$BTC
Jerome Powell will speak on August 23rd.
It is expected that in his speech he will say that inflation has returned to the expected 2%. But since large players need a lower price to purchase assets, it turns out that the window of opportunity is narrowing. It is highly likely that by the 23rd we will go south, to the region of 55-56 thousand.

#BTC
Judging by the greed and fear index, we are not yet on the threshold of a bull run. If we compare previous cycles, the bull run began after the index went to the level of 10-14. I don't think there will be any exceptions in this cycle. If the scheme works, then why change it.

Historically, August was the most rotten month.

I think there will still be some FUD on the market. After which the price will be driven down. (It is quite possible that we will update the low, but not by much). In any case, noticeable growth, if there is, will only be in September.

$BTC
30-31 Fed meeting. Around this time, I’m waiting for the military-technical cooperation to reach 58 thousand. The rate will most likely be left unchanged. Considering the sanitary market, this will be a reason to close the gap that hangs on the Chicago Stock Exchange.

$ETH
The ratio of put options to calls expiring on July 26 increased to 0.45. This indicates the desire of traders to insure long positions against falling prices.
The greatest open interest is concentrated in contracts with a strike price of $3,700. In other words, traders expect a movement to this level in the coming days, writes The Block.
Previously, I wrote that I expect to see ETH this week at $3,800. But based on these introductory notes, I think that we will see 3800 only after the 26th. In other words, most likely the issuer of ETH options will not want to part with the money and will keep the price below 3700 until the expiration date. And then waiting for the Fed meeting, which will also not add growth.

$ETH
Thoughts on air.
Knowing that the crypto market is pure manipulation, my expectations are that by the end of the month we will see the market drawdown to 59 thousand per BTC. There are two reasons. First and foremost: major players will sell ether to hamsters. I expect that sales will begin when Ether reaches a price of approximately 3800. Now the crowd is warming up in anticipation of the start of trading in ETH. Brokers will advise you to buy it. BTC is likely to go sideways this weekend. And at the beginning of the week it will grow a little. Because now a lot of people are going short. And they will be shaved. In a week there will be a Fed meeting and the likelihood that the rate will not be lowered will be high. And this is FUD for the market. And based on these expectations, the military-technical cooperation will close the gap that hangs on the Chicago stock exchange. And it’s August, it’s time for vacations.

$BTC
On July 10, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $147.4 million. The positive trend continued for the fourth day in a row, according to SoSoValue.
During the specified period, investors invested $801.7 million in instruments.
The price of BTC is attractive for purchase despite all the recent FUD. There was information that the entry price for large whales was approximately 55 thousand. And the current local bottom confirms this. I assume that the chart is going south to remove liquidity by 51 thousand. A move even lower is unlikely (unless politics intervenes). Some positive news is the launch of trading on ETH. I think that the schedule’s march to the north will begin the day before, when the exact date is set. And this campaign will continue until the end of July and the market will freeze in anticipation of the Fed’s decision on the interest rate. The meeting will take place on July 30-31. There is a high probability that it will be left at the same level. Then it's time for vacations. they also want to relax on Wall Street.
And I don’t yet understand why Standard Chartered maintained expectations for Bitcoin to return to ATH in August.
The only explanation: during the holidays it is easier to manipulate.
In short: I’m waiting for the market to move with the launch of ETH trading and waiting for the traditional decline in August.

$BTC
Yesterday was a very good day for market manipulation and it happened. I think that all this fall took place before the start of ETH trading. I wrote about the likelihood of this situation this week. But I thought we’d go to 56, but we went to 53.5. I think that manipulation up to 51 is possible over the weekend. There is a lot of liquidity at the top and this dump was arranged in order to take it with less investment. The whales are not interested in the market collapsing.
We are waiting for ETH trading.

$BTC

To continue the development of the rebound from the lows of June, it is important for Bitcoin to overcome the $65,000 mark. This level corresponds to the “cost” of coins purchased by short-term investors, writes CoinDesk.
In other words, speculators, at a price of $63,300 at the time of writing, are holding Bitcoin in the red and may get rid of the coins when they reach breakeven, noted Blockware Intelligence. According to analysts, digital gold prices have fallen below the total value of short-term holders for the first time since August 2023.

Based on these data, I think that the BTC will not show growth until the whales shake out the coins of their short-term speculators. Big players don't need freeloaders. So I think that the hike to 56-57 will take place.

What is written here does not constitute investment advice...

#Bitcoin
With the approval of the BTC ETF, a lot of capital came into the market and it began to behave like a stock market and is very tied to news. Today there was news that ETH trading was postponed for at least a week. There is a high probability that it will be released into the market only after 12.07. This is FUD for the market. I expected growth next week. But due to these delays, I think we will have to wait a couple of weeks. Most likely we will be marinated with this sidebar in the range of 60-62. And I think there will be a squeeze at 56. The fear index is 30. Not so little. The whales want to dump as many freeloaders as possible.
This is not financial advice, just my opinion.

