When will the new round of rise come? Wait until your current spot profit is lost, wait until your agreed long and short trades are lost, you don’t cherish the profit, and eventually you will find that the spot profit is lost, and the agreed long and short trades are all lost. The dividends are decreasing, and you who operate in intervals have no chips and no principal in your hands, and there will eventually be an exciting bull market. The bull market has nothing to do with you
#美国政府转移BTC #美联储何时降息？

Bitcoin has risen in volume and has reached the MA120 moving average. The market outlook is expected to be higher. If the volume falls back, long positions will be the preferred strategy.
#比特币

Be cautious when chasing highs, and do a good job of defending profits.

Weekly summary

July 20, 2024

I. Think about the answers to several questions

1. The relationship between Nasdaq → Bitcoin → CFDs, now it seems that the water is overflowing layer by layer;

2. In October last year, they were all at the bottom, and began to hype the expectation of interest rate cuts. Bitcoin had ETF bonuses, and everyone rose together, and the rise was very fierce, and the market risk preference was high;

3. Since March this year, the market heat has subsided, the market risk preference has decreased, and funds have begun to group together for big technology defense. CFDs were abandoned first, and Bitcoin was abandoned later. The currency circle was sucked blood or the heat was reduced;

4. In July, $BTC was $53,000, the market risk preference increased, large funds were redistributed, and big technology was adjusted. Funds overflowed to small stocks including Bitcoin, and the prices of most CFDs were still in a bear market.

5. So let's deduce, when will there be a market like last October when everyone celebrates together? I personally think that it may take a few times of water release, provided that the price is also sexy.
2. Is this a rebound or a reversal?

1. My current attitude is to take one step at a time. I think this is just a rebound. It is a good strategy to take every step carefully at this position.

2. It is known that there is a not very standard push at present. It depends on the strength of the adjustment of this push after it reaches the top.

3. From the chart, the top of this wave of push is around 68,000. If you want to continue to rise, the callback should be in the range of 60,000→62,500. Don't go down. Then the next wave of push may break the previous high. Record it for now and look at it later.

3. Finally,

1. It is irrational to short at any time. Wait for the callback.

2. Those who can buy are apprentices, those who can sell are masters, and those who can short are the ancestors.

3. This wave of rise is a good opportunity to observe strength and weakness and adjust positions. Please cherish it.

The second half of the bull market is the real wealth-making stage!

There are many people who are looking at the bull market at present, but there are more people who are afraid of callbacks! Continuously rising in doubt, all trends come from this, so-called buying in closed and selling in agreement, we just need to hold the spot and stay away from the noise.

The milk chart below shows that in the last two rounds of bull markets, when the high point of the previous bull market is reached, it will be adjusted through washing, and then the market will be reopened. In this way

Seeing that the support retest is basically completed, the trend is returning. wld

Last night, it was triggered by an official news of delayed unlocking. A few days before the outbreak, some partners in the Huaguoshan group privately chatted with me about which cottages can be laid out. wld Whether it is my first series, from the perspective of K-line or narrative, it is worth entering. And I have said many times that when the market comes, unlocking is not the key factor for the curbed rise. The rise will continue, and all the market conditions will decide! Too many unexpected things have happened in this round of bull market, but there were actually many unexpected things in the last round of bull market, so we can only strengthen our faith, and we will fight against the enemy and cover the water with earth. It depends on the final result.

This wave of deep pullbacks with an extreme limit of 53.5k, the floating profit chips on the chain fell to a minimum of 74% (7-day MA)

It is worth mentioning that the 73% on July 3, 2020, both of these pullbacks occurred shortly after the BTC mining revenue dropped for half a day

Bitcoin is trending very strongly, moving upward along the 5-minute EMA20 and 50, and there has not been any decent pullback for the time being.

Regarding altcoins, I would like to share some buying logic:
First, there is no god in this market.
As long as the Bitcoin market is at the bottom, it will slowly recover and start an upward trend.
Altcoins will rise!
Especially for the big exchanges, from the beginning of this year to now, no matter what kind of currency,
the currency that has experienced this wave of callbacks, with a large slope or a horizontal line, is very worth investing in.
The hype narrative is basically still around these:
1. Concept logic directly driven by ETF, such as Ethereum ecology, SOL ecology
2. Inscription track (refer to double leaders), traditional meme coins
3. AI concept, AI concept is still one of the cores of hype in the second half
4. Public chain and cross-chain, good public chain hype imagination is strong, cross-chain integration ability is strong, in the current situation of various chains and applications flooding, such an integration platform is more needed
5. Games and social networking, the wind stopped, and the track slowly no longer paid attention, but I think whether it is web2 or web3 games and social networking will always be an indispensable core narrative
6. RWA, the recent 100-fold high of OM has increased the attention of this track. Focus on exploring those few, and they will inevitably rotate in the second half.
The market is here, and there is no need to push the copycat, one word: rise!
Finally, I hope everyone can recover blood as soon as possible and make a huge profit! #山寨季何时到来？
#solana生态 #铭文即将起飞

The direction of the big cycle does not change

There is a high probability that the trend line will break through falsely, the bearish wedge structure is effective, and it is a good opportunity to short!

