The latest article by Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, is titled "Water, Water, Every Where", which can be translated as "Liquidity, liquidity, needed everywhere". The article emphasizes the importance of liquidity and analyzes the impact of various policy tools of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury on market liquidity.

This round clearly feels that liquidity determines everything. Previously, BTC could rely on the benefits of ETFs and capital inflows to break through the previous round of highs, but to maintain the upward trend, it must rely on market liquidity support. The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury are the two giants that affect the liquidity of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve relies on adjusting policy interest rates, expanding/shrinking balance sheets, and overnight reverse repurchases; the Treasury relies on issuing long/short-term treasury bonds. The cryptocurrency market is at the end of liquidity in the U.S. financial market, so the depletion or reduction of market liquidity will be reflected in the cryptocurrency market first.

If you understand this, you will understand why BTC has not been able to break through new highs since March because of the lack of market liquidity, and the only funds have flowed to U.S. stocks and U.S. long-term treasury bonds. At the same time, you will understand the importance of interest rate cuts to the second half of the bull market in the cryptocurrency market, and now the interest rate cut cycle is about to start. , it is expected that the Fed will maintain the interest rate to the neutral rate through multiple interest rate cuts. Only multiple interest rate cuts can release water to the cryptocurrency circle, not one or two interest rate cuts.

At the same time, it should be noted that the Fed will not lower the interest rate to the same low as in 2020 in this round of interest rate cuts. In 2020, it is actually QE, which is a stronger stimulus than gradual interest rate cuts. Therefore, there will not be as much capital flowing into the cryptocurrency circle as in the last bull market. In addition, there are too many currencies now, and there will not be a market where all the currencies rise in the second half of the bull market, so it is very important to select currencies. Strong currencies will absorb a lot of market liquidity and explode, while weak currencies may be able to recover their capital with the current decline. This round of bull market must be strong and strong, and you must hold strong currencies to make money.

The above analysis is based on the judgment of liquidity on the general trend of the second half of the bull market. Any investment to make money from the trend is simple and has the highest winning rate. This is the way and the fundamental. The investment risk in the cryptocurrency circle is high, and it is more important to follow the general trend. What we need to do now is to select the strong currencies in the market, increase positions when the market is low, and get the profit in the second half of the bull market next year.#BTC走势预测 #美联储降息周期 #趋势投资 $BTC

Local wars will not change the market trend, it is nothing more than the spread of panic. What comes quickly will also go quickly, and the market rebound will also be fierce. The market has verified in the first half of the year that a decline is an opportunity to pick up cheap chips. Don't be fooled by the big A fomo. The stock market is just a tool for financial management for ordinary people, and the Crypto Market is the only chance for ordinary people to turn things around
#加密市场急跌 #大A香还是大饼香 #加密市场急跌 #非农就业数据即将公布 #美联储11月降息预期升温

At present, the cryptocurrency market is stable above 64,500, showing the strong resilience of the market. As we have discussed before, the implementation of interest rate cuts, the expected "soft landing" of the US economy, and the US election, all kinds of positive factors support the market, so before the next rise, the market may be sideways or slightly down, but basically there will be no deep correction.

Let's talk about the interest rate cut in November. The market currently expects a 50 basis point rate cut in November with a probability of 52.2%, which is basically the same as yesterday. Last Friday, Nick Timiraos, a reporter known as the "New Fed News Agency", tweeted that the current interest rate cut may not necessarily guarantee a "soft landing" for the US economy, and the economy is still at risk. A careful analysis of the deep meaning of this can convey that it is still necessary to speed up the pace of interest rate cuts to provide more favorable support for the economy. Nick's statement is intriguing. Is it possible that the Fed has leaked the wind to the market through him, thinking that the next time there will be a large interest rate cut in advance? After all, before the September interest rate cut, it was the tweet that changed the market's expectations in one fell swoop.

According to market news, Coinbase is currently ranked 385th in Apple downloads, which is a significant increase from the beginning of the month. When the market is good, new retail investors will come in, just like the A-share market in the past two days. The second half of the cryptocurrency market is still in Q4 of this year and next year. At that time, with the continuous rise in BTC prices and media publicity, new funds will naturally enter the market, thereby continuing to push up the market. 99% of the time in investment is boring market, and only 1% of the time is the real money-making market. We have survived the grinding market from March to now, and now it is time to reap the fruits, so make sure to stay at the table and stay away from contracts and leverage. 79175934270743753375689685078944994347621790#山寨季何时到来？ 13290987477 78881302711 36938569509 742295288695923452952487673315 982