#Bitcoin
Today the greed and fear index is 30. The last time such an indicator was a year ago. It's time to think about shopping.
I myself expect the MTC exchange rate to increase after July 2. Since 28.06. Expiration date of options (which I have written about more than once). Then the weekend. I don’t rule out going to 56. There was information that this is the entry price for large institutions.
Altcoins are practically not falling anymore. Many interesting coins are now below their listing price.

#BTC

June 28 is the expiration date for quarterly options. I think that all the movements will come after. The issuer will not want to part with the money and will maintain the price. And the greed index is high. Everyone is waiting for growth. And the manipulative market here usually goes against the crowd. I’m sure they’ll bring it down to 60 or even lower.

$BTC
The daily time frame of the cue ball shows a sideways movement in the corridor of 60-70 thousand, given that the crowd is waiting for growth, they can be driven to a specific south. How often does this happen? If we drop to 64, we will very likely see 60. I repeat that a figure is emerging - a double top. With a hike to the price of 52. But I hope it won’t reach it, since large institutions will keep 55-56, this is their entry point. The altcoin market is very weak. There are coins that now have a price lower than the listing price. I advise you to take a closer look at them this day. When the military-technical cooperation reaches 60, I will buy it back. Shorting in a bull market is not a good idea, so I won’t.

$BTC
If you look at the cue ball chart on the daily time frame, you will see something very similar to a double top. Against the background of news that there are inflows into ETF funds and people are investing, they can shave by going to 52,000.
It’s alarming that from every source they talk about how large inflows of liquidity are, but for some reason the graph doesn’t go north.

Let's take a quick look at the main points of fundamental analysis. I repeat - superficially.
It's no secret that the price rises on an event or in anticipation of an event. If we remember last year, the rise in the price of BTC began with rumors that the bear market was ending, then everyone was waiting for the adoption of ETFs, then everyone was waiting for the halving. And we received the ATN precisely in anticipation of the event, although everyone understood perfectly well that halving would not have a real impact on the market in the short term. Yes, its importance is no longer so great because more than 93% of BTC has already been mined.
What now?
What event are we waiting for?
Summer is ahead with the holiday season and a decrease in business activity. Halving has passed. Due to the correction and the rotten market, an outflow of funds from funds began. It can be assumed that in May the SEC will say something about ETH, but everyone understands that the chances of ETF adoption are negligible. They will be accepted, but most likely in the fall. I also had thoughts that perhaps some big market maker was reacting to the news, following the Fed meeting, he was driving the price to the top, collecting liquidity for the bears. But from such a position, it is probably not advisable to do this in a rotten market. And again the question: What event or expectation of what event?
As a result, we are waiting for a side with a slight increase. The positive of this event is that a certain stability will lead to a flow of funds into altcoins. I think Ethereum will begin to grow, it is greatly undervalued. Another positive is that the market is waiting for a reduction in the financing rate and there is a high probability that they will do this before the elections.
In short: it’s probably time to go on vacation 🤪

$PYTH
Thoughts on PYTH. Unlock soon.
A good project with a lot of large capital. It, like Chailink, is a technology for providing information. Only Cailink works on the ETH network and PYTH works on the SOL network. If you open Drop Tab, you will see many large funds that own this project and I am sure that there will be manipulation. Among the investors we can see Wintermute (a large market maker). We were able to find information on how much this project cost investors. The total supply of coins is 10 billion. Currently 15% of the total has been unlocked. On May 20, 2024, a large unlock of 21.25% of the total supply is expected. This is more than what is going on now. Since the funds came here to earn money, it’s logical for them to start pumping it now so that they can sell it with a good margin when it’s unlocked. But again, if the military-technical cooperation continues to grow, or at least sideways. Of course, no one is going to kill this coin, because a lot has been invested in it, but a strong drawdown is quite looming on the horizon.

Today I came across a publication about Jordon Belfort, this is the same (The Wolf of Wall Street) played by DiCaprio.
If you look at his old interviews, he constantly states that military-technical cooperation is nothing more than a means of money laundering and there is an element of a pyramid in it.
Now it's the other way around. Over time, this person recognized MTC and ETH as a good financial instrument and clearly not a SCAM. And most importantly, he is not one of this pool of conservatives who has changed his mind. The adoption of spot ETFs I think played a big role in this. Many large players who trade traditional assets and securities have now begun to look at military-technical cooperation. Previously, they spat at the word cryptocurrency, but now crypto takes up more and more space in the reviews of these exchange players. And the impression is that they will soon be selling only her. (a joke, but the spitting thing is not a joke). Many serious and experienced players are coming to the crypto market.
I am writing all this because I have come to understand that it will not be the same as before. Old patterns will not work. Many are trying to predict the market based on the 2020 scenario. I think this is a big mistake. There were no ETFs back then. The world is becoming different. Even the whales are getting crowded in the market. The hamsters haven't really caught up yet.
I expect many surprises this season...

