Guys, last night the PCE data was released in line with expectations and one rate cut is currently expected in June.


The sudden announcement of tariffs by the White House shocked the market, and BTC fell 2%. Trump confirmed that he would impose a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods from February 1.

In the future, the United States will announce tariffs against EU countries. Trump's every move will affect the market. Short-term negative factors exist at any time. If a black swan appears, the currency circle will plunge deeply.


Although this callback is a black swan, it has little impact on the cryptocurrency market and is a normal callback wave. I think the market will recover the lost ground last night relatively quickly. The liquidity of this wave is around 107000 + target 108000. After reaching the target, there may be a second callback. It is a good place to do swing trading.


From on-chain data analysis:


(1) Stablecoins have been flowing out of exchanges these days, currently back to the value of January 15.

(2) BTC has been flowing out of exchanges within 24 hours, with Binance inflowing 3,000 BTC, but the overall outflow from exchanges is 5,000 BTC.


Next is a prolonged battle, gradually increasing the buying cost of BTC in the struggle between bears and bulls, forming the next accumulation period in anticipation of an explosion!


Bearish forces:


1. U.S. economic data shows inflation.
2. Unexpected black swans, such as selling coins in Mentougou, and someone from Trump's family coming out to issue a coin.
3. The AI bubble is burst, and U.S. stocks plummet, such as events like DeepSeek happening two more times.

Bullish forces:


1. U.S. economic data shows inflation is decreasing.


2. Trump's cryptocurrency policy is implemented.


3. The BTC strategic reserves of various U.S. states are implemented.


4. Large capital seeking returns outside the U.S. stock market continues to buy and stock up on coins.


In this prolonged battle, it's advised for large funds to stock up on coins, while small funds participate in the on-chain primary market for small gains.


The recent market trend is that there are hotspots every day, but they don't last long. It's all about whether you dare to hold; as long as you are bold enough, you can wake up to a zero market.


If you want to eat, just transfer the money out, don't leave it in this market, it's nice to have some good food. The group is filled every day with questions of whether there will be a chance to break even. If you think about it, where did the money go? Where is there still money for everyone to break even? You can only honestly 'beg' and see if you can beg for enough 'dog fund' to make it through the New Year; if not, you still want to cut a wave.

The money has all gone to 'the people who withdraw funds,' and it all comes from AI + SOL + ETH + etc.

The subsequent market may have come to the exchanges, and the on-chain has turned into a 'cesspool' again. Don't forget that batch of $LUCE; it fell 90% and then fell another 90% without waiting for its day to come 😮‍💨.

Take profits, take profits. Next time, the time after that, and the time after that, definitely win!!!