The U.S. CPI for August, released last night, rose 2.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and significantly lower than the previous value of 2.9%, slowing down for the fifth consecutive month and the lowest level since February 2021; but the core CPI in August (excluding volatile food and energy costs) rose 0.3% month-on-month, slightly higher than the expected and previous value of 0.2%, the largest increase in four months. Wall Street analysts generally believe that the August CPI data has made the Fed's interest rate cut this month a foregone conclusion, but the month-on-month increase in core inflation is slightly higher than expected. It is expected that there will be no significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points in September, and the probability of a 25BP interest rate cut in September is expected to rise to more than 70%. This CPI data sends two signals to the market: First, inflation has fallen as expected; second, although the core CPI data exceeded market expectations, it also proves that there is no risk of deflation in the U.S. economy. Therefore, I personally think that this data should be more positive than negative for future market conditions.
On the other hand, Huang Renxun's speech last night led to a sharp rebound in NVID's stock price, which in turn led to a V-shaped reversal of the entire US stock market, showing the impact of NVID as a market leader on US stocks. This also shows that the current US stock AI theme investment can offset the external environment of the market to a certain extent and develop a relatively independent market. The currency circle does not currently have the ability to develop an independent market, after all, it is too young and there is no explosive narrative at present.
Finally, let's talk about the subsequent market trends. At present, the entire market is waiting for a rate cut. However, I have seen some people say that the expectation of a rate cut has been fully priced in, and even if the rate cut is cut, it will not have much impact. Personally, I think that there should be very few price-ins for the positive effects of a rate cut, whether in the US stock market or the cryptocurrency market. The previous rise in the US stock market was mainly driven by M7, and the rise in M7 was mainly due to high growth performance and the wave of AI investment. The positive impact of the rate cut was not significant; the previous rise in the cryptocurrency market was mainly due to the positive effects of the ETF passing, and it has been fluctuating afterwards, and there has not been a unilateral rise in the expected rate cut before. Coupled with the market's concerns about an economic recession, it has increased selling and chosen to hold cash and wait and see.
I personally expect that the conditions for the U.S. stock and currency circles to resume their rise in the future: multiple rounds of interest rate cuts (significant increase in market liquidity) + stable growth of the U.S. economy (requires improvement in employment, GDP and other data after interest rate cuts, thereby reducing the risk of hedge funds and money funds) Increased preferences) + AI investment wave continues (M7 performance maintains rapid growth), and is expected to start in the first quarter of 2025.
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