Since last weekend, we have been observing a drawdown in the BTC. Many were sure that these were consequences of the Iran-Israel conflict. I didn’t believe in this version for a long time, but then, under pressure from various sources, I also accepted this point of view: sell on threats and buy on invasions. But I was wrong and I misled you too. New introductory information has arrived and everything is becoming more or less clear. Let's start with the fact that I am firmly convinced that military-technical cooperation at a distance is an excellent means of saving money, especially at this moment in time, and parting with it because of a conflict is simply stupid. Switching to the dollar when oil prices rise and inflation accelerates is not the best idea. But the reality is a little different. On April 15, Pindos had a tax deadline and many big players withdrew funds for these procedures. The fact that on April 15th all assets feel bad is a statistically proven thing. And immediately a spoiler: the whales spent money on taxes, what will they do? Of course they need to recoup these costs. The Iran-Israel conflict is just a sign that a big player used to cut long-term investors and collect liquidity. Tonight we also observed a long squeeze that coincided with Israel’s attack on Iran. But I am sure that there is no geopolitics here either. Yesterday was a reversal day and a lot of risky heads flew into positions with shoulders under 100X. We saw a classic pattern of these hotheads taking out. They were taken out and the VTS quickly returned. Another factor in this theory is that the expiration date for options had approached and no one on the exchanges wanted to give up their liquidity. Now, if you take the place of a big player, then it is logical to go up to the 68-70 zone where there is a very large number of short positions and update the high on their stops. To fully collect liquidity, this must be done quickly but competently, with kickbacks. If you delay, many may jump out of this submarine. Moreover, Tether printed another billion, and two days ago a billion. Now they can easily bring us down to 80, marinate for a week to attract new players with information noise that we are going to a new high and lower us to 60

Yesterday I watched one blogger who promises us Bitcoin at 150. And I always want to ask them such a smart question: how will it grow? For its growth, investors or some kind of news are needed. Where is all this? Purchases from Black rock are slowing down. Plus, now miners will start selling cue balls to support their pants during the drawdown. We were waiting for ETFs in Hong Kong, but everything is not simple there either. The Communist Party is monitoring what is happening. And this story with Iran and Israel showed how weak altcoins are. You might think that hamsters will come. But they seem to have wised up and are not going. There are many stories in the information field about people losing money. And they won’t come if there is such a rally here. The average investor is scared, but the big one has already made purchases. So what should the cue ball grow on? The only option is if the Pindos start handing out helicopter money before the elections. But this is also not soon.
I don't expect rapid growth. I think we will be shying away in this price range for a long time.

Cue begins the new week with a fight to recover. The past weekend with intense geopolitical events pushed the anticipation of the upcoming halving into the background. With only four days left after this weekend's slaughterhouse, traders' attention remains focused on price rather than the biggest online event, which has essentially been counting down for months.
Miners are at the forefront of change: their income will change in an instant as the number of new BTC in each mined block will drop by 50%. According to research, miners are increasing selling pressure due to this event.
However, the latest data from analytics company Glassnode shows that BTC balances in the wallets of established miners have remained virtually unchanged since late March. After the halving, revenues are predicted to fall and large companies will be forced to compensate for expenses by selling coins that are currently on their balance sheet until the cost of Bitcoin increases and mining becomes profitable again. Miners will also need funds to replace outdated equipment with more efficient ones. Now the old ASICs are being finalized for the last few days. There will be a smooth drain of coins.
As I wrote earlier, I don’t think that there will be a sharp increase in price after the halving.
Although the adoption of spot ETFs in Hong Kong may change the picture.
“More ETFs, easier for China to access through Hong Kong,” tweeted popular commentator WhalePanda. “Very bullish.”
Operators such as China Asset Management, Harvest Global Investments and Bosera Asset Management will reportedly launch crypto-currency products traded at spot prices. This comes as US ETFs face a general slowdown in inflows after a meteoric rise in March that saw the price of BTC soar to all-time highs.
In the end, I think that there will be an option to rise to ATN and go sideways with a slight gradual increase.
I repeat that this is only my opinion and is in no way investment advice.

Following the results of two days of slaughter, many are asking the question: “Why are altcoins falling by a much greater ratio than Bitcoin? In percentage terms. If Bitcoin fell in total about 10%, then the losses of some coins amounted to 30 percent or more.
The answer is quite simple: Altcoins have very little liquidity compared to Bitcoin. Bitcoin's capitalization currently stands at 1 trillion 271 billion. And the adoption of the spot ETF only strengthened its capitalization. For example, the capitalization of the same SOL is currently 62 billion dollars. How many projects like Solana are needed to be comparable to Bitcoin? And if you take out a billion from BTC and a billion from SOL, who will feel the difference faster? I think the answer is clear.
At the moment there are not many institutional players in the altcoin market, and are there any at all? There are whales and retail traders. But these traders do not bring as much liquidity as whales and this situation will continue until a retail investor comes, or hamsters in common parlance. That's when Bull Run begins. They announced to us that it had supposedly begun, but this is not so. One of the indicators of the beginning of a bull run is an increase in search engine queries on the topic (what is Bitcoin and how to buy it) or housewives talking about Bitcoin at a public transport stop. To attract hamsters, news about cryptocurrency is now heard from every iron: Bitcoin has fallen... Bitcoin has risen... Or posts about how some smart trader made a million out of 100 dollars.
All this is to attract hamsters. The whales must sell to someone what they bought at the bottom of the market.