LIVE演武东
@yanwudong
2017年入圈，链上数据研究员 ，推特同名
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Sudden good news!!!
BitMEX exchange has seen a large outflow of BTC for two consecutive days, the second largest net outflow of BTC in the exchange's history, with 22,956 outflows on the first day, 12,530 outflows on the second day, and a total outflow of 35,486 in two days
BitMEX has a great influence in the cryptocurrency derivatives market, so this large-scale BTC transfer is usually seen as bullish behavior. The whales transfer their BTC to cold wallets, indicating that they are optimistic about the future market development and reducing the selling pressure on the exchange.
And this behavior will increase social media attention, further boost investor optimism, and promote the rise in Bitcoin prices.
#BTC☀ #BTC走势预测
BitMEX exchange has seen a large outflow of BTC for two consecutive days, the second largest net outflow of BTC in the exchange's history, with 22,956 outflows on the first day, 12,530 outflows on the second day, and a total outflow of 35,486 in two days
BitMEX has a great influence in the cryptocurrency derivatives market, so this large-scale BTC transfer is usually seen as bullish behavior. The whales transfer their BTC to cold wallets, indicating that they are optimistic about the future market development and reducing the selling pressure on the exchange.
And this behavior will increase social media attention, further boost investor optimism, and promote the rise in Bitcoin prices.
#BTC☀ #BTC走势预测
See original
I had dinner with two good friends today, and they each made an important investment decision.
Friend A decided to spend 200,000 yuan to buy a house (92 square meters in Jinan, Shandong, total price 1 million yuan, 20% down payment, married)
Friend B decided to spend 200,000 yuan to buy BTC (no house, average BTC purchase price 62,147 US dollars)
Both parties disagreed with each other's investment. Friend A thought BTC was a Ponzi scheme and the country did not recognize it; Friend B thought that the house price would drop further, and taking out a loan to buy a house was equivalent to a 5x leverage for 30 years, which was too risky.
Seeing that both parties were about to get angry, I came up with an idea. With me as a witness, the two parties reached a verbal agreement, which we will call "Unreliable Forward Yield Swap Agreement" for the time being.
One year later Today, we will come here again to execute the agreement; the agreement is roughly as follows: if both parties lose money after one year, each party will bear the consequences. If one party makes a profit, the profitable party will give 10% of the profit to the other party. If both parties make a profit, they will exchange 10% of their respective profits with the other party.
As a witness, I am responsible for the smooth execution of the agreement and will receive a 1% profit reward from the party with more profits after successful execution.
In my opinion, both parties have no problem with their character. As long as one party makes a profit, I will get a reward.
I hope you can witness it with me, so I decided to take out 100U for a lottery. Just comment "I witness + Binance ID", and I will directly transfer 10U to your account through Binance ID after one year, only for the top 10 comments #币安合约锦标赛 #BTC☀ $BTC
Friend A decided to spend 200,000 yuan to buy a house (92 square meters in Jinan, Shandong, total price 1 million yuan, 20% down payment, married)
Friend B decided to spend 200,000 yuan to buy BTC (no house, average BTC purchase price 62,147 US dollars)
Both parties disagreed with each other's investment. Friend A thought BTC was a Ponzi scheme and the country did not recognize it; Friend B thought that the house price would drop further, and taking out a loan to buy a house was equivalent to a 5x leverage for 30 years, which was too risky.
Seeing that both parties were about to get angry, I came up with an idea. With me as a witness, the two parties reached a verbal agreement, which we will call "Unreliable Forward Yield Swap Agreement" for the time being.
One year later Today, we will come here again to execute the agreement; the agreement is roughly as follows: if both parties lose money after one year, each party will bear the consequences. If one party makes a profit, the profitable party will give 10% of the profit to the other party. If both parties make a profit, they will exchange 10% of their respective profits with the other party.
As a witness, I am responsible for the smooth execution of the agreement and will receive a 1% profit reward from the party with more profits after successful execution.
In my opinion, both parties have no problem with their character. As long as one party makes a profit, I will get a reward.