Bitcoin and Ethereum hit the daily EMA20 moving average pressure level. The moving average has formed a good suppression on the price in the past few times. Every time it touches, the price will fall. What will happen this time?

#BTC走势预测 #以太坊暴涨

The three supports below are: 51518 USD, 44637 USD, and 37755 USD;

51518 USD is the bull-bear dividing line from 15476 USD to 73794 USD. In other words, the bull market cannot fall below 51518 USD. Once it falls below, the probability of retreating to 37755 USD will be as high as 80% or more.

The idea of ​​this dog dealer $BTC is very accurate for me to guess. With the help of the positive side of CPI, it will first pull the price to around 59600, and then start to smash the market after those who chase high prices get on board. The script has been written for you, and the price is perfect. The main purpose is to clean up the applicants on the market. Now the market funds are very scarce. Unlike before, the market will rise all the way as long as there are positive factors. At least, the applicants on the market must be cleared before they can continue to break upward. Many people are still immersed in the level of data benefits. They don’t know that the dealer has planned to smash the market if you don’t buy. This CPI data can be confirmed to be the interest rate hike data in September. There is a high probability that there will be a rate cut, so don’t be afraid of the bottom chips. Buy them slowly.

If the short-term support of $BTC is 57200, it will continue to fall to around 55400, and it needs to break through 60500 to open the rising range. If you like it, please follow it and don’t get lost. I will share other operation methods later.

In the bull market, super big investors are building positions in Bitcoin for the second time on the left side. The main uptrend should not be far away. Event: DaB.com has added 12,000 Bitcoin#BTCin the last three weeks. It is really a bargain hunting. Average price of adding positions: should be below 60,000, roughly estimated to be around 58,000. Time of adding positions: Since Bitcoin fell below 65,000 on June 19, it has continued to add positions until now.

Last week, I was bearish all the time. I kept telling everyone not to buy at the bottom. Have a good weekend. It hasn’t reached the bottom yet. I still say that 53485 is not the bottom. It needs to fall below it. Keep waiting patiently.

As for whether TON is worth buying, let me first give a conclusion. It is not worth buying. It is likely to reach the century peak, and the final price will return to between 1-2.5.

The reason is also relatively simple. From 0.007 to 8.2, the increase has exceeded 128 times. The so-called prosperity and development of the TON ecosystem, the price of the currency has actually fulfilled expectations. The so-called buying expectations, selling fulfillment. The reflection is very obvious in the K-line, which has already run at the end of the 5th wave of the quarterly line.

At present, most of the coins sold on the market are junk coins, not the bottom. Those who say that the copycat coins are all at the bottom are either bad or stupid. Shouting the slogan of the bottom means you are going to buy the bottom. When you think it is junk, you will not buy the bottom. When the time really comes, as long as you are willing to spend money, instead of predicting that the bottom is a long way off, you can't bear it in your heart, and eventually you will stop loss and leave. So, why not go with the flow and don't waste it when the financial sentiment is good?

BTC is being sold by major institutions, and the German and US governments are selling. The main players are not aware of the future market information. Will the price of Bitcoin dive? ? ? ? ? ? What will be the next move?
If Bitcoin falls below 580 million today, what I shared two days ago will be realized. There will be a storm this week or next week, and the price will fall directly to 56666 to 53666U. Please hold your position reasonably and do a good job of risk control!

As long as it falls below $60,300, Bitcoin will go to $52,000!
If it is really 52,000, only the cost of electricity and mining machines is considered, miners are equivalent to paying the bosses to work for mining.
From a big cycle point of view, it is indeed going to pull back, and it is now consolidating at a high level.

From the perspective of mining, in general, there are several important support levels for BTC: 1. Electricity cost $30,000 (shutdown price)

Based on the total network computing power of 550E, 0.38 yuan/kWh, and the current market mainstream mining machine T21 configuration as a reference, the shutdown price is derived. Historically, there has been no potential shutdown market for mainstream/flagship models at relatively moderate electricity prices.

2. Black Swan Support $48,000 (Shutdown Price * 160%)

Historically, all black swans have never appeared in the market with electricity costs lower than 160% of the current cycle. Therefore, based on the current electricity cost of 1 BTC of 30,000, the risk of buying below 48,000 is extremely low (but it does not mean that the account has no floating losses).

3. Cost support $52,000

With an electricity cost of 0.38 yuan/kWh and a three-year operating life of T21, the BTC price matched by the daily electricity + mining machine cost, when it is lower than this price, basically the risk of buying a BTC in the secondary market is much lower than the risk of miners who start with an investment of more than tens of millions

4. Bear market support $60,000

In most cases in a bear market, the market fluctuates around 200% of the shutdown price, which is around 60,000. For medium and long-term investment, it is a good bottom.

For bulls: 1. Non-agricultural employment fell sharply 2. CPI continued to decline, forcing the Fed to cut interest rates twice and three times. Otherwise, according to Liu Yudong's forecast, a new low of 54,000 points will be reached. 1, 2 Every step cannot deviate. Three interest rate cuts can save cryptocurrencies. SOL is a dealer's game. Those who are not afraid of death can play contracts.