The second half of the bull market is about to start, and various groups of people who want to get rich quickly are active again. In the second half, meme is still one of the main themes. XDM must have meme coins (secondary market) in its holdings, especially the leading memes (pepe, wif), which always convince people with their rising prices. Because the leading memes always attract the strongest liquidity in the sector, the trading volume of the two exchanges has always been ranked in the top 15. #pepe⚡ #WIF王者归来 #BTC☀ #meme板块关注热点

The U.S. core PCE price index for August, released on Friday night, rose 0.1% month-on-month, hitting a new low since May, indicating that the Fed's "favorite" inflation indicator continues to cool down. This has cleared the way for the Fed to continue to cut interest rates, or to cut interest rates sharply. Currently, the market expects a 50 basis point rate cut in November with a probability of 53.3%.
In the crypto market, 10x Research expects BTC to see a strong rise in Q4, and is expected to hit a record high. Among many research institutions, 10x Research's research results are relatively reliable. When the market was more FOMO, it also issued timely warnings about the market's rise. At the same time, the FTX bankruptcy process is expected to inject $16 billion in liquidity into the market in Q4, which is another boost among the many positive factors at the end of the year. #加密市场反弹 #BTC☀ #山寨季何时到来？ #美联储11月降息预期升温

👉The U.S. initial claims data released last night fell back to near a multi-decade low. The final value of the U.S. real GDP in the second quarter was 3% year-on-year, slightly higher than the expected 2.9%, easing market concerns about the U.S. economy. The market's probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in November has declined. Two rate cuts this year, 25 basis points each time, is the basic expectation. If it can be achieved, it is at least not bad news. If the economy does not fall into recession, a 50 basis point rate cut in November and a 25 basis point rate cut in December are additional positives. If the market is too full of large rate cuts, it is easy to have large fluctuations later.
👉The money market funds in the U.S. retail investor reservoir continued to hit a new high of $6.42 trillion. As of the week of September 25, about $121 billion flowed into U.S. money market funds. I personally pay more attention to the movement of this part of the funds. After all, it is mainly retail investors, and it is easier to change risk preferences. At present, the unclear economic scenario in the United States and the high level of national debt have led to the continued influx of retail funds into money market funds. As macro data stabilizes, the Fed cuts interest rates, and the yield of money market funds declines, this part of the money may flow out to higher-risk markets.
👉Recently, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed support for the Fed's interest rate cut and said that she is thinking deeply about how to enhance liquidity. The Fed's interest rate cut is also a big boon to the Treasury Department. After all, the high interest expenses have caused headaches for the U.S. Treasury Department. We should also pay attention to the issuance of Treasury bonds by the Treasury Department in the future, due to the issuance of long-term bonds.
👉At present, major global economies including the United States and China have basically started a wide liquidity cycle, and BTC has a strong correlation with global liquidity. Stimulated by various favorable factors, BTC has finally re-established the $65,000 mark, and the trading volume of BTC ETF has also increased significantly, indicating that investors are more optimistic about the market outlook. Personally, I judge that the market will basically maintain a volatile upward trend, and there will be basically no major correction. Unless a black swan event occurs (U.S. stock performance is lower than expected, and there is a risk of a U.S. economic recession).
#美联储降息周期 #山寨季何时到来？ #BTC☀ #美国二季度核心PCE符合预期

Yesterday, Fed Governor Kugler expressed "strong support" for the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and said that if inflation continues to progress as I expect, he will support further rate cuts. Today, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in November has increased further than yesterday. Harris said in a speech at the Pittsburgh Economic Club on Wednesday that the United States should become a leader in the blockchain field and reiterated his support for digital assets. The interest rate cut and the US election are both turning in favor of the cryptocurrency market, and the market is expected at the end of the year and next year. #本周美国将公布PCE、GDP数据 #加密市场反弹 #BTC☀ #山寨季何时到来？

The unexpected drop in US consumer confidence has led to an increase in market expectations for another sharp interest rate cut in November. US stocks rose after falling. It can be seen that although the interest rate cut in September has been implemented, the market is still groping for the intensity of subsequent interest rate cuts. Therefore, it is necessary to constantly obtain clues from economic data, and the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts will also be one step at a time. Personally, I think that at least before the interest rate cuts are completed this year, expectations for the intensity of future interest rate cuts will be uncertain, and the corresponding market will still be dominated by high-level fluctuations. #加密市场反弹 #BTC☀ #山寨季何时到来？ #本周美国将公布PCE、GDP数据