I hope you can witness it with me, so I decided to take out 100U for a lottery. Just comment "I witness + Binance ID", and I will directly transfer 10U to your account through Binance ID after one year, only for the top 10 comments #币安合约锦标赛 #BTC☀ $BTC
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Today's little-known fact
Today is June 24th, which is not only twice the value of March 12th, but also the 519th day of the lunar calendar
Dead bulls are trembling while guarding their positions
I have never trembled so fast in bed
$BTC
$ETH
#美国PCE数据将公布 #美联储何时降息？ #BTC☀
Today is June 24th, which is not only twice the value of March 12th, but also the 519th day of the lunar calendar
Dead bulls are trembling while guarding their positions
I have never trembled so fast in bed
$BTC
$ETH
#美国PCE数据将公布 #美联储何时降息？ #BTC☀
LIVE演武东
--
Why Hold Bitcoin
Although Bitcoin is experiencing painful sideways fluctuations, it is still the best performing investment target this year. I will analyze why you should hold Bitcoin from a macro perspective and personal reasons. Chinese investors must read this!
Macro level
1. Interest rate cut cycle
The inflation of the US economy is coming to an end, and the market is sounding the horn of easing.
In early June, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 0.25%, the first time since the outbreak.
Although the Fed said that whether to cut interest rates this year depends on economic data, this is a positive in itself. What he discussed was when to cut interest rates, not when to raise them.
Macro level
1. Interest rate cut cycle
The inflation of the US economy is coming to an end, and the market is sounding the horn of easing.
In early June, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 0.25%, the first time since the outbreak.
Although the Fed said that whether to cut interest rates this year depends on economic data, this is a positive in itself. What he discussed was when to cut interest rates, not when to raise them.
See original
Why Hold Bitcoin
Although Bitcoin is experiencing painful sideways fluctuations, it is still the best performing investment target this year. I will analyze why you should hold Bitcoin from a macro perspective and personal reasons. Chinese investors must read this!
Macro level
1. Interest rate cut cycle
The inflation of the US economy is coming to an end, and the market is sounding the horn of easing.
In early June, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 0.25%, the first time since the outbreak.
Although the Fed said that whether to cut interest rates this year depends on economic data, this is a positive in itself. What he discussed was when to cut interest rates, not when to raise them.
Macro level
1. Interest rate cut cycle
The inflation of the US economy is coming to an end, and the market is sounding the horn of easing.
In early June, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 0.25%, the first time since the outbreak.
Although the Fed said that whether to cut interest rates this year depends on economic data, this is a positive in itself. What he discussed was when to cut interest rates, not when to raise them.
See original
Shock!!!
BTC will break through $120,000 in October and $250,000 one year after the halving. The bull market may reach a maximum of more than $1 million!!!
Everyone knows that the economy has cycles. The traditional economy is divided into prosperity, recession, depression and recovery according to the Merrill Lynch clock; Bitcoin is no exception. The most obvious time point to distinguish the economic cycle of Bitcoin is halving. Bitcoin is halved every 4 years, which has a profound impact on the balance of Bitcoin supply and demand, market psychology and price trends. Therefore, each round of halving will produce a round of economic cycle.
Today we will compare the performance after each halving to predict the trend of this cycle
Everyone knows that the economy has cycles. The traditional economy is divided into prosperity, recession, depression and recovery according to the Merrill Lynch clock; Bitcoin is no exception. The most obvious time point to distinguish the economic cycle of Bitcoin is halving. Bitcoin is halved every 4 years, which has a profound impact on the balance of Bitcoin supply and demand, market psychology and price trends. Therefore, each round of halving will produce a round of economic cycle.
Today we will compare the performance after each halving to predict the trend of this cycle
See original
Trending
Online loan of 50,000 RMB went bankrupt!!
After so many years in the industry, I am used to seeing ETH plummet, but this is the first time I have seen a daily increase of more than 20%. I always feel uneasy, as if there is some conspiracy. On the contrary, the increase of BTC is very comfortable.
From the perspective of annual growth today, the most impressive one is SOL, which has increased by 8 times, while BTC and ETH have also increased by more than 100%, completely outperforming traditional assets.
昨天的发文
I believe everyone has benefited from this wave of profits. Even if you are not on the train, you should not short it.
There are still people shorting in this market. A friend in the group borrowed 50,000 yuan online and shorted 100 times. He was directly robbed. This is not to speculate on the currency, this is to do charity
After seven years in the industry, I have witnessed too many short-lived successes
From the perspective of annual growth today, the most impressive one is SOL, which has increased by 8 times, while BTC and ETH have also increased by more than 100%, completely outperforming traditional assets.
