Shib Doge was the coin with the most retail investors entering back in the day, and today it is also the hottest altcoin. The reason is that they provided retail investors with an entry ticket.

Normally, retail investors enter with a few hundred or a few thousand dollars to test the waters; no one would buy Bitcoin. Retail investors are the foundation of a bull market.

So when a mad bull market arrives, to attract countless retail investors, it must be altcoins, and it has to be altcoins to draw in more outsiders. The last wave was Pepe, and they all have a common characteristic: 0 and more. This is also the speculative psychology of human nature, so there's no need to worry. As long as you buy into popular sectors and popular coins, everything will rotate and take off.

#美国大选后涨或跌？ #BNB季度销毁

The U.S. non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate to be released at 8:30 PM tonight;
U.S. Election Day on November 5;
FOMC interest rate decision to be announced on November 7.

These recent important events will significantly impact the movement of Bitcoin, and it is estimated that the subsequent trend of the crypto market will become clearer after November 7.

Therefore, recent actions should focus on observation and reduce operations.

#市场关注美国非农数据 #比特币白皮书16周年

Shorting Bitcoin?

Taking 70-80k as an example:

First short: 72300-74000 range, catch the high point of 73300-73600 to short, take profit on the pullback to 72300-71850. Stop loss at 74000. This is the first strong oscillation zone within 1w points, which will oscillate back and forth repeatedly, can be repeatedly entered until it breaks 74000. If the overall trend is upwards, this is a short-term short.

Second short: 76600-77700 range, catch the high point of 77650 to short, take profit on the pullback to 76600-75600. Stop loss at 78250. This is the second strong oscillation zone within 1w points, which will oscillate back and forth repeatedly, can be repeatedly entered until it breaks 78250. If the overall trend is upwards, this is a short-term short.

Third short: 79300-79888 range, catch the high point of 79600 to short, take profit in batches on the pullback to 78800-72800 (fish head and fish body). No need to set a stop loss. BTC will pull back 6-8k points for every full 1w point increase. If the overall trend is upwards, this is the true highest point for a medium-term short.

Other small points do not need to be traded, as they are not easy to grasp.

#下一BTC历史新高是多少？ #TIA超大额解锁

The day before yesterday, people said BTC had stabilized at 72,000, and since it couldn't drop any further, many directly called for 80k, 100k. I directly refuted that and emphasized it was impossible to reach 80k before the election. A few days ago, my thought process was based on the following two points (I briefly analyzed the rhythm in a post the day before yesterday):

1. There isn't enough time. Last Sunday, when going long, I emphasized that this Thursday (Core PCE) and Friday (the last non-farm payroll before the election) night could see a price spike. It was clear that there would be a rise from Monday to Wednesday, but a drop on Thursday and Friday; it is impossible for the market to rise for five consecutive days, which has been a long-standing weekly pattern that I had mentioned a few days in advance. By Wednesday, when BTC reached 73,600, it was hovering in the range of 72,300-72,900 in sideways consolidation. Wednesday was already October 30, and Thursday was October 31, which I viewed as bearish. Then Friday was November 1, also bearish, and November 2-3 was the weekend with little market activity. November 4-5 was the next Monday and Tuesday, after which the election results would basically come out late on the 5th, causing volatility when the results are announced. Even if Trump is elected, it would turn into a sell-off after the initial positive reaction. If Harris is elected, it would be a significant short-term negative. Therefore, November 5 is a turning point, and it wouldn't directly push towards 80k but would first pull back. The short-term rebound could only occur within 24 hours before the election, from Monday night to Tuesday daytime. Is it possible to rally 8k points in just 24 hours on Monday or Tuesday? Almost impossible. Hence, I started to reduce long positions by 60% on Wednesday morning, and cut back on spot positions.

2. The price level does not allow it. The range of 72,300-74,000 is the first strong volatility zone for the 70k-80k range, and it has been the strongest resistance that has not been broken this year. This position cannot be stabilized in just one, two, or three attempts; subsequent rebounds to 75,500-76,000 will also repeatedly test this range. If this level is not broken before Thursday, there will be no hope this week, as spikes are expected on Thursday and Friday. Therefore, when BTC broke 70k and reached 71,550 on Tuesday, I locked in the 72,300-74,000 range for shorting (it reached around 73,600 early Wednesday) and emphasized that it was easy to profit from shorting here. Shorting at high levels is very safe, and even if it touches 74,000-75,000 again, it is still within the range for adding positions. This conclusion for shorting high came from this logic and not directly from the market conditions, as there had been no signs of a pullback in the market for several days; it was excessively strong.

The price levels can be adjusted, and the strategy originates from one’s own thoughts on market changes, which is the core.

As expected, it has dropped. Are you keeping up?

Yesterday morning, I analyzed that the MACD death cross on the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin would lead to a drop.

By the evening, the U.S. released the September core PCE price index data, which exceeded expectations. After the U.S. stock market opened, it immediately plunged. With the combination of technical analysis and news stimulus, the drop in BTC became inevitable. It has now fallen below the $70,000 mark, and altcoins are also performing a diving act.

Returning to today's market analysis: From the candlestick chart, #BTC☀ BTC on the 1-hour level shows a downtrend, the 4-hour level is also down, the 12-hour level has just entered a downtrend, and the daily level has not yet officially confirmed a downtrend.