The service PMI data released last night showed that the US service industry is still expanding. Although the manufacturing PMI is lower than expected, it shows that the US economy, which is dominated by the service industry, is still growing steadily. Last night, the Fed executives continued to give the market a heads-up. The media commented that the Fed officials left the door open for another substantial interest rate cut, but kept a close eye on the data. According to CME Fed Watch data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 47.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 52.9%. The US economy is expected to achieve a soft landing, and another substantial interest rate cut is also foreseeable. The overall market sentiment is relatively optimistic. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's forecast for the future neutral interest rate, which is currently 2.9%, which has an important impact on the Fed's choice of the pace of interest rate cuts. #美联储宣布降息50个基点 #加密市场反弹 #BTC☀ #山寨季何时到来？

As the interest rate cut officially landed, the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency circle responded positively yesterday, which also verified that the market interpreted this interest rate cut as a positive. How will the market go in the future? It is estimated that it will still fluctuate, and it is difficult to directly start the second half of the bull market. Even if the interest rate is cut now, the interest rate is still at a restricted level. It is necessary to cut interest rates multiple times before external liquidity can be gradually relaxed. It is expected that it will take effect in the first quarter of next year.
What else needs to be focused on from now to the end of the year?
1. Employment reports for the remaining months of this year
2. The actual number and extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year
3. The results of the U.S. election
The above 3 points will bring greater fluctuations to the market. In particular, the extent of the subsequent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can only be judged based on employment data, and we need to take it one step at a time. #美联储宣布降息50个基点 61677773873#美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #山寨季何时到来？ 25303250318 $BTC 83212886534 93061704998 37201860718 600411 71860

Interpretation of the Fed's first rate cut

Conclusion: A 50BP rate cut is ultimately a positive, so hold on tight #美联储宣布降息50个基点 #加密市场反弹 #BTC☀ #山寨季何时到来？
$BTC
$PEPE
$WIF

The market sentiment over the weekend was once again guided by Nick's tweets. Nick's tweets used an interesting word called "minimizing regrets", and today's explanation also made the market fully anticipate the possibility of the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut. What is minimizing regrets? That is, if the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points in September and is expected to continue to cut interest rates, then if the economy performs steadily before the November interest rate meeting and there are no negative effects, then the Fed will not regret choosing to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. But if the Fed chooses to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and if the economic situation deteriorates in the next period of time, then the Fed is likely to regret it because their actions lag behind the situation.
Before the Fed announced its decision, Nick's tweets have been guiding the market to accept a 50BP rate cut, and explained that it was not due to a recession, but more to achieve a soft landing of the economy. These inevitably make people wonder whether the Fed deliberately released rumors to prevent the 50BP rate cut from causing panic in the market. Moreover, the Fed has previously raised interest rates by 75BP many times, so it is not surprising to start the rate cut cycle with 50BP.
Blind guess is that the interest rate will be cut by 50BP tonight, and the cumulative interest rate cut is expected to be 100BP this year. After the meeting, Master Bao stated that the economic situation is good, but in order to better support the stable development of the economy, he chose to cut the interest rate by 50BP. #美联储利率决议公布在即 #美国8月零售销售环比好于预期 #山寨季何时到来？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #BTC☀ $BTC
$PEPE
$WIF

Last week, after a well-known Wall Street journalist published an article to warm up, the market's expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut rose sharply. As of last night, the expected probability of a 50 basis point rate cut rose to 67%. The market expectations are relatively aggressive. If the rate cut tomorrow is less than expected, it may face a correction in the short term.
However, there are also views that the Federal Reserve entered a silent period last week, and the article of the relevant journalist may be the news released by the Federal Reserve to let the market adapt to the 50 basis point rate cut in advance.
We should not only pay attention to the rate cut, but also pay attention to the dot plot forecast, as well as Powell's explanation of the rate cut after the meeting, especially his views on the US economy, which are extremely important to the subsequent market trend. In any case, the United States cut interest rates for the first time in 4 years, opening a monetary easing cycle, and the big one is coming. #美联储利率决议公布在即 #山寨季何时到来？ 67678272065#BTC☀ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ $BTC $PEPE $WIF 8416682 1363

Share a good article, analyzing the current market situation from the perspective of stablecoins

Use stablecoin data to judge the current investor trend, is it buying or selling?
A large number of USDT transfers into exchanges have exceeded the peak of the 21-year bull market, but most of these USDTs are still accumulating in exchanges, waiting for better opportunities.

USDC also exceeded the transfer volume of the 21-year bull market peak, and these USDCs did not form a large accumulation, but converted into purchasing power.