昨天的发文
I believe everyone has benefited from this wave of profits. Even if you are not on the train, you should not short it.
There are still people shorting in this market. A friend in the group borrowed 50,000 yuan online and shorted 100 times. He was directly robbed. This is not to speculate on the currency, this is to do charity
After seven years in the industry, I have witnessed too many short-lived successes
See original
Reversal!!!
I used to sympathize with Fat Cat, but today, after seeing the records released by the police, I no longer sympathize with him. From some details revealed by the police, it can be seen that Fat Cat is not as mature as his girlfriend, and is an emotionally unstable person who tends to go to extremes. With such a mindset, he may be the next Liang Xi in the cryptocurrency circle
Back to the market, before the BTC halving, I predicted the maximum drop of the fourth halving
As shown in the figure below, I predicted a rational drop of -21.87% (calculated from the highest point of BTC), price: $57,600; emotional drop of -29.84%, price: around $51,800.
When the price fell below $57,000 on May 1st, there was no panic selling in the market, and I immediately sent a signal to get on the train. At present, it is correct. The price did not fall to the emotional level, indicating that the market is no longer dominated by retail investors, but by institutions; the era of high volatility and wild growth of BTC is over.
From the data on the chain, the price of Bitcoin fell below the realized price of short-term holders at $57,000. This point is an important support level in the bull market correction and the best point to get on the train. The market trend also confirms this. The current price has broken through this indicator and formed an upward trend. In the short term, it is difficult for us to see such an opportunity again.
Can I still get on the train now?
The best opportunity to get on the train was 20 days ago, and the second best opportunity is now. The big bull trend has been formed and is ready to go. The selling pressure of old chips has been exhausted, and institutional funds continue to flow in. This is a trend that a three-year-old child can see. If you see 2025, it is still not too late to buy now. Even if you don’t want to buy, don’t short, let alone short with leverage.
Don’t get too excited! Don’t get too excited! Don’t get too excited!
After seven years in the circle, I have witnessed too many short-lived things.
In the currency circle, if you want to go far and live long, emotional stability is very important. I hope everyone can walk out with a smile.
I will monitor the on-chain data indicators and key nodes every day and share them with you. If you are interested in on-chain data analysis, please follow me and exchange and learn together.
30% is determined by fate, 70% depends on the pie
$BTC #机构积极投资比特币ETF #BTC Trend analysis #BTC
I used to sympathize with Fat Cat, but today, after seeing the records released by the police, I no longer sympathize with him. From some details revealed by the police, it can be seen that Fat Cat is not as mature as his girlfriend, and is an emotionally unstable person who tends to go to extremes. With such a mindset, he may be the next Liang Xi in the cryptocurrency circle
Back to the market, before the BTC halving, I predicted the maximum drop of the fourth halving
As shown in the figure below, I predicted a rational drop of -21.87% (calculated from the highest point of BTC), price: $57,600; emotional drop of -29.84%, price: around $51,800.
When the price fell below $57,000 on May 1st, there was no panic selling in the market, and I immediately sent a signal to get on the train. At present, it is correct. The price did not fall to the emotional level, indicating that the market is no longer dominated by retail investors, but by institutions; the era of high volatility and wild growth of BTC is over.
From the data on the chain, the price of Bitcoin fell below the realized price of short-term holders at $57,000. This point is an important support level in the bull market correction and the best point to get on the train. The market trend also confirms this. The current price has broken through this indicator and formed an upward trend. In the short term, it is difficult for us to see such an opportunity again.
Can I still get on the train now?
The best opportunity to get on the train was 20 days ago, and the second best opportunity is now. The big bull trend has been formed and is ready to go. The selling pressure of old chips has been exhausted, and institutional funds continue to flow in. This is a trend that a three-year-old child can see. If you see 2025, it is still not too late to buy now. Even if you don’t want to buy, don’t short, let alone short with leverage.
Don’t get too excited! Don’t get too excited! Don’t get too excited!
After seven years in the circle, I have witnessed too many short-lived things.
In the currency circle, if you want to go far and live long, emotional stability is very important. I hope everyone can walk out with a smile.
I will monitor the on-chain data indicators and key nodes every day and share them with you. If you are interested in on-chain data analysis, please follow me and exchange and learn together.
