When making contracts, especially with high leverage, whether to hold a position depends on your view of the market. This can be dangerous, and it is advised not to use high leverage; otherwise, even a slight fluctuation can disturb your misjudgment of the market due to emotions. The trends of long and short positions are cyclical and should be judged from larger time frames such as long hours and daily charts. Do not get obsessed with temporary fluctuations in short time frames. I also noticed that the December line did not close well, but the current daily trend has not deteriorated after breaking out, so we should be cautious about shorting. Moreover, trends gradually transmit to longer time frames, so even if a divergence appears in the short term, it will not immediately change the trend.

I haven't shared my views in a long time. I've noticed that there are many people in the square who are bearish. I'll briefly share my judgment on the upcoming market trends.

First, the conclusion: short-term rebound. Given that the December line closed poorly, there will be significant fluctuations in mid to late January. We may enter a monthly level adjustment. 108,000 should not be the peak of this bull market. As for when it will happen, we need to take it step by step.

From a technical perspective, two points of analysis:
1. Multiple technical indicators for BTC have entered the oversold zone and are beginning to show hourly divergences. Currently, it has tested the bottom range around 93,000 three to four times without effectively breaking down, forming a box bottom, and the K-line patterns show considerable support. There is no urgent need for a surge, which is a good thing: one, it builds momentum; two, it straightens out the moving averages across various time frames during the horizontal fluctuations, weakening the pressure formed, before breaking out with volume.

2. Assuming 108,000 is the peak, the daily patterns of historical bull tops are often M-shaped, which aligns with the methods and cycles of the main players' distribution; there are rarely one-sided declines. Based on this, I predict another rebound. The longer it lingers at the current position, the greater the probability of breaking above 100,000.

There is too much noise in the square right now. It's crucial to maintain your own thinking and judgment. When making money in the crypto space, don't get caught up in temporary fluctuations. If your overall direction is correct, you can make money in cyclical markets. Many who trade contracts are overly obsessed with short-term profits and technical indicators. Once caught in a position, they easily disturb their mindset, which backfires.

Above all, if anyone has differing opinions, feel free to communicate. Those who maliciously insult are welcome to be blocked.

After careful study, the indicators for the recent bull market peaks have been increasingly lower, which may be due to dynamic changes in the sample. If adjusted according to the proportion, the next one may be between 4-5.

Change your mindset, the current technology has already started to show a divergence from the bottom. What if the hourly cycle is forming a triple bottom? If it is a major top, it should also refer to 108,000 from the daily level, before rebounding to above 100,000 to form an M-top, like the 69,000 in 2020 and the 73,000 earlier this year. If you don't consider 108,000 as a major top, then why care about this small fluctuation? At the current position, if a range-bound fluctuation forms, the longer it lasts, the more it will help to repair the indicators, which in turn is beneficial for a rise.

There is no need to elaborate on the negative news such as the rate cut and the situation in the Middle East.

Another observation is that the 7-week line has never formed a dead cross since the golden cross in September last year, but according to the current engulfing K-line, it will form a dead cross in the next 2 weeks. It is foreseeable that the news does not support too much off-market funds to go long here. The main force has been fluctuating at a high level for 5-6 months and has changed hands and is also waiting for the shoe to drop. Therefore, the rebound is becoming increasingly weak. Everyone should control their positions well. Going short at highs is also considered a "bull market"... Don't be too stubborn.

Let me talk about my judgment on the future trend. First, I will say the conclusion: "There is no bottom in the fall relay." And the main rising wave that breaks the new high may be delayed for a longer time, and even 73,000 is the high point of this year.

Analyze from the following two aspects:

1. The box oscillation of 60,000-73,000 for 4 consecutive months, I think it constitutes the main distribution area, because from a historical point of view, if it is a high-level shock and then pull up, the time span is unlikely to be so long, and the monthly line closes in the negative and is mostly a huge entity. The shock may close with a long lower shadow, indicating that the main box oscillates gradually. If the assumption is established, the current market has just broken through the box, which is also regarded as just breaking through the profit range of the main force. At this time, there are no cheaper chips in hand, and it is impossible to give up the previous cheap chips and build a position here. This will undoubtedly increase their costs and risks, which is not in line with their cost-benefit logic.

2. Regarding the saying that interest rate cuts mean an increase, you can refer to the performance of the previous bull market in the period of interest rate cuts, which was mainly a decline. In fact, the previous market has already overdrawn the expectation of interest rate cuts in advance, so even if the recent economic data indicates a rate cut in September, the market is not shocked. Perhaps it is a good thing not to cut interest rates and not to disrupt the balance of the market. After all, a rate cut means economic recession and capital outflow. Therefore, if the interest rate is really cut in September, it will accelerate the bottoming of the market. It is better to be cautious at that time.

In summary, from the perspective of policy, technology, and emotions, my personal opinion is that the bottom has not yet been reached. Perhaps the bottom is in the 40,000 range.