(If it can recover the $70,700 mark today, it will temporarily avoid entering a downtrend.) The intraday resistance level is $71,700, and the support level is $68,300.
#市场关注美国非农数据 #PCE年率超预期

To play memes well, you must become a high-end scumbag (or woman):

1. Look more and act less; don’t approach every girl you see. In the real world, we refer to those who flirt with every woman they meet as "simps"; they end up with nothing in the end.

2. When encountering a well-narrated golden dog, you must chase at the right moment. A true scumbag is never afraid of any competitors. As long as the goddess is charming enough, even if she starts at position 7, you must strive for position 1, because that has the highest value.

3. When you successfully get together with the goddess, do not relax. You need to see if the girl you are with is suitable for a short-term fling or a long-term relationship. Observe her various performances and data; if the data continues to decline after getting together, then break up in time (sell out), otherwise, you may get trapped.

4. The highest achievement of a high-end scumbag is always to find an ugly duckling with the potential to become a swan and accompany her growth. In the end, you will become the admired protector of flowers, so you must hold on to any potential chips at the bottom.

5. Remember, you are a scumbag, not a good man. Being a scumbag requires polyamory; do not be loyal to any single partner. When you encounter a new narrative, you must engage. If any partner’s value drops because you have a new partner, then consider whether to break up; a meme that can easily be drained is not a good meme.

6. High-end scumbags always prefer natural beauty, so remember to go for those with natural looks. Don’t casually choose those who have had surgery, as they usually have artificial faces.

7. In this era, being called a scumbag is not an easy thing. You not only need to have money but also a good physique and stamina, along with emotional value. Therefore, to play memes well, you must first learn cost control, placing the right chips on each girlfriend. Secondly, you must take care of your health, exercise more, and build fitness. Only with abundant energy can you maintain clear operations. Additionally, read more, learn from other scumbags, and absorb the strengths of other meme masters to integrate and apply them.

The above also applies to scumbags.

I hope all friends can ultimately evolve into

Scumbag Gods

Becoming the new generation of on-chain kings

#美国大选后行情预测 #下一BTC历史新高是多少？

The biggest value of ETH so far should be in its smart contracts,

Smart contracts mean there can be numerous innovations at the underlying mechanism level.

This is why DeFi has boosted ETH and many L1s.

The logic of memes is exactly the opposite; memes do not require any mechanism.

With this explanation, you understand why ETH is weak in this cycle, right?

#美国大选后行情预测 #下一BTC历史新高是多少？

Yesterday, in the absence of significant market fluctuations, BlackRock once again purchased 12,000 Bitcoin, valued at nearly 900 million. This is known as arbitrage funds, buying in the spot market and shorting in the futures market where there is a premium;

When arbitrage funds of this scale and level enter the market, it indicates that the market is nearing its final stages. Therefore, what people actually observe is that when there is a large inflow of ETF funds, it represents a peak, and when there is a large outflow of ETF funds, it represents a bottom;

#美国大选后行情预测 #小非农ADP走高

69000$: 99% of people dare to buy, 1% cut their losses.

53000S: 95% of people dare to buy, 5% cut their losses.

48000$: 93% of people dare to buy, 7% cut their losses.

45000$: 90% of people dare to buy, 10% cut their losses.

40000$: 80% of people dare to buy, 20% cut their losses.

38000$: 72% of people dare to buy, 28% cut their losses.

35000$: 60% of people dare to buy, 40% cut their losses.

33000$: 50% of people dare to buy, 50% cut their losses.

30000$: 30% of people dare to buy, 70% cut their losses.

25000$: 5% of people dare to buy, 95% cut their losses.

Look!!! That's human nature.

The more dangerous the high position, the more most people rush in like moths to a flame.

The lower the value, the more most people flee in panic.

This is why in the cryptocurrency world, 10% of people make profits and 90% of people lose money.

When you cultivate this kind of reverse thinking, you will be close to the other side of victory.

#金价持续走高 #小非农ADP走高

Investing in the cryptocurrency world is a long journey; one cannot always rely on a tailwind, nor can there be instances of catastrophic failure. The key is to keep moving forward, with the mission to succeed.

Those who view returns on a daily basis believe in miracles and luck;

Those who aim for returns on an annual basis believe in talent and ability;

Those who plan their finances with a 3-5 year cycle believe in courage and vision;

Those who think about wealth over a 10-year period believe in common sense and compound interest;

Those who view wealth over a longer cycle believe in the times and fate.

#美国大选后行情预测 #下一BTC历史新高是多少？

International News

1. The preliminary annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP for the United States in Q3 recorded 2.8%, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The preliminary annualized quarter-on-quarter Core PCE Price Index recorded 2.2%, higher than the expected 2.1%, but lower than the previous value of 2.8%.

2. The ADP employment number for October in the United States recorded 233,000, the largest increase since March 2024, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 114,000.

3. Multiple sources indicate a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is imminent.

4. The Kremlin denied reports regarding "preliminary negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to stop attacks on each other's energy facilities."

5. Sources say that OPEC+ may delay the planned production increase originally scheduled for December by a month or longer.

6. Germany's seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for Q3 was better than expected, prompting traders to reduce the expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank in December, lowering the probability from around 45% to 22%.

7. The UK's autumn budget shows a tax increase of £40 billion; the tax on private equity profits will be raised to 32%; the lower rate of capital gains tax will be increased from 10% to 18%, and the higher rate will be raised to 24%; fuel tax will not be increased next year.

8. World Gold Council: The total global demand for gold in Q3 2024 was 1,313 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%.

#美国大选后行情预测 #小非农ADP走高