30% is determined by fate, 70% depends on the pie
$BTC #机构积极投资比特币ETF #BTC Trend analysis #BTC
LIVE演武东
--
Notice !!!
You will regret it if you don't read it: There are 3 days and 16 hours left before the fourth Bitcoin halving. The halving will have a huge impact on its price, and global crypto investors are nervously watching this important event. Today, Gua Ge spent 6 hours analyzing in detail the impact of previous halvings on Bitcoin prices, and predicted the decline in this round of halving, the maximum decline point, the trend one month after halving, and the trend one year later.
The impact of previous halvings on Bitcoin prices
The first halving had basically no pullback, and it rose 13 points after the halving, and ushered in a crazy bull market 48 days after the halving.
The impact of previous halvings on Bitcoin prices
The first halving had basically no pullback, and it rose 13 points after the halving, and ushered in a crazy bull market 48 days after the halving.
See original
BTC is about to usher in a crazy bull market
After two months of game, the CDD index fell to a low level of fluctuation, indicating that the selling pressure brought by the old chips is coming to an end. ETF has been in a net buying state for the past two days. The market has returned to the buyer's dominance and is about to start a bull market
When BTC fell below 57,000, I had clearly called for getting on the train and set an example by firing all the bullets
I have been buying from the beginning of last year to now, and I am worried every day. What I am worried about is not the rise, but the lack of callback strength. I have not been able to trigger the buy signal. The bullets in my hand can't be fired. Now I have finally bought it and feel relieved
The next step is to wait. I expect to hold a full position until next year until the sell signal is triggered
I will monitor the on-chain data indicators and key nodes every day, and share them with you. If you are interested in on-chain data analysis, please follow me and communicate and learn together
#机构积极投资比特币ETF #BTC走势分析
After two months of game, the CDD index fell to a low level of fluctuation, indicating that the selling pressure brought by the old chips is coming to an end. ETF has been in a net buying state for the past two days. The market has returned to the buyer's dominance and is about to start a bull market
When BTC fell below 57,000, I had clearly called for getting on the train and set an example by firing all the bullets
I have been buying from the beginning of last year to now, and I am worried every day. What I am worried about is not the rise, but the lack of callback strength. I have not been able to trigger the buy signal. The bullets in my hand can't be fired. Now I have finally bought it and feel relieved
The next step is to wait. I expect to hold a full position until next year until the sell signal is triggered
I will monitor the on-chain data indicators and key nodes every day, and share them with you. If you are interested in on-chain data analysis, please follow me and communicate and learn together
#机构积极投资比特币ETF #BTC走势分析
LIVE演武东
--
Get on board now
————————
The realized price of short-term holders in the bull market is an important support level for the coin price correction
The current realized price is $58,700
The market price is $57,120
————————
Four rounds of bull market, dozens of verifications (detailed analysis in the article)
100 days later, you will thank me
$BTC #BTC回调才会更好的上涨
————————
The realized price of short-term holders in the bull market is an important support level for the coin price correction
The current realized price is $58,700
The market price is $57,120
————————
Four rounds of bull market, dozens of verifications (detailed analysis in the article)
100 days later, you will thank me
$BTC #BTC回调才会更好的上涨
See original
When Bitcoin fell below 57,000 and the big Vs on the platform were all bearish, I was the first to clearly call for people to get on board. How many friends are on board? Please give me a thumbs up.
I monitor the data indicators and key nodes on the chain every day and share them with you.
$BTC #BTC走势分析
I monitor the data indicators and key nodes on the chain every day and share them with you.
$BTC #BTC走势分析
LIVE演武东
--
Get on board now
————————
The realized price of short-term holders in the bull market is an important support level for the coin price correction
The current realized price is $58,700
The market price is $57,120
————————
Four rounds of bull market, dozens of verifications (detailed analysis in the article)
100 days later, you will thank me
$BTC #BTC回调才会更好的上涨
————————
The realized price of short-term holders in the bull market is an important support level for the coin price correction
The current realized price is $58,700
The market price is $57,120
————————
Four rounds of bull market, dozens of verifications (detailed analysis in the article)
100 days later, you will thank me
$BTC #BTC回调才会更好的上涨
See original
Get on board now
————————
The realized price of short-term holders in the bull market is an important support level for the coin price correction
The current realized price is $58,700
The market price is $57,120
————————
Four rounds of bull market, dozens of verifications (detailed analysis in the article)
100 days later, you will thank me
$BTC #BTC回调才会更好的上涨
————————
The realized price of short-term holders in the bull market is an important support level for the coin price correction
The current realized price is $58,700
The market price is $57,120
————————
Four rounds of bull market, dozens of verifications (detailed analysis in the article)
100 days later, you will thank me
$BTC #BTC回调才会更好的上涨
LIVE演武东
--
Stimulate! ! !