Regarding the current market view:
The current trend of the convergent triangle is a repair of the weekly level deviation rate. If it can stand at around 58,200, it can be long. Next week, it will be inserted above 60,000, to the neckline of the box. After consolidation, there will be a shrinkage of volume, which will start a downward trend.

The above is only my personal opinion. Different opinions can be discussed in a friendly manner. If you are emotional, you are welcome to block me.

$BTC

I have been shorting since mid-March. I also expressed some bearish views at that time. Although the market was a bit slow, it actually came out. I wonder how those who sneered at the bullish outlook a few months ago feel now?

Two opinions
One good news, there may be a rebound after falling to 53,000. The target I see is around 58,000 at most.

One bad news, a few months ago I thought that falling to around 53,000 was the bottom, but now the market has come out, it seems that the bottom pattern is still not visible. It is estimated that it will enter the 4-digit range, and it is best to build a bottom at 43,000.

At present, in terms of operation, spot can be opened at low prices, and the more it falls, the more it buys. Or it is shorting at high prices. The general trend is still downward. I wish you all good luck.

$BTC

The most misleading argument on the square is that "the altcoin can no longer fall".

Little do people know that there is a strongest consensus in the currency circle, that is, "the currency circle is the currency circle of Bitcoin", and the rise and fall of more than 95% of the altcoins are all based on BTC's face. Therefore, to analyze the market, especially for retail investors, there is no need to read too much lengthy information about tokens, just figure out the sector to which they belong and follow the hot spots of the main hot money speculation. The most important thing is to analyze the macro aspect and the technical aspect of BTC.

In summary, it is not important whether the altcoin is still falling. What is important is whether Btc will continue to pull back? If it is to pull back, the altcoin is unlikely to go out of the independent market, and it may even follow Btc's negative decline. You must know that there is a "basement" under the floor price.

Why am I still bearish? It is because Btc's April positive line engulfed, and the weekly Macd dead cross, and it is still at a high level. Some people replied that technical indicators are not important and have lags. But we need to analyze the logic behind the problem. If the Macd dead cross wants to reverse and cross again, there must be continuous positive news, and large funds must enter the market to hedge the previous profit/lock-in. The recent trend is that the rise is small and the fall is large, so it is difficult to build a bottom above 60,000. First, see if 56,000 can form a double bottom. If not, look at around 53,000. As for whether it will fall into 40,000, we will analyze it according to the market.

Friendly discussion is welcome. If you reply with emotion, you will be blocked directly.

$BTC

Although it is still bearish, I hope that today will not fall, and the weekly line will form a positive line. After all, it has closed 4 negative lines in a row. Correcting a downward trend is better for a quick bottoming out later.

Although it is currently a cross star that seems to have strong support, it is actually driven by the expectation of non-agricultural interest rate cuts, and there is no incremental capital entering the market. I think to understand the main force's thinking, we have to look at the engulfing positive line in April. If it is really a wash, it should be taken over at the end of April, at least with part of the lower shadow line, rather than closing a whole positive line entity, indicating that the main force has changed hands at a high level, and more funds that can drive the market up have flowed out, and they understand that closing such a negative line will make it more difficult to control the market in the later stage.

Of course, there are also some people in the market who think it is a reversal and will rise to 80,000, but the current weekly MACD indicator is still in the overbought area and has a dead cross. If the indicator is not corrected, it is nonsense to want to break through 100,000 later.

There are also many people who say that the possibility of a rate cut is a positive. In fact, those who have studied the trends of the previous rate cut cycles know that the first few months were first down and then up. There are many opportunities for retail investors to enter the market.

Finally, those who left sarcastic comments, I emphasize again that I don’t do contracts, I only buy spot, and now I am only staking mining, and I only catch 2-3 major trends a year. If you think you are right, just go long.

$BTC

From the market, it seems that the market is brewing again, but it is going down. For those who are still bullish, you only need to figure out two questions:

1: Is the third month of BTC 60,000-73,000 range fluctuation the main force distribution range? If so, will the main force just change hands and then pull up at 56,500 to rescue the locked-in positions?

2: The non-agricultural data the day before yesterday was good, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts. Is there really incremental funds entering the market? If not, is it all the existing funds that are playing now? Can it break through the new high?

If your answer to the above two questions is no, then continue to hold bullish. After all, a mature market is a zero-sum game. If someone loses, someone will make money. This is healthy.

$BTC

Today, the non-farm payrolls and employment rates have boosted the market, and the market has ignited the passion of "bull return". However, I still want to pour cold water on it, because the core of the United States is "stagflation", not inflation, so the interest rate cut may not be smooth sailing, and the essence of the current market's lack of money has not been improved. In other words, no main force is willing to continue to push up at this stage of more than 60,000. So the positive employment data may be digested quickly.

In addition, there is a need for a rebound after a few weeks of decline, and it just happens to rebound with the good news. There may be a second bottoming out later. At least for now, I still don't think 56,000 is the bottom. But it is a safe position, and you can start to build a small position.

In short, keep independent thinking, don't Fomo easily. If you don't agree with my point of view, just follow your own operation, don't be emotional.

