Be cautious when chasing highs, and do a good job of defending profits.

Weekly summary

July 20, 2024

I. Think about the answers to several questions

1. The relationship between Nasdaq → Bitcoin → CFDs, now it seems that the water is overflowing layer by layer;

2. In October last year, they were all at the bottom, and began to hype the expectation of interest rate cuts. Bitcoin had ETF bonuses, and everyone rose together, and the rise was very fierce, and the market risk preference was high;

3. Since March this year, the market heat has subsided, the market risk preference has decreased, and funds have begun to group together for big technology defense. CFDs were abandoned first, and Bitcoin was abandoned later. The currency circle was sucked blood or the heat was reduced;

4. In July, $BTC was $53,000, the market risk preference increased, large funds were redistributed, and big technology was adjusted. Funds overflowed to small stocks including Bitcoin, and the prices of most CFDs were still in a bear market.

5. So let's deduce, when will there be a market like last October when everyone celebrates together? I personally think that it may take a few times of water release, provided that the price is also sexy.

2. Is this a rebound or a reversal?

1. My current attitude is to take one step at a time. I think this is just a rebound. It is a good strategy to take every step carefully at this position.

2. It is known that there is a not very standard push at present. It depends on the strength of the adjustment of this push after it reaches the top.

3. From the chart, the top of this wave of push is around 68,000. If you want to continue to rise, the callback should be in the range of 60,000→62,500. Don't go down. Then the next wave of push may break the previous high. Record it for now and look at it later.

3. Finally,

1. It is irrational to short at any time. Wait for the callback.

2. Those who can buy are apprentices, those who can sell are masters, and those who can short are the ancestors.

3. This wave of rise is a good opportunity to observe strength and weakness and adjust positions. Please cherish it.