Mad Cow Quotes
I posted an article last week saying that the market has not yet entered a mad bull market and may pull back, and I was immediately criticized.
The market proved me right. The picture below shows the price trend of Bitcoin before and after the previous halvings.
Judging from previous cycles, the mad bull market is after the Bitcoin halving.
Before that, due to market speculation about the halving, there would be a correction during the halving.
Ranked first in the world in trading volume
Today a friend asked me if the bull market is over. ETFs have had net outflows for three consecutive days.
Gua Ge believes that this is a normal correction. The average holding price of ETFs investors is 51,000, with a profit of 35%.
Traditional investors have never seen such a fast way to make money. It is normal to sell at a profit.
I posted an article last week saying that the market has not yet entered a mad bull market and may pull back, and I was immediately criticized.
The market proved me right. The picture below shows the price trend of Bitcoin before and after the previous halvings.
Judging from previous cycles, the mad bull market is after the Bitcoin halving.
Before that, due to market speculation about the halving, there would be a correction during the halving.
Ranked first in the world in trading volume
Today a friend asked me if the bull market is over. ETFs have had net outflows for three consecutive days.
Gua Ge believes that this is a normal correction. The average holding price of ETFs investors is 51,000, with a profit of 35%.
Traditional investors have never seen such a fast way to make money. It is normal to sell at a profit.
See original
Trending
Notice !!!
You will regret it if you don't read it: There are 3 days and 16 hours left before the fourth Bitcoin halving. The halving will have a huge impact on its price, and global crypto investors are nervously watching this important event. Today, Gua Ge spent 6 hours analyzing in detail the impact of previous halvings on Bitcoin prices, and predicted the decline in this round of halving, the maximum decline point, the trend one month after halving, and the trend one year later.
The impact of previous halvings on Bitcoin prices
The first halving had basically no pullback, and it rose 13 points after the halving, and ushered in a crazy bull market 48 days after the halving.
The impact of previous halvings on Bitcoin prices
The first halving had basically no pullback, and it rose 13 points after the halving, and ushered in a crazy bull market 48 days after the halving.
See original
LIVE演武东
--
what to do! ! !
Keep buying, buying, buying
Why am I still buying at this price? Because I am afraid of being short. I have experienced the last bull market. When you see others making money, you can only watch. It feels very painful. Therefore, I am willing to bear a short-term 30% correction in this bull market. , and don’t want to be empty
The most confusing thing right now is how to buy
I have two dimensions, one is the time dimension. From the historical cycle, in the month when BTC is halved, the market will be relatively stable, and then there will be a mad cow market, so I want to finish my bullets this month.
The other is the price dimension: My ideal entry price is $56,000. This price is the average price of short-term holders on the chain, and it has been a very strong support level in previous bull market corrections.
Why am I still buying at this price? Because I am afraid of being short. I have experienced the last bull market. When you see others making money, you can only watch. It feels very painful. Therefore, I am willing to bear a short-term 30% correction in this bull market. , and don’t want to be empty
The most confusing thing right now is how to buy
I have two dimensions, one is the time dimension. From the historical cycle, in the month when BTC is halved, the market will be relatively stable, and then there will be a mad cow market, so I want to finish my bullets this month.
The other is the price dimension: My ideal entry price is $56,000. This price is the average price of short-term holders on the chain, and it has been a very strong support level in previous bull market corrections.
See original
BTC Under Fire: An In-depth Analysis of the Impact of War on Cryptocurrency
In the early hours of this morning, Iran launched an airstrike on Israel, causing a sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin. In two hours, the price of Bitcoin dropped from $67,077 to $60,500, a drop of 9.8%. War events are often seen as uncertain factors in the market. It is necessary for us to review the impact of the previous Russian-Ukrainian war on Bitcoin. Analyzing the behavior patterns of investors based on on-chain data can provide a clearer understanding of market trends.
