On November 5, voting for the U.S. election was underway, with all three major U.S. stock indexes rising more than 1% during the trading session, with the Nasdaq index up 1.4% and gold prices up 0.2%. Typically, results are announced on election night local time, which would be around noon or afternoon Beijing time on November 6; alternatively, if counting in swing states is delayed, results may be announced days later; if the losing party contests the results, it may lead to recounts and legal lawsuits, with results potentially revealed weeks after election day.
Returning to the topic:
On November 5, the small town of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire announced the voting results of 6 registered voters, with Harris and Trump tied at 3 votes each. At midnight Eastern Time on November 5, voters in Dixville Notch were the first to start voting, marking the official start of the 60th U.S. presidential election voting. A poll conducted by The Hill and Emerson College showed that on November 4, Harris and Trump had roughly equal support in key swing states for the U.S. election. Trump held an advantage in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, while Harris had the advantage in Michigan, with both candidates having equal support in Nevada and Wisconsin. On November 5, Trump maintained a lead in the probability of winning on two prediction platforms: Trump had a 58.9% winning chance on Polymarket, ahead of Harris's 41.1%; Trump had a 56% winning chance on Kalshi, ahead of Harris's 44%. On November 5, the MtGox address successively transferred out 32,371 BTC and 2,000 BTC. ARKF increased its holdings of Coinbase stock by $4.5 million on November 4. Coinshares' weekly report showed that last week, net inflows to digital asset investment products reached $2.2 billion, bringing the total inflows for the year to a record $29.2 billion. The publicly listed medical company Semler Scientific reported its third-quarter earnings, revealing that it currently holds 1,058 BTC, with a total cost of $71 million.
Deutsche Telekom, Europe's largest telecommunications service provider, announced a new BTC mining project that utilizes excess electricity from renewable energy, developed in collaboration with Deutsche Telekom's subsidiary MMS and Metzer Bank. Traditional financial giants Citibank and Fidelity jointly launched a proof of concept for digital foreign exchange swaps, aiming to trade within on-chain money market funds (MMFs) to enhance global financial market efficiency. QCP analysis noted that the battle between Harris and Trump has become a stalemate. Currently, Polymarket still leans towards Trump, giving him a 55% chance of winning, but this is a significant decrease from the 66% a week ago. The options market has observed a large amount of buying of $75,000 call options since last Friday. If Trump wins, it could trigger a rapid price surge; conversely, if Harris wins, the market may decline. A Bitfine report indicated that after experiencing eight months of fluctuations, BTC nearly broke its historical high last week but then encountered a severe pullback. This rebound was initially driven by the 'Trump trade' narrative, but was later affected by uncertainty regarding the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. As election day approaches, the market generally believes that Trump is favorable for BTC. Current market dynamics indicate that the upcoming week will be very noteworthy, and the road to election day is bound to be eventful. On November 4, U.S. BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $540.91 million, marking the second-largest net outflow since the ETF's launch; the U.S. spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of $63.2 million.
The Michigan pension fund disclosed its position in Grayscale's ETH spot ETF, valued at approximately $10 million, becoming the first such pension fund since the ETH-based financial instrument was launched in July. On November 5, as voting for the U.S. election was underway, the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose more than 1% during the trading session, with the Nasdaq index up 1.4%, gold prices up 0.2%, and BTC rebounding to around $70,000. Analyst James Van Straten stated that as the results of the election are awaited, the crypto market may remain volatile, impacting price trends in the short term. Once the situation stabilizes, if previous election patterns repeat, BTC may experience a significant rebound. BTC is facing its fourth U.S. election, and data shows that after the past three elections, BTC has always rebounded, never falling back to the election day's price. If this trend occurs again, BTC's price should peak at around $100,000 within about a year. A report from JPMorgan Wealth Management noted that after the election, stock market volatility may increase. Since 1984, there has only been one year when the market declined in the 12 months following the election, which was in 2000, during the tech bubble burst. Citigroup analysts indicated that elections tend to have a significant impact on market trends before voting, but traders this year seem more focused on other factors such as the U.S. economy and earnings season. As in previous years, the stock market is likely to rebound after the election, as most companies reported robust earnings in the latest earnings season. The current market positioning makes it very likely for the stock market to rebound after the voting on November 5 and potentially reach new highs in the new year.
Analysts at Bernstein Research and Brokerage predict that the main drivers of BTC are the U.S. fiscal irresponsibility, record debt levels, and monetary expansion, which are driving demand for hard assets. The success of the U.S. spot BTC ETF further accelerates this trend, and there remains ample growth potential, making it difficult to reverse this process. The price target for BTC by the end of 2025 remains $200,000, regardless of the election results. As of now, U.S. polls have not shown a clear 'one-sided' tendency. As of November 4, the U.S. polling website RealClearPolitics shows that Trump's and Harris's polling support rates are 48.5% and 48.4%, respectively. On Tuesday, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) rose 16% during trading. Regarding the timing of the election results, typically, the results are announced on election night local time, which would be around noon or afternoon Beijing time on November 6; alternatively, if counting in swing states is delayed, results may be announced days later; if the losing party contests the results, it may lead to recounts and legal lawsuits, with results potentially revealed weeks after election day. The crypto market is more interested in Trump, with analysts believing that Trump can provide a boost to the bull market. Trump advocates for the so-called 'revitalization of the economy, curbing recession, and extending tax cuts,' etc. This is BTC's fourth U.S. election, and in the past three elections, BTC has rebounded and peaked a year later. In this election, BTC is still rebounding. On election day, the U.S. stock market and BTC rebounded. Currently, polling results show no significant inclination between Harris and Trump's winning probabilities (prediction markets indicate Trump's winning probability is about 55%). There isn't much to write about today; let's wait for tomorrow's election results.