So it can be inferred that the main users in Asia and Europe have begun to lay out, but it is not time to end, but the daily transfer funds are increasing, and the accumulated funds are also increasing, so it should not be far from the outbreak period, and American investors have indeed been buying, and the purchase volume is not small.
#美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #美联储何时降息？ #山寨季何时到来？ $BTC $PEPE $WIF

Last night, the upward momentum continued, and BTC also broke through the $60,000 mark. The market's rise mainly came from an analysis article by Nick Timiraos, the "New Fed News Agency", which stated that "Federal Reserve policymakers are considering a 25 or 50 basis point cut. Starting with a 25 basis point rate cut is the path of least resistance, which can avoid market panic caused by a large rate cut and the challenge of explaining a large rate cut before the election. But if the Fed expects a total rate cut of 100 basis points this year, it may be a bit awkward to open with a 25 basis point range: since a larger rate cut is expected later this year, why not take such action earlier? On Friday, traders expected the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points to rise to about 47%, with a probability close to 50-50, while the probability expected on Thursday was only about 28%. Its From a practical point of view, the cumulative rate cut this year may be more important. If the cumulative rate cut is expected to be 100 basis points, there will definitely be a 50 basis point rate cut this year. Therefore, while paying attention to the first rate cut, we should also pay attention to the dot plot forecast released at the September interest rate meeting, which may better indicate the attitude of the Federal Reserve. #美国经济软着陆？ #美联储何时降息？ #BTC☀ #山寨季何时到来？
$BTC
$PEPE
$WIF

Stablecoins are used in more and more scenarios, not only for cryptocurrency transactions, but also for goods payment, salary payment, etc. Especially in developing countries such as Brazil and Nigeria. These have enabled more people to understand and use stablecoins, which is potentially conducive to the further popularization of cryptocurrencies such as BTC. At the same time, the trend of economic deglobalization has been obvious in recent years, and people's trust in governments, banks and legal currencies has declined. BTC, as a hedging tool for the global financial system, can cope with global chaos and geopolitical uncertainties.
#美降息25个基点预期升温 #美国经济软着陆？ #meme板块关注热点 #BTC☀ #山寨季何时到来？
$BTC
$PEPE
$WIF

Last night, U.S. stocks were mixed. Investors remained cautious and waited for Wednesday's CPI inflation data and the first debate between Trump and Harris, and no large-scale buying or selling occurred. The demand for the U.S. 3-year Treasury auction was strong, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.66, higher than the average of the previous six times, showing a strong emergence of risk aversion in the market in an environment of uncertain prospects. At the same time, the holdings of stablecoins in exchanges have increased rapidly since August. Although it may not necessarily form purchasing power, it can at least be regarded as potential purchasing funds. These investors are also waiting for the market trend to become clear before making decisions. Overall, the market's desire to buy is not strong now, and we need to wait patiently for the opportunity. 95% of the time in the investment process is boring market, and only 5% of the time is the real big market, so patience is our best weapon. #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #美国经济软着陆？ #美联储何时降息？ #BTC走势分析 #山寨季何时到来？ $BTC

Last night, the US stock market and BTC ended their decline since last week, and market sentiment has eased. Yesterday's analysis said that, according to the data in August, although the US employment situation showed signs of weakening, it is still far from a recession. If the market bets heavily on a recession, it will face greater risks. So we saw that the market recently bought the bottom of US stocks last night, and ETF funds bought the bottom of BTC. But now it cannot be said that the market situation has completely reversed. After all, the first interest rate cut has not yet begun, and the market has not seen signs that the US economy has stabilized and strengthened again. Important events this week include the first debate between Trump and Harris, and the August CPI data. The market is still volatile. In the short term, the current market is that if it rises too much, it will fall, and if it falls too much, it will rise. There is no need to be too pessimistic or too optimistic. Now is a good time to lay out the long-term currency. The current prices of many altcoins are at a relatively low level. In the second half of the bull market, we are still firmly optimistic about the meme sector. At least it is possible to maintain the growth of the medium-to-high performance sector. Continue to firmly hold the leading meme of pepe wif and wait for the market to explode. 7699431021129193738199#BTC走势分析 #山寨季何时到来？ 41864564520$BTC 55920988844 48390729753 70691127178 7383993 4245

Detailed explanation of August US non-farm data, 25BP rate cut is still the first choice #美国8月非农就业人数不及预期 #小非农增幅创3年多新低 #美联储何时降息？ #BTC走势分析 #山寨季何时到来？