In the early morning of February 24, 2022, Putin announced the official launch of a "special operation" to invade Ukraine from the east, south, north, and northeast. BTC fell from $38,710 in the early morning to $34,322 at 1 pm, with a maximum drop of 11.3%;
In the early morning of February 24, 2022, Putin announced the official launch of a "special operation" to invade Ukraine from the east, south, north, and northeast. BTC fell from $38,710 in the early morning to $34,322 at 1 pm, with a maximum drop of 11.3%;
See original
Mad Cow Quotes
I posted an article last week saying that the market has not yet entered a mad bull market and may pull back, and I was immediately criticized.
The market proved me right. The picture below shows the price trend of Bitcoin before and after the previous halvings.
Judging from previous cycles, the mad bull market is after the Bitcoin halving.
Before that, due to market speculation about the halving, there would be a correction at the halving#大盘走势 #BTC $BTC
I posted an article last week saying that the market has not yet entered a mad bull market and may pull back, and I was immediately criticized.
The market proved me right. The picture below shows the price trend of Bitcoin before and after the previous halvings.
Judging from previous cycles, the mad bull market is after the Bitcoin halving.
Before that, due to market speculation about the halving, there would be a correction at the halving#大盘走势 #BTC $BTC
LIVE演武东
--
Stimulate! ! !
Mad Cow Quotes
I posted an article last week saying that the market has not yet entered a mad bull market and may pull back, and I was immediately criticized.
The market proved me right. The picture below shows the price trend of Bitcoin before and after the previous halvings.
Judging from previous cycles, the mad bull market is after the Bitcoin halving.
Before that, due to market speculation about the halving, there would be a correction during the halving.
Ranked first in the world in trading volume
Today a friend asked me if the bull market is over. ETFs have had net outflows for three consecutive days.
Gua Ge believes that this is a normal correction. The average holding price of ETFs investors is 51,000, with a profit of 35%.
Traditional investors have never seen such a fast way to make money. It is normal to sell at a profit.
I posted an article last week saying that the market has not yet entered a mad bull market and may pull back, and I was immediately criticized.
The market proved me right. The picture below shows the price trend of Bitcoin before and after the previous halvings.
Judging from previous cycles, the mad bull market is after the Bitcoin halving.
Before that, due to market speculation about the halving, there would be a correction during the halving.
Ranked first in the world in trading volume
Today a friend asked me if the bull market is over. ETFs have had net outflows for three consecutive days.
Gua Ge believes that this is a normal correction. The average holding price of ETFs investors is 51,000, with a profit of 35%.
Traditional investors have never seen such a fast way to make money. It is normal to sell at a profit.
See original
Bitcoin’s fall is the result of market gaming
In my article "The sky is going to change!" ! ! 》For the first time, it was proposed that long-term holders are accelerating selling, and the market has entered a game pattern between traditional institutions and currency circle institutions.
Bitcoin fell 5 points today, look at who is selling from two on-chain indicators
Figure 1 shows the ratio of the number of days coins are destroyed to the total Bitcoin supply. For example, if a Bitcoin is held for 200 days and sold, it means 200 coin days were destroyed. It can be simply understood that the higher the indicator value, the more long-term holders sell. , on the contrary, the smaller it is, it is currently 1.6, which is twice the average and higher than the last bull market, which confirms my point.
Figure 2 shows the selling behavior of different holding days. Here I only show and explain the groups that have been accelerating selling recently, namely
1w-1m: Bull markets will rise because market activity increases
1m-3m: Sell at profit
3m-5m: Sell at profit
12m-18m: Long-term investors accumulating in bear markets, smart money
3y-5y: This group is the investors who were stuck at the top of the mountain in the last bull market. After Bitcoin exceeded 50,000, investors untied and sold #大盘走势 #BTC $BTC
In my article "The sky is going to change!" ! ! 》For the first time, it was proposed that long-term holders are accelerating selling, and the market has entered a game pattern between traditional institutions and currency circle institutions.
Bitcoin fell 5 points today, look at who is selling from two on-chain indicators
Figure 1 shows the ratio of the number of days coins are destroyed to the total Bitcoin supply. For example, if a Bitcoin is held for 200 days and sold, it means 200 coin days were destroyed. It can be simply understood that the higher the indicator value, the more long-term holders sell. , on the contrary, the smaller it is, it is currently 1.6, which is twice the average and higher than the last bull market, which confirms my point.
