As for the selling side, there are two key sources of selling: 1. Bitcoin seized by the German government; 2. Bitcoin paid by Mt.Gox to creditors.
The German government may be the biggest force in the short-term market crash, and it is crucial when it stops reducing its positions. The German government has seized a total of 50,300 bitcoins, and transferred a total of about 8,080 bitcoins from June 19 to July 5. The current remaining holdings are 42,270 BTC, and there are still 83.94% of the holdings that have not been sold. Whether this part will continue to be sold in large quantities in the short term is still in doubt, and there is still a lot of uncertainty about the selling pressure.
As for Mt.Gox, the selling pressure may be much lower than market expectations. It is expected to compensate creditors with 142,000 bitcoins. According to the Japanese crypto community, more than 70% of the claims may have been transferred through several rounds of OTC and acquired by institutional buyers. This part of the acquired bitcoins is not expected to bring a lot of selling pressure. The remaining 30% of bitcoins that will bring about large-scale selling pressure total about 40,000 to 50,000 bitcoins. According to on-chain data monitoring, Mt. Gox has transferred out about 50,000 bitcoins today, July 5, of which 1,544 were transferred to the exchange, and 47,228.7 bitcoins were transferred to a new address starting with 1L7Xbx, and there has been no further movement. On the whole, the actual selling pressure generated by Mt. Gox may be lower than market expectations.
Potential miners' selling has also become an influencing factor in this round of decline, but this part of the selling is in line with the market and is expected to stop as Bitcoin stops falling.
In summary, buying is based on long-term positives, and selling is due to emotional panic caused by special events. We believe that this unrepeatable event will bring buying opportunities to investors who are optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term.
