topic:
The European Banking Authority (EBA) expects that by the end of 2024, 15 technical standards will be officially released, including standards for stablecoin issuers. These standards are based on the technical requirements under the EU Crypto-Asset Markets Act (MiCA), covering authorization, stress testing, and methods for estimating the number and value of transactions. After the standards are finalized, they will be reviewed, translated and formally adopted by the European Parliament and the European Council, and will eventually be published in the Official Journal of the European Union. The British government has proposed a landmark move in Parliament, which aims to clarify the legal status of digital assets (including BTC and other cryptocurrencies and NFTs) and treat them as personal property under English and Welsh law. Once passed, the bill will create a third category of personal property, beyond the current classification of "possessions" and "walking animals", and provide it with clear legal recognition and protection. Heidi Alexander, director of justice, said that the law must keep up with evolving technology, and this legislation means that the industry can maintain its global leadership in the field of crypto assets and bring clarity to complex property cases. ARK Invest increased its holdings of Coinbase shares by $8.44 million on September 11. Australia's Monochrome spot BTC ETF held 136 BTC as of the 11th of the month. ETH co-founder Vitalik Buterin responded to netizens' suggestions to stop selling ETH, saying that the ETH sale yesterday was initiated by a biodefense organization funded by him, and the last time-weighted order has been triggered. Mining company Marathon Digital Holdings announced that its BTC holdings increased to 26,200 BTC.
DefiLlama data shows that the total market value of stablecoins reached $170.29 billion, a new high since May 2022, with a 7-day increase of 0.52%. On September 11, Swift announced the launch of a global infrastructure plan to simplify the transfer of tokenized assets and allow members to use the Swift network to trade traditional and emerging assets, including cryptocurrencies. Swift's move focuses on global transactions of real-world assets (RWA), a market expected to reach $30 trillion by 2034. The global tokenized asset industry faces interoperability issues, causing different RWA efforts to become digital islands, mainly due to the lack of a global unified form of digital currency. Analyst Willy Woo said that in the short term: the timing signal is a bullish volatility of 1-3 weeks. Medium-term: Since the halving in April, the supply and demand relationship has been bearish, but a reversal pattern may have begun to appear in the past 4 weeks (not yet confirmed), and it will take more time for BTC to break through the all-time high. Macro: Risk signals confirm lower lows. BTC is not in a bear market, but waiting in a re-accumulation mode. On Thursday, the European Central Bank announced its interest rate decision, with the deposit mechanism rate cut by 25 basis points to 3.5%, and the main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate both cut by 60 basis points to 3.65% and 3.9% respectively. ECB President Lagarde said: The downward trend in interest rates is very obvious; lower inflation data will be released in September; there is no form of pre-commitment for the October meeting; inflation will fall to 2% during 2025. On Thursday, the U.S. released inflation data showing: the producer price index PPI in August was 1.7%, the expected value and the previous value were 1.8% and 2.1% respectively; the monthly rate of PPI in August was 0.2%, the expected value and the previous value were 0.1% and 0% respectively; the annual rate of core PPI in August was 2.4%, the expected value and the previous value were 2.5% and 2.4% respectively.
The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in August was 230,000, in line with expectations of 230,000 and higher than the previous value of 228,000. After the release of the PPI data, the interest rate swap market remained stable, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points this year. Gold hit a record high of $2,550 per ounce, up 1.5% on the day, the Nasdaq index rose 0.4%, the big cake hit $58,500, and the US dollar index fell 0.16%. An IMF spokesman said: The upside risks to US inflation have weakened, and it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to start a monetary easing cycle next week. Strategist Ole Hansen said: Recent data is enough to push gold prices to a record high, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon start a rate cut cycle are growing. Blackstone Group said it is "cautiously optimistic about a soft landing in the United States", betting that the Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation will not trigger a recession, and seeing signs of a return in the trading market, if these trends continue, it may lead to a fairly strong market in 2025 in particular. Once the Fed starts cutting interest rates, the debate will revolve around the subsequent pace of easing. Previous scenario: Bitcoin has experienced a small bull market twice at the end of the year. At the end of 2022, it rose from $15,000 to $25,000 (stimulated by the expectation of interest rate cuts in the following year), and at the end of 2023, it rose to $50,000 (stimulated by the expectation of interest rate cuts in the following year and spot ETFs). At the end of 2024, it was also stimulated by the expectation of interest rate cuts in the following year. At present, the market expects a 250 basis point interest rate cut to below 3% next year. The neutral interest rate between 2-3% has a very obvious effect of flooding. The depreciation of the US dollar will push up the price of risky assets denominated in US dollars, which is enough to support the stock market/currency market/gold price in this cycle. #美降息25个基点预期升温 #灰度将推出首个美国XRP信托 #美国经济软着陆？