Figure 2 shows the selling behavior of different holding days. Here I only show and explain the groups that have been accelerating selling recently, namely
1w-1m: Bull markets will rise because market activity increases
1m-3m: Sell at profit
3m-5m: Sell at profit
12m-18m: Long-term investors accumulating in bear markets, smart money
3y-5y: This group is the investors who were stuck at the top of the mountain in the last bull market. After Bitcoin exceeded 50,000, investors untied and sold #大盘走势 #BTC $BTC
LIVE演武东
--
Things are going to change! ! !
In the past two days, ETFs have inflowed US$418 million and US$244 million respectively, but the market has not risen? what happened? So I looked at the data on the chain and discovered a shocking secret
After the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, I have been tracking the inflow and outflow data of ETF funds. Judging from past experience, net capital inflow will drive BTC to rise, and vice versa. In the past two days, the net capital inflow has exceeded 100 million. Why has the market not risen? I read You will know the data on the chain.
The buying power was completely overwhelmed by selling. The picture below shows the profits of long- and short-term holders on the chain. You can see that when BTC rose to US$73,000, investors began to sell in large quantities, with the highest profit in one day being US$2.6 billion. Among them, short-term holders (positions held for less than 155 days) made a profit of US$1.56 billion; among the selling forces, long-term holders are a force that cannot be ignored. Why do you say this? Let’s see next.
After the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, I have been tracking the inflow and outflow data of ETF funds. Judging from past experience, net capital inflow will drive BTC to rise, and vice versa. In the past two days, the net capital inflow has exceeded 100 million. Why has the market not risen? I read You will know the data on the chain.
The buying power was completely overwhelmed by selling. The picture below shows the profits of long- and short-term holders on the chain. You can see that when BTC rose to US$73,000, investors began to sell in large quantities, with the highest profit in one day being US$2.6 billion. Among them, short-term holders (positions held for less than 155 days) made a profit of US$1.56 billion; among the selling forces, long-term holders are a force that cannot be ignored. Why do you say this? Let’s see next.
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what to do! ! !
Keep buying, buying, buying
Why am I still buying at this price? Because I am afraid of being short. I have experienced the last bull market. When you see others making money, you can only watch. It feels very painful. Therefore, I am willing to bear a short-term 30% correction in this bull market. , and don’t want to be empty
The most confusing thing right now is how to buy
I have two dimensions, one is the time dimension. From the historical cycle, in the month when BTC is halved, the market will be relatively stable, and then there will be a mad cow market, so I want to finish my bullets this month.
The other is the price dimension: My ideal entry price is $56,000. This price is the average price of short-term holders on the chain, and it has been a very strong support level in previous bull market corrections.
Why am I still buying at this price? Because I am afraid of being short. I have experienced the last bull market. When you see others making money, you can only watch. It feels very painful. Therefore, I am willing to bear a short-term 30% correction in this bull market. , and don’t want to be empty
The most confusing thing right now is how to buy
I have two dimensions, one is the time dimension. From the historical cycle, in the month when BTC is halved, the market will be relatively stable, and then there will be a mad cow market, so I want to finish my bullets this month.
The other is the price dimension: My ideal entry price is $56,000. This price is the average price of short-term holders on the chain, and it has been a very strong support level in previous bull market corrections.
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hundred times! ! !
Today, ETFs had a net inflow of $183 million, but the price of the currency fell. It seems that the currency circle institutions and traditional institutions are still in a game. Gua Ge made a detailed analysis in yesterday's article. Friends who are interested can visit my homepage. I think that the current market is not a market for retail investors, and the current bull market is not driven by retail investors. The only thing we can do is to hold the spot, reduce leverage, and wait for the halving.
Since the launch of the ETF, Grayscale's positions have continued to decrease. It cannot be lowered because it is not optimistic, but because Grayscale's handling fees are too high. Investors have switched positions to cheaper ETFs. Grayscale's holding ratio is expected to fall below 40% tonight. , IBIT will exceed 30%
Since the launch of the ETF, Grayscale's positions have continued to decrease. It cannot be lowered because it is not optimistic, but because Grayscale's handling fees are too high. Investors have switched positions to cheaper ETFs. Grayscale's holding ratio is expected to fall below 40% tonight. , IBIT will exceed 30%
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