BTC will break through $120,000 in October and $250,000 one year after the halving. The bull market may reach a maximum of more than $1 million!!!
Everyone knows that the economy has cycles. The traditional economy is divided into prosperity, recession, depression and recovery according to the Merrill Lynch clock; Bitcoin is no exception. The most obvious time point to distinguish the economic cycle of Bitcoin is halving. Bitcoin is halved every 4 years, which has a profound impact on the balance of Bitcoin supply and demand, market psychology and price trends. Therefore, each round of halving will produce a round of economic cycle.
Today we will compare the performance after each halving to predict the trend of this cycle
For easy observation, I put the trends after each halving in a chart; comparing the performance 6 months, 12 months, and 18 months after each halving.
The chart takes the price on the day of halving as 100%
Before that, let’s first look at the performance from the halving to the present. The figure below shows that after each halving, the market will enter a sideways trend of about three months. The black line in the figure is the current cycle. It can be seen that the performance of the current cycle is better than the previous three cycles, and it is not as pessimistic as the market performance.
Through the average algorithm, it can be calculated that the fluctuation range of this period is between -10% and +11%, that is, between 57432-71127. The market trend also confirms this. And from the figure below, it can be seen that most of the BTC prices are in the positive return area, and the performance preference is within expectations;
For the trend after halving, we mainly refer to the third and fourth halvings. Compared with the previous two cycles, the markets in these two cycles are more mature and larger in size, and thus will be affected by the traditional economy and have more obvious cyclicality. The figure below is a trend chart of each cycle starting from the low point. It can be seen that the trend of this cycle is very similar to the previous two cycles.
Performance 6 months after halving
First time: 516.5%
Second time: 1023.6%
Third time: 170.4%
Fourth time: 189.1%
The fifth time: 180% ($65,000*1.8=$11.7), calculated here based on the average increase of the previous two times.
The most obvious increase occurred in September and October. It seems that the golden September and silver October have also been adopted in the cryptocurrency circle. I look forward to the arrival of the golden lady and the silver lady, so that they can take me flying together😍.
Performance 12 months after halving
First time: 18357.3%
Second time: 7450%
Third time: 397.3%
Fourth time: 398.7%
The fifth time: 398% ($65,000*39,800=$258,700), calculated based on the average increase of the previous two times.
Performance 18 months after halving
Third time: 2381.1%
Fourth time: 690.3%
Fifth time: 1535.7% ($65,000 * 153,500 = $997,750), calculated based on the average increase of the previous two times
BTC reaches 1 million US dollars. This result is consistent with Mu Tou Sister’s prediction. I don’t know if it is a coincidence or they also calculated it according to this method.
In short, the bull market is about to start, hold on to the coins in your hands, be firm in your faith, and don’t fall in the darkness before dawn; the next stop: a bright future