$BTC

After watching the "analysts" who are still bullish in the market
I have a deep understanding of what "position theory" is, that is, the position determines how to view the current long and short market. I don't know how many positions this group has locked up, and they can deliberately ignore the current bad news and blindly be bullish.
If the analysts really understand, can they help me explain these two aspects:

-
Technical side
1. The monthly negative line entity completely covers the positive line of last month. What is this K-line combination called? Is it bullish or bearish in the future?
2. The weekly K-line Macd has already crossed. Whenever there were three bull peaks in 2019-2020, what kind of decline did it go out after the cross?

-
Macro aspect
Not to mention the old-fashioned extension of interest rate cuts and the continuous outflow of main funds, even the good news of the listing of Hong Kong ETFs today, the trading volume is only about 12 million US dollars. For the trillion-level currency circle, I am afraid it is not even enough. The price of BTC70,000 is a "prisoner's dilemma" for many main players, who are suspicious of each other - only by shipping before other main players can they not support each other. Combined with the current macro situation, where is the incremental capital? Is it relying on retail investors to cheer each other up in the square to pull up the market?

I have been warning of risks in the past few weeks, but "analysts" have been sneering in response, but the market is always right, and it knows best whether the position is painful or not.

If you must be bullish, then I suggest shorting, which is also in the "bull market" stage. Why do you have to go against the market?

$BTC

I don't quite understand why some so-called "analysts" only focus on the hourly cycle. What's the point of betting on intraday rebounds and making profits? Even T+0 contracts have to consider the risk of up and down spikes. Wasn't it the same trend a few days ago?

Even BlackRock, which had been buying for some time, has stopped. Does the long fund rely on retail investors to pull it up? Even if you do contracts, try to only do unilateral trend market. That is, first determine that the general trend is downward, isn't it safer to short at highs? At present, I think the risk and return of grabbing rebounds are not proportional. Try to wait and see. The correct thinking is to only operate those few major trends in a year, rather than a quick-in and quick-out game. Of course, everyone has different ideas, just be responsible for your own capital.

Friendly reminder, in my humble opinion, the current decline may be just an appetizer, and there may be a big one in the next 1-2 weeks, and the probability of breaking a new low is relatively high. If it can be spiked to 51,000-53,000 in May, it may be a good choice to open a position at that time.

Good luck to you all.

#BTC

The latest negative news, combined with the market trend, basically confirms the death cross of the weekly MACD. In May, it is likely to run in the 50,000 range, or even 40,000. I only think that the current rebound is a spent force.

And it is possible that the bull cycle of this halving may be put after the third and fourth quarters, because the instability of the policy and international situation has increased the complexity of the market, and it may even go out of a circular bottom. The main force also took the opportunity to rebuild positions, and waited for the interest rate cut cycle to form a resonance and then pull up.

So the spot is currently watching more and moving less. If it is really like this, friends who are still stuck at a high position may have to wait for a long time, or if it falls to around 56,000, they can add positions in batches (buy more as it falls) to dilute the cost.

The above analysis is only a personal opinion. Friends who chase the rise and fall of contracts can ignore it. You can discuss it in a friendly way. Those who spray with personal emotions will be blocked directly.

#BTC

I only invest in spot, so I am a long position, so I am bullish. However, I have cleared all the copycat stocks since March 8, and it has been almost 2 months. This time when it rebounded from 59,000, I was also short, missing out on 20-30% of the profit. I also did Fomo. But if I don’t restrain human greed, the market will help me "restrain" because I comfort myself that "the principal is always greater than the profit", and I also remember deeply that when the market was still optimistic in 2020, the result was a tragedy.

Back to the market, I wonder if what the previous message said happened, "If the weekly K-line closes negative, then it will cause the MACD to cross in the next 1-2 weeks, and the range of the correction may not be stopped by more than 60,000. For details, please refer to the trend after the MACD cross of the weekly K-line twice at the top of the bull market in 2020. Combined with the current macroeconomic situation, there are more negatives and the positives have almost been realized. There is no topic of continuous speculation to break through the new high. I just look forward to when the US rate cut will come.

At present, I don’t think the bull market is over, but it just needs a deep correction. According to the current news, the next main uptrend may be delayed, but it is also a good time to build a position.

Friends who still have positions, I hope that the recent 1-2 weeks will not be too ugly, so that it may stop falling and rebound, and continue to try to break through the new high. But if there is no repair indicator and it turns over, it is estimated that this bull market will reach about 80,000 at most.

Emotional reminder: It is normal to have differences in the market. Only rational discussions within the market are accepted. If you are emotional, I will block you directly.

#BTC 5-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute and 2-hour Macd have all shown a top divergence. Every subsequent difficult rise is brewing the potential for a decline. Friends who are still bullish should take care of themselves.

For all the "analysts" who are still bullish, please explain the upcoming death cross of the weekly line and compare it with the trend after the death cross in 2020. Those who are still bullish, take